Milena Santric-Milicevic

Physician and nurse supply in Serbia using time-series data

BackgroundUnemployment among health professionals in Serbia has risen in the recent past and continues to increase. This highlights the need to understand how to change policies to meet real and projected needs. This study identified variables that were significantly related to physician and nurse employment rates in the public healthcare sector in Serbia from 1961 to 2008 and used these to develop parameters to model physician and nurse supply in the public healthcare sector through to 2015.MethodsThe relationships among six variables used for planning physician and nurse employment in public healthcare sector in Serbia were identified for two periods: 1961 to 1982 and 1983 to 2008. Those variables included: the annual total national population; gross domestic product adjusted to 1994 prices; inpatient care discharges; outpatient care visits; students enrolled in the first year of medical studies at public universities; and the annual number of graduated physicians. Based on historic trends, physician supply and nurse supply in the public healthcare sector by 2015 (with corresponding 95% confidence level) have been modeled using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) / Transfer function (TF) models.ResultsThe ARIMA/TF modeling yielded stable and significant forecasts of physician supply (stationary R2 squared = 0.71) and nurse supply (stationary R2 squared = 0.92) in the public healthcare sector in Serbia through to 2015. The most significant predictors for physician employment were the population and GDP. The supply of nursing staff was, in turn, related to the number of physicians. Physician and nurse rates per 100,000 population increased by 13%. The model predicts a seven-year mismatch between the supply of graduates and vacancies in the public healthcare sector is forecasted at 8,698 physicians - a net surplus.ConclusionThe ARIMA model can be used to project trends, especially those that identify significant mismatches between forecasted supply of physicians and vacancies and can be used to guide decision-making for enrollment planning for the medical schools in Serbia. Serbia needs an inter-sectoral strategy for HRH development that is more coherent with healthcare objectives and more accountable in terms of professional mobility.

Training hospital managers for strategic planning and management: a prospective study

BackgroundTraining is the systematic acquisition of skills, rules, concepts, or attitudes and is one of the most important components in any organization’s strategy. There is increasing demand for formal and informal training programs especially for physicians in leadership positions. This study determined the learning outcomes after a specific training program for hospital management teams.MethodsThe study was conducted during 2006 and 2007 at the Centre School of Public Health and Management, Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade and included 107 participants involved in the management in 20 Serbian general hospitals. The management teams were multidisciplinary, consisting of five members on average: the director of the general hospital, the deputy directors, the head nurse, and the chiefs of support services. The managers attended a training program, which comprised four modules addressing specific topics. Three reviewers independently evaluated the level of management skills at the beginning and 12 months after the training program. Principal component analysis and subsequent stepwise multiple linear regression analysis were performed to determine predictors of learning outcomes.ResultsThe quality of the SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analyses performed by the trainees improved with differences between 0.35 and 0.49 on a Likert scale (p < 0.001). Principal component analysis explained 81% of the variance affecting their quality of strategic planning. Following the training program, the external environment, strategic positioning, and quality of care were predictors of learning outcomes. The four regression models used showed that the training program had positive effects (p < 0.001) on the ability to formulate a Strategic Plan comprising the hospital mission, vision, strategic objectives, and action plan.ConclusionThis study provided evidence that training for strategic planning and management enhanced the strategic decision-making of hospital management teams, which is a requirement for hospitals in an increasingly competitive, complex and challenging context. For the first time, half of state general hospitals involved in team training have formulated the development of an official strategic plan. The positive effects of the formal training program justify additional investment in future education and training.

Socioeconomic Inequalities in Mental Health of Adult Population: Serbian National Health Survey

BACKGROUND The global burden of mental disorders is rising. In Serbia, anxiety is the leading cause of disability-adjusted life years. Serbia has no mental health survey at the population level. The information on prevalence of mental disorders and related socioeconomic inequalities are valuable for mental care improvement. AIMS To explore the prevalence of mental health disorders and socioeconomic inequalities in mental health of adult Serbian population, and to explore whether age years and employment status interact with mental health in urban and rural settlements. STUDY DESIGN Cross-sectional study. METHODS This study is an additional analysis of Serbian Health Survey 2006 that was carried out with standardized household questionnaires at the representative sample of 7673 randomly selected households - 15563 adults. The response rate was 93%. A multivariate logistic regression modeling highlighted the predictors of the 5 item Mental Health Inventory (MHI-5), and of chronic anxiety or depression within eight independent variables (age, gender, type of settlement, marital status and self-perceived health, education, employment status and Wealth Index). The significance level in descriptive statistics, chi square analysis and bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions was set at p<0.05. RESULTS Chronic anxiety or depression was seen in 4.9% of the respondents, and poor MHI-5 in 47% of respondents. Low education (Odds Ratios 1.32; 95% confidence intervals=1.16-1.51), unemployment (1.36; 1.18-1.56), single status (1.34; 1.23-1.45), and Wealth Index middle class (1.20; 1.08-1.32) or poor (1.33; 1.21-1.47) were significantly related with poor MHI-5. Unemployed persons in urban settlements had higher odds for poormMHI-5 than unemployed in rural areas (0.73; 0.59-0.89). Single (1.50; 1.26-1.78), unemployed (1.39; 1.07-1.80) and inactive respondents (1.42; 1.10-1.83) had a higher odds of chronic anxiety or depression than married individuals, or those with partner, and employed persons. Those with perceived good health status had lower odds for poor MHI-5, chronic anxiety or depression than those whose general health was average and poor. CONCLUSION Almost half of the population assessed their mental health as poor and 5% had diagnosed chronic anxiety or depression. Multi-sectoral socioeconomic and female-sensitive policies should be wisely tailored to reduce mental health inequalities contributed by differences in age, education, employment, marriage and the wealth status of the adult population.

A call for action to establish a research agenda for building a future health workforce in Europe

The importance of a sustainable health workforce is increasingly recognised. However, the building of a future health workforce that is responsive to diverse population needs and demographic and economic change remains insufficiently understood. There is a compelling argument to be made for a comprehensive research agenda to address the questions. With a focus on Europe and taking a health systems approach, we introduce an agenda linked to the ‘Health Workforce Research’ section of the European Public Health Association. Six major objectives for health workforce policy were identified: (1) to develop frameworks that align health systems/governance and health workforce policy/planning, (2) to explore the effects of changing skill mixes and competencies across sectors and occupational groups, (3) to map how education and health workforce governance can be better integrated, (4) to analyse the impact of health workforce mobility on health systems, (5) to optimise the use of international/EU, national and regional health workforce data and monitoring and (6) to build capacity for policy implementation. This article highlights critical knowledge gaps that currently hamper the opportunities of effectively responding to these challenges and advising policy-makers in different health systems. Closing these knowledge gaps is therefore an important step towards future health workforce governance and policy implementation. There is an urgent need for building health workforce research as an independent, interdisciplinary and multi-professional field. This requires dedicated research funding, new academic education programmes, comparative methodology and knowledge transfer and leadership that can help countries to build a people-centred health workforce.

Association between non-communicable disease multimorbidity and health care utilization in a middle-income country: population-based study

OBJECTIVE The objective was to analyze possible inequalities by gender in the utilization of health services (general practitioner [GP] and hospital), among people with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in the Republic of Serbia, with special reference to multimorbidity. In addition, we examined the prevalence patterns of NCDs by sociodemographic characteristics of the population. STUDY DESIGN This study is a population-based, cross-sectional survey. METHODS A secondary analysis from the 2013 Serbian National Health Survey included 13,765 adults aged ≥20 years. Multivariable logistic and linear regression analyses were performed to assess the association between NCDs and health care utilization. RESULTS Multimorbidity was present in 30.2% of the total sample. An increased number of NCDs was associated with a higher utilization of both primary (odds ratio [OR] for having any GP visit is 3.17 in males and 3.14 in females; unstandardized coefficient [B] for number of GP visits is 0.33 for both gender) and secondary health care services (OR for having any hospitalization is 2.45 in males and 1.97 in females; B for number of overnight stays in hospital is 1.62 in males and 0.97 in females) in Serbia. CONCLUSIONS Our study provided strong evidence that an increased number of NCDs was significantly associated with a higher utilization of health care services in Serbia. There is a need for wise, decisive, and integrated care interventions for effective management of NCDs and their risk factors. Further research is necessary with special emphasis on the role of the health system in satisfying needs of such patients.

The association between social characteristics, alcoholic beverage preferences, and binge drinking in a Serbian adult population

Aim: To determine the association of sociodemographic characteristics and type of alcoholic beverage consumed during binge drinking in Serbia. Method: We conducted a secondary analysis of data from the 2014 national survey on Serbian lifestyles focusing on substance abuse and gambling. The sample consisted of 5385 individuals. The respondents were divided into non-binge drinkers and binge drinkers, according to the quantity of alcohol consumed during one occasion. Binge drinkers reported consuming more than 60 g of pure alcohol (7.5 units of alcohol) during one occasion at least once during the previous year. Results: The prevalence of binge drinking in the past year among 2676 female and 2709 male participants aged 18–64 years was 28.4%. The multivariate logistic regression model showed that binge drinkers were more likely to be male (95% CI 3.58–4.94), single (95% CI 1.01–1.53), to be former (95% CI 1.06–1.62) or current smokers (95% CI 1.57–2.19), and to consume more than one type of alcoholic beverage (95% CI 2.04–3.44). There was a negative association of binge drinking with age (95% CI 0.98–0.99), living outside Northern Serbia-Vojvodina region, and drinking only spirits (95% CI 0.39–0.93). Conclusion: Focusing on the positive association of sociodemographic factors and binge drinking could help policy makers create public health interventions against alcohol misuse. These interventions should be directed to males, smokers, and those who consume more than one type of alcoholic beverage.

Sustaining success: aligning the public health workforce in South-Eastern Europe with strategic public health priorities

ObjectivesTo map out the Public Health Workforce (PHW) involved in successful public health interventions.MethodsWe did a pilot assessment of human resources involved in successful interventions addressing public health challenges in the countries of South-Eastern Europe (SEE). High-level representatives of eight countries reported about success stories through the coaching by experts. During synthesizing qualitative data, experts applied triangulation by contacting additional sources of evidence and used the framework method in data analysis.ResultsSEE countries tailored public health priorities towards social determinants, health equalities, and prevention of non-communicable diseases. A variety of organizations participated in achieving public health success. The same applies to the wide array of professions involved in the delivery of Essential Public Health Operations (EPHOs). Key enablers of the successful work of PHW were staff capacities, competences, interdisciplinary networking, productivity, and funding.ConclusionsDespite diversity across countries, successful public health interventions have similar ingredients. Although PHW is aligned with the specific public health success, a productive interface between health and other sectors is crucial for rolling-out successful interventions.

Encouraging employees to report verbal violence in primary health care in Serbia: A cross-sectional study

Abstract Introduction Workplace violence is a serious and multidimensional problem that adversely affects professional and personal lives of employees. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence and characteristics of verbal violence as a part of psychological violence among employees in primary health care in Belgrade, and to identify contributing factors of verbal violence in the workplace. Methods In this cross-sectional study, the final analysis included 1526 employees, using multi-stage sampling. Data were collected using the questionnaire Workplace Violence in the Health Sector Country Case Studies Research, developed by ILO/ICN/WHO/PSI. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression analysis were used to analyse the data. The general response rate was 86.8% (1526/1757). Results It was found that 47.8% of the participants were subjected to verbal violence. The main source of verbal violence was patient/client, 55.6% of employees did not report the incident. Among those who did not report the incident, 74.9% believed that reporting violence was useless. The interaction with patients (OR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.02-2.06) and work between 6pm and 7am (OR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.01-1.60) were significant contributing factors of verbal violence. Conclusion The results are indicative of a high prevalence of verbal violence against employees in primary health centres, which could have undesirable consequences. Conducting a better organizational measure and encouraging employees to report workplace violence could reduce the prevalence of verbal violence.

Socio-Economic Inequalities, Out-of-Pocket Payment and Consumers' Satisfaction with Primary Health Care: Data from the National Adult Consumers' Satisfaction Survey in Serbia 2009–2015

Citation: Vojvodic K, Terzic-Supic Z, Santric-Milicevic M and Wolf GW (2017) Socio-Economic Inequalities, Out-of-Pocket Payment and Consumers’ Satisfaction with Primary Health Care: Data from the National Adult Consumers’ Satisfaction Survey in Serbia 2009–2015. Front. Pharmacol. 8:147. doi: 10.3389/fphar.2017.00147 Socio-Economic Inequalities, Out-of-Pocket Payment and Consumers’ Satisfaction with Primary Health Care: Data from the National Adult Consumers’ Satisfaction Survey in Serbia 2009–2015

An approach to determine the prevalence of poor mental health among urban and rural population in Serbia using propensity score matching

OBJECTIVE Studies about mental health among urban and rural residents are scarce. A limited number of studies report somewhat better mental health in rural settings, despite higher rates of suicides. The main objective of this study was to describe social conditions of the population of Serbia in rural and urban settlements and to assess the differences in the prevalence of mental health disorders. METHODS Propensity score matching of urban and rural persons (2 × 3,569 persons) has eliminated confounding effects from social variables (age, gender, wealth index, education level, employment, family status) and self-rated health. Thus, any statistical differences concerning mental health variables (five-item Mental Health Inventory and clinically diagnosed chronic anxiety or depression) between the two populations were not a result of differences in the matching variables. RESULTS After matching all variables, the estimated prevalence rate of poor mental health was significantly higher among residents of urban (52.2%) than rural (49.1%) settlements (p=0.012). CONCLUSIONS Almost half of the Serbian population suffers from poor mental health, therefore, there is a need to increase efforts on mental health promotion, prevention and treatment. Our study findings also support the importance of promoting benefits of rural settings for people with mental distress.