Mingliang Fu

Vehicular volatile organic compounds losses due to refueling and diurnal process in China: 2010-2050.

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are crucial to control air pollution in major Chinese cities since VOCs are the dominant factor influencing ambient ozone level, and also an important precursor of secondary organic aerosols. Vehicular evaporative emissions have become a major and growing source of VOC emissions in China. This study consists of lab tests, technology evaluation, emissions modeling, policy projections and cost-benefit analysis to draw a roadmap for China for controlling vehicular evaporative emissions. The analysis suggests that evaporative VOC emissions from Chinas light-duty gasoline vehicles were approximately 185,000 ton in 2010 and would peak at 1,200,000 ton in 2040 without control. The current control strategy implemented in China, as shown in business as usual (BAU) scenario, will barely reduce the long-term growth in emissions. Even if Stage II gasoline station vapor control policies were extended national wide (BAU+extended Stage II), there would still be over 400,000 ton fuel loss in 2050. In contrast, the implementation of on-board refueling vapor recovery (ORVR) on new cars could reduce 97.5% of evaporative VOCs by 2050 (BAU+ORVR/BAU+delayed ORVR). According to the results, a combined Stage II and ORVR program is a comprehensive solution that provides both short-term and long-term benefits. The net cost to achieve the optimal total evaporative VOC control is approximately 62 billion CNY in 2025 and 149 billion CNY in 2050.

The impact of marine shipping and its DECA control on air quality in the Pearl River Delta, China

Marine trade has significantly expanded over the past decades aiding to the economic development of the maritime countries, yet, this has been associated with a considerable increase in pollution emission from shipping operation. This study aims at considering both sides of the spectrum at the same time, which is including both public and shipping business. Of the key significance would be to optimize the operation of the shipping industry, such that its impact on air pollution is minimized, without, however, significant escalation of its cost, and therefore to protect the whole seaborne trade. To do this, we considered the impacts of three control strategies, including the current emission control area (ECA) design, as well two additional ones. Thus the first scenario (DECA1) was based on the Chinas domestic emission control area (DECA), which was set up in 2016. The DECA1 scale was only 12 nautical miles, which was much smaller than the emission control areas in US or Europe. We defined the second scenario (DECA2), by stretching the zone to 200 nautical miles towards the ocean, modeling it on the ECA in North America. The third scenario (DECA3), on the other hand, expanded the 12 nautical miles control zone along the whole coastline. To investigate the impact of shipping emissions on air quality, a shipping emission calculation model and an air quality simulation model were used, and Pearl River Delta (PRD), China was chosen to serve as a case study. The study demonstrated that in 2013 marine shipping emissions contributed on average 0.33 and 0.60μg·m-3, respectively to the land SO2 and PM2.5 concentrations in the PRD, and that the concentrations were high along the coastline. The DECA1 policy could effectively reduce SO2 and PM2.5 concentrations in the port regions, and the average reduction in the land area were 9.54% and 2.7%, respectively. Compared with DECA1, DECA2 would not measurably improve the air quality, while DECA3 would effectively decrease the pollution in the entire coast area. Thus, instead of expanding emission control area far to the ocean, it is more effective to control emissions along the coastline to secure the best air quality and lower the health impacts. By doing this, 19 million dollars of fuel cost could be saved per year. The saved cost could help the ship owners to endure, considering the current low profits of the seaborne trade, and thus to protect the overall growth of the economy.

Shipping emission forecasts and cost-benefit analysis of China ports and key regions’ control

China established Domestic Emission Control Area (DECA) for sulphur since 2015 to constrain the increasing shipping emissions. However, future DECA policy-makings are not supported due to a lack of quantitive evaluations. To investigate the effects of current and possible Chinese DECAs policies, a model is presented for the forecast of shipping emissions and evaluation of potential costs and benefits of an DECA policy package set in 2020. It includes a port-level and regional-level projection accounting for shipping trade volume growth, share of ship types, and fuel consumption. The results show that without control measures, both SO2 and particulate matter (PM) emissions are expected to increase by 15.3-61.2% in Jing-Jin-Ji, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta from 2013 to 2020. However, most emissions can be reduced annually by the establishment of a DECA that depends on the size of the control area and the fuel sulphur content limit. Costs range from 0.667 to 1.561 billion dollars (control regional shipping emissions) based on current fuel price. A social cost method shows the regional control scenarios benefit-cost ratios vary from 4.3 to 5.1 with large uncertainty. Chemical transportation model combined with health model method is used to get the monetary health benefits and then compared with the results from social cost method. This study suggests that Chinese DECAs will reduce the projected emissions at a favorable benefit-cost ratio, and furthermore proposes policy combinations that provide high cost-effective benefits as a reference for future policy-making.

Emission characteristics of offshore fishing ships in the Yellow Bo Sea, China

Maritime transport has been playing a decisive role in global trade. Its contribution to the air pollution of the sea and coastal areas has been widely recognized. The air pollutant emission inventories of several harbors in China have already been established. However, the emission factors of local ships have not been addressed comprehensively, and thus are lacking from the emission inventories. In this study, on-board emission tests of eight diesel-powered offshore fishing ships were conducted near the coastal region of the northern Yellow Bo Sea fishing ground of Dalian, China. Results show that large amounts of fine particles (<0.5μm, 90%) were found in maneuvering mode, which were about five times higher than those during cruise mode. Emission rates as well as emission factors based on both distance and fuel were determined during the cruise and maneuvering modes (including departure and arrival). Average emission rates and distance-based emission factors of CO, HC and PM were much higher during the maneuvering mode as compared with the cruise mode. However, the average emission rate of Nitrous Oxide (NOx) was higher during the cruise mode as compared with the maneuvering modes. On the contrary, the average distance-based emission factors of NOx were lower during the cruise mode relative to the maneuvering mode due to the low sailing speed of the latter.