Mina Youssef

An individual-based approach to SIR epidemics in contact networks.

Many approaches have recently been proposed to model the spread of epidemics on networks. For instance, the Susceptible/Infected/Recovered (SIR) compartmental model has successfully been applied to different types of diseases that spread out among humans and animals. When this model is applied on a contact network, the centrality characteristics of the network plays an important role in the spreading process. However, current approaches only consider an aggregate representation of the network structure, which can result in inaccurate analysis. In this paper, we propose a new individual-based SIR approach, which considers the whole description of the network structure. The individual-based approach is built on a continuous time Markov chain, and it is capable of evaluating the state probability for every individual in the network. Through mathematical analysis, we rigorously confirm the existence of an epidemic threshold below which an epidemic does not propagate in the network. We also show that the epidemic threshold is inversely proportional to the maximum eigenvalue of the network. Additionally, we study the role of the whole spectrum of the network, and determine the relationship between the maximum number of infected individuals and the set of eigenvalues and eigenvectors. To validate our approach, we analytically study the deviation with respect to the continuous time Markov chain model, and we show that the new approach is accurate for a large range of infection strength. Furthermore, we compare the new approach with the well-known heterogeneous mean field approach in the literature. Ultimately, we support our theoretical results through extensive numerical evaluations and Monte Carlo simulations.

Characterising the robustness of complex networks

With increasingly ambitious initiatives such as GENI and FIND that seek to design the future Internet, it becomes imperative to define the characteristics of robust topologies, and build future networks optimized for robustness. This paper investigates the characteristics of network topologies that maintain a high level of throughput in spite of multiple attacks. To this end, we select network topologies belonging to the main network models and some real world networks. We consider three types of attacks: removal of random nodes, high degree nodes, and high betweenness nodes. We use elasticity as our robustness measure and, through our analysis, illustrate that different topologies can have different degrees of robustness. In particular, elasticity can fall as low as 0.8% of the upper bound based on the attack employed. This result substantiates the need for optimized network topology design. Furthermore, we implement a tradeoff function that combines elasticity under the three attack strategies and considers the cost of the network. Our extensive simulations show that, for a given network density, regular and semi-regular topologies can have higher degrees of robustness than heterogeneous topologies, and that link redundancy is a sufficient but not necessary condition for robustness.

Viral conductance : Quantifying the robustness of networks with respect to spread of epidemics

In this paper, we propose a novel measure, viral conductance (VC), to assess the robustness of complex networks with respect to the spread of SIS epidemics. In contrast to classical measures that assess the robustness of networks based on the epidemic threshold above which an epidemic takes place, the new measure incorporates the fraction of infected nodes at steady state for all possible effective infection strengths. Through examples, we show that VC provides more insight about the robustness of networks than does the epidemic threshold. We also address the paradoxical robustness of Barabasi-Albert preferential attachment networks. Even though this class of networks is characterized by a vanishing epidemic threshold, the epidemic requires high effective infection strength to cause a major outbreak. On the contrary, in homogeneous networks the effective infection strength does not need to be very much beyond the epidemic threshold to cause a major outbreak. To overcome computational complexities, we propose a heuristic to compute the VC for large networks with high accuracy. Simulations show that the heuristic gives an accurate approximation of the exact value of the VC. Moreover, we derive upper and lower bounds of the new measure. We also apply the new measure to assess the robustness of different types of network structures, i.e. Watts-Strogatz small world, Barabasi-Albert, correlated preferential attachment, Internet AS-level, and social networks. The extensive simulations show that in Watts-Strogatz small world networks, the increase in probability of rewiring decreases the robustness of networks. Additionally, VC confirms that the irregularity in node degrees decreases the robustness of the network. Furthermore, the new measure reveals insights about design and mitigation strategies of infrastructure and social networks.

Efficient mitigation strategies for epidemics in rural regions.

Containing an epidemic at its origin is the most desirable mitigation. Epidemics have often originated in rural areas, with rural communities among the first affected. Disease dynamics in rural regions have received limited attention, and results of general studies cannot be directly applied since population densities and human mobility factors are very different in rural regions from those in cities. We create a network model of a rural community in Kansas, USA, by collecting data on the contact patterns and computing rates of contact among a sampled population. We model the impact of different mitigation strategies detecting closely connected groups of people and frequently visited locations. Within those groups and locations, we compare the effectiveness of random and targeted vaccinations using a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered compartmental model on the contact network. Our simulations show that the targeted vaccinations of only 10% of the sampled population reduced the size of the epidemic by 34.5%. Additionally, if 10% of the population visiting one of the most popular locations is randomly vaccinated, the epidemic size is reduced by 19%. Our results suggest a new implementation of a highly effective strategy for targeted vaccinations through the use of popular locations in rural communities.

A network-based approach for resistance transmission in bacterial populations

Horizontal transfer of mobile genetic elements (conjugation) is an important mechanism whereby resistance is spread through bacterial populations. The aim of our work is to develop a mathematical model that quantitatively describes this process, and to use this model to optimize antimicrobial dosage regimens to minimize resistance development. The bacterial population is conceptualized as a compartmental mathematical model to describe changes in susceptible, resistant, and transconjugant bacteria over time. This model is combined with a compartmental pharmacokinetic model to explore the effect of different plasma drug concentration profiles. An agent-based simulation tool is used to account for resistance transfer occurring when two bacteria are adjacent or in close proximity. In addition, a non-linear programming optimal control problem is introduced to minimize bacterial populations as well as the drug dose. Simulation and optimization results suggest that the rapid death of susceptible individuals in the population is pivotal in minimizing the number of transconjugants in a population. This supports the use of potent antimicrobials that rapidly kill susceptible individuals and development of dosage regimens that maintain effective antimicrobial drug concentrations for as long as needed to kill off the susceptible population. Suggestions are made for experiments to test the hypotheses generated by these simulations.

A New Metric for Robustness with Respect to Virus Spread

The robustness of a network is depending on the type of attack we are considering. In this paper we focus on the spread of viruses on networks. It is common practice to use the epidemic threshold as a measure for robustness. Because the epidemic threshold is inversely proportional to the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix, it seems easy to compare the robustness of two networks. We will show in this paper that the comparison of the robustness with respect to virus spread for two networks actually depends on the value of the effective spreading rate *** . For this reason we propose a new metric, the viral conductance, which takes into account the complete range of values *** can obtain. In this paper we determine the viral conductance of regular graphs, complete bi-partite graphs and a number of realistic networks.

Mitigation of epidemics in contact networks through optimal contact adaptation.

This paper presents an optimal control problem formulation to minimize the total number of infection cases during the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered SIR epidemics in contact networks. In the new approach, contact weighted are reduced among nodes and a global minimum contact level is preserved in the network. In addition, the infection cost and the cost associated with the contact reduction are linearly combined in a single objective function. Hence, the optimal control formulation addresses the tradeoff between minimization of total infection cases and minimization of contact weights reduction. Using Pontryagin theorem, the obtained solution is a unique candidate representing the dynamical weighted contact network. To find the near-optimal solution in a decentralized way, we propose two heuristics based on Bang-Bang control function and on a piecewise nonlinear control function, respectively. We perform extensive simulations to evaluate the two heuristics on different networks. Our results show that the piecewise nonlinear control function outperforms the well-known Bang-Bang control function in minimizing both the total number of infection cases and the reduction of contact weights. Finally, our results show awareness of the infection level at which the mitigation strategies are effectively applied to the contact weights.

On graph-based characteristics of optimal overlay topologies

In this paper, we address the challenge of overlay topology design by considering which overlay topology best minimizes cost function, taking into account overlay link creation cost and routing cost. First, we formulate the problem as Integer Linear Programming (ILP) given a traffic matrix and assuming cooperative behavior of nodes. Then, we propose some heuristics to find near-optimal overlay topologies with a reduced complexity. The solutions to the ILP problem on real network topologies have been analyzed, showing that the traffic demands between the nodes affect the decision to create new overlay links. Next, the obtained optimal and near-optimal overlay topologies are thoroughly analyzed and the heuristics are compared through extensive numerical evaluations. Finally guidelines for the selection of the best heuristic as a function of the cost parameters are also provided.

Dynamic Hybrid Topology Design for Multicast in Constrained WDM Networks

High bandwidth one-to-many applications emerging in IP over WDM optical networks demand multicast support at WDM layer so that data signals would be efficiently duplicated inside network without O/E/O conversion. Multicast trees in an optical layer can be built with light-trees which use light-splitting technique. Most of recent studies have been focused to efficiently build and configure light-trees without existing unicast or multicast traffic into consideration. In this paper we consider the dynamic and optimal design problem of multicast configuration for realistic and constrained WDM networks. In such a network, both unicast and multicast are supported, and WDM switches have limited number of wavelengths and light splitting capability. On the other hand, the amount of bandwidth per wavelength is abundant. Using subwavelength sharing among traffic demands of unicast and multicast, we build a hybrid virtual topology which exploits both existing light-trees and light- paths. By optimizing WDM resources in addition to resource sharing with existing unicast and multicast demands, we truly maximize the WDM layer capability and efficiently support more multicast traffic demands. We validate the efficiency of our approach with extensive simulations.