Mingyang Sun

Evaluating composite approaches to modelling high-dimensional stochastic variables in power systems

The large-scale integration of intermittent energy sources, the introduction of shiftable load elements and the growing interconnection that characterizes electricity systems worldwide have led to a significant increase of operational uncertainty. The construction of suitable statistical models is a fundamental step towards building Monte Carlo analysis frameworks to be used for exploring the uncertainty state-space and supporting real-time decision-making. The main contribution of the present paper is the development of novel composite modelling approaches that employ dimensionality reduction, clustering and parametric modelling techniques with a particular focus on the use of pair copula construction schemes. Large power system datasets are modelled using different combinations of the aforementioned techniques, and detailed comparisons are drawn on the basis of Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests, multivariate two-sample energy tests and visual data comparisons. The proposed methods are shown to be superior to alternative high-dimensional modelling approaches.

C-Vine Copula Mixture Model for Clustering of Residential Electrical Load Pattern Data

The ongoing deployment of residential smart meters in numerous jurisdictions has led to an influx of electricity consumption data. This information presents a valuable opportunity to suppliers for better understanding their customer base and designing more effective tariff structures. In the past, various clustering methods have been proposed for meaningful customer partitioning. This paper presents a novel finite mixture modeling framework based on C-vine copulas (CVMM) for carrying out consumer categorization. The superiority of the proposed framework lies in the great flexibility of pair copulas toward identifying multidimensional dependency structures present in load profiling data. CVMM is compared to other classical methods by using real demand measurements recorded across 2613 households in a London smart-metering trial. The superior performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated by analyzing four validity indicators. In addition, a decision tree classification module for partitioning new consumers is developed and the improved predictive performance of CVMM compared to existing methods is highlighted. Further case studies are carried out based on different loading conditions and different sets of large numbers of households to demonstrate the advantages and to test the scalability of the proposed method.

Recurrent Deep Multiagent Q-Learning for Autonomous Brokers in Smart Grid

The broker mechanism is widely applied to serve for interested parties to derive long-term policies in order to reduce costs or gain profits in smart grid. However, a broker is faced with a number of challenging problems such as balancing demand and supply from customers and competing with other coexisting brokers to maximize its profit. In this paper, we develop an effective pricing strategy for brokers in local electricity retail market based on recurrent deep multiagent reinforcement learning and sequential clustering. We use real household electricity consumption data to simulate the retail market for evaluating our strategy. The experiments demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed pricing strategy and highlight the effectiveness of our reward shaping mechanism.

Analysis of diversified residential demand in London using smart meter and demographic data

In the interest of economic efficiency, design of distribution networks should be taillored to the demonstrated needs of its consumers. However, in the absence of detailed knowledge related to the characteristics of electricity consumption, planning has traditionally been carried out on the basis of empirical metrics; conservative estimates of individual peak consumption levels and of demand diversification across multiple consumers. Although such practices have served the industry well, the advent of smart metering opens up the possibility for gaining valuable insights on demand patterns, resulting in enhanced planning capabilities. This paper is motivated by the collection of demand measurements across 2,639 households in London, as part of Low Carbon London projects smart-metering trial. Demand diversity and other metrics of interest are quantified for the entire dataset as well as across different customer classes, investigating the degree to which occupancy level and wealth can be used to infer peak demand behavior.