Milan Scasny

Does the Cause of Death Matter? The Effect of Dread, Controllability, Exposure and Latency on the Vsl

The Value of a Statistical Life is a key input into the calculation of the benefits of environmental policies that save lives. To date, the VSL used in environmental policy analyses has not been adjusted for age or the cause of death. Air pollution regulations, however, are linked to reductions in the risk of dying for cancer, heart disease, and respiratory illnesses, raising the question whether a single VSL should be applied for all of these causes of death. We conducted a conjoint choice experiment survey in Milan, Italy, to investigate this question. We find that the VSL increases with dread, exposure, the respondents’ assessments of the baseline risks, and experience with the specific risks being studied. The VSL is higher when the risk reduction is delivered by a public program, and increases with the effectiveness rating assigned by the respondent to public programs that address specific causes of death. The effectiveness of private risk-reducing behaviors is also positively associated with the VSL, but the effect is only half as large as that of public program effectiveness. The coefficients on dummies for the cause of death per se—namely, whether it’s cancer, a road traffic accident or a respiratory illness—are strongly statistically significant. All else the same, the fact that the cause of the death is “cancer” results in a VSL that is almost one million euro above the amount predicted by dread, exposure, beliefs, etc. The VSL in the road safety context is about one million euro less than what is predicted by dread, exposure, beliefs, etc. These effects are large, but the majority of the variation in the VSL is accounted for by the public program feature, the effectiveness of public programs at reducing the indicated risk, and dread. The effects of exposure and experience are smaller. These results raise the question whether using VSL figures based on private risk reduction, which is usually recommended to avoid double-counting, severely understates how much a society might be willing to pay for public safety.

Taxing air pollutants and carbon individually or jointly: results from a CGE model enriched by an emission abatement sector

ABSTRACT We analyse the separate and collective impacts of emissions taxation to understand the internalisation effects of externalities. The analysis is carried out using a static computable general equilibrium model, with unemployment, bottom-up abatement technologies represented by a step function, and detailed emission coefficients. Environmental and health external costs are quantified using the ExternE’s Impact Pathway Approach. Emissions, as a result of environmental taxation, fall through reduced output, production factor substitution, and increased end of pipe abatement activity. The analysis shows that a full internalisation of environmental externalities can result in modest overall economic and environmental welfare gains. There are, however, differences in terms of employment and output, depending on what combination of taxes are applied, which sectors are covered, and how fiscal revenues are redistributed. Air quality benefits range from €35–75 per ton of CO2 abated. Total environmental benefits always exceed GDP loss and the associated welfare loss.

Évaluation des risques environnementaux pour la santé des enfants

La reduction des risques environnementaux a-t-elle plus de valeur lorsqu’il s’agit d’enfants que lorsqu’il s’agit d’adultes ? Et si oui, quelles sont les consequences pour l’action des pouvoirs publics ? Produit final du projet sur l’evaluation des impacts sur la sante lies a l’environnement (VERHI), ce rapport expose les resultats de nouveaux travaux de recherche consacres a cette importante question de politique de l’environnement. Les auteurs presentent des estimations de la VVS (valeur d’une vie statistique) des enfants et des adultes qui sont produites sur la base de nouvelles approches methodologiques de l’evaluation de la sante des enfants. Ces travaux se distinguent par la dimension internationale des enquetes (realisees en Italie, en Republique tcheque et au Royaume-Uni) et par un travail approfondi de mise au point. Les resultats du projet sont multiples : deux nouveaux instruments d’enquete reposant sur des approches methodologiques differentes ; de nouvelles estimations de la VVS des adultes et des enfants ; une analyse des effets du contexte et d’autres facteurs sur les preferences en matiere de risques ; des moyens originaux de presenter les risques, dont divers supports visuels ; et des enseignements qui permettent de degager des pistes interessantes en vue de nouvelles etudes.