Minqi Li

Peak oil, the rise of China and India, and the global energy crisis

Abstract Should current trends continue, China and India are widely expected to play leading roles in the world economy in the twenty-first century. However, the economic rise of China and India coincides with the decline of fossil fuels. There is growing consensus that the worlds total oil production is likely to reach its peak in the near future and, to alleviate global warming, it is necessary to dramatically reduce the use of all forms of fossil fuels. This article discusses the interactions between the economic rise of China and India and the global energy crisis. Several scenarios that range from the failure of the Chinese and the Indian national development projects to global environmental catastrophes are discussed.

Climate Change, Limits to Growth, and the Imperative for Socialism

The 2007 assessment report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirms that it is virtually certain that human activities (mainly through the use of fossil fuels and land development) have been responsible for the global warming that has taken place since the industrial revolution. Under current economic and social trends, the world is on a path to unprecedented ecological catastrophes. 1 As the IPCC report was being released, new evidence emerged suggesting that climate change is taking place at a much faster pace and the potential consequences are likely to be far more dreadful than is suggested by the IPCC reportThis article can also be found at the Monthly Review website, where most recent articles are published in full.Click here to purchase a PDF version of this article at the Monthly Review website.

The Rise of the Working Class and the Future of the Chinese Revolution

In July 2009, workers at the state-owned Tonghua Steel Company in Jilin, China organized a massive anti-privatization protest. Then, in the summer of 2010, a wave of strikes swept through China’s coastal provinces. These events may prove to be a historic turning point. After decades of defeat, retreat, and silence, the Chinese working class is now re-emerging as a new social and political force.… How will the rise of the Chinese working class shape the future of China and the world? Will the Chinese capitalist class manage to accommodate the working-class challenge while maintaining the capitalist system? Or will the rise of the Chinese working class lead to a new Chinese socialist revolution that could, in turn, pave the way for a global socialist revolution? The answers to these questions will, to a large extent, determine the course of world history in the twenty-first century. This article can also be found at the Monthly Review website , where most recent articles are published in full. Click here to purchase a PDF version of this article at the Monthly Review website.

After Neoliberalism. Empire, Social Democracy, or Socialism

Since the early 1980s, the leading capitalist states in North America and Western Europe have pursued neoliberal policies and institutional changes. The peripheral and semiperipheral states in Latin America, Africa, Asia, and Eastern Europe, under the pressure of the leading capitalist states (primarily the United States) and international monetary institutions (IMF and the World Bank), have adopted structural adjustments, shock therapies, or economic reforms, to restructure their economies in accordance with the requirements of neoliberal economics.This article can also be found at the Monthly Review website, where most recent articles are published in full.Click here to purchase a PDF version of this article at the Monthly Review website.

China’s Grain Production: A Decade of Consecutive Growth or Stagnation?

China’s official statistics showed that the country’s grain production declined from 512 to 431 million tons between 1998 and 2003. However, according to the Chinese government, since 2004 it has achieved “ten years of consecutive growth” in grain production. According to the official statistics, China’s grain production reached 602 million tons in 2013, nearly 40 percent above the 2003 level.… While the official statistics claim grain production has grown rapidly, China’s surging imports of cereals and soybean suggest that its grain production has struggled to catch up with demand.… This article argues that China’s actual grain production levels may be substantially lower than the officially reported levels; in fact, grain production has stagnated since the late 1990s. This article can also be found at the Monthly Review website , where most recent articles are published in full. Click here to purchase a PDF version of this article at the Monthly Review website.

Peak Energy, Climate Change, and Limits to China's Economic Growth

This article evaluates the prospects of energy supply and its impact on economic growth in China from now to 2100. After considering the prospects for coal, oil, and gas production, as well as the development potentials of nuclear energy, renewable energies, and energy efficiency, it concludes that China is likely to face irreversible declines of energy consumption and economic output after the mid-twenty-first century. moreover, the projected fossil fuel consumption implies levels of carbon dioxide emissions substantially more than what would be consistent with Chinas obligations to global climate stabilization.

China: six years after Tiananmen

Six years ago, immediately after the democratic movement was repressed in China, almost all Chinese liberal intellectuals and Western observers predicted that, without political reform, economic reform would fail in China. Despite their warnings, tens of billions of dollars have continued to pour into China. Now it is obvious that the capitalists themselves had a better estimate of Chinese reality than their theoreticians. In fact, judging from subsequent events, it could be said that the armys success in breaking up the Tiananmen demonstration and attacking its working-class supporters helped pave the way for further capitalist development. This article can also be found at the Monthly Review website , where most recent articles are published in full. Click here to purchase a PDF version of this article at the Monthly Review website.

Are Chinese Workers Paid the Correct Wages? Measuring Wage Underpayment in the Chinese Industrial Sector, 2005-2010

This paper examines the labor compensations of the Chinese industrial sector for the period 2005-2010. We find that both the state owned enterprises and the non-domestic enterprises pay more than the living wage. But the domestic private enterprises pay substantially less than the living wage. We also find that all types of Chinese industrial enterprises pay the workers with wages that are substantially less than their marginal product of labor.

An Age of Transition: The United States, China, Peak Oil, and the Demise of Neoliberalism

Until recently, the global capitalist economy has enjoyed a period of comparative tranquility and grown at a relatively rapid pace since the global economic crisis of 2001-02. During this period of global economic expansion there have been several important economic and political developments. First, the United States—the declining hegemonic power but still the leading driving force of the global capitalist economy—has been characterized by growing internal and external financial imbalances. The U.S. economy has experienced a period of debt-financed, consumption-led expansion with stagnant wages and employment, and has been running large and rising current account deficits (the current account deficit is a broad measure of the trade deficit). Second, China has become a major player in the global capitalist economy and has been playing an increasingly important role in sustaining global economic growth. Third, global capitalist accumulation is imposing growing pressure on the worlds natural resources and environment. There is increasingly convincing evidence that the global oil production will reach its peak and start to decline in a few years. Fourth, the U.S. imperialist adventure in the Middle East has suffered devastating setbacks and there has been growing resistance to neoliberalism and U.S. imperialism throughout the world.This article can also be found at the Monthly Review website, where most recent articles are published in full.Click here to purchase a PDF version of this article at the Monthly Review website.

The 21st Century Crisis Climate Catastrophe or Socialism

Under the current trend, the world is on track towards an extreme greenhouse state that threatens to destroy human civilization and nearly all forms of life on Earth. Without an end to economic growth, it is virtually impossible for meaningful climate stabilization to be achieved. However, both capitalist enterprises and states are constantly driven to expand production and consumption. The climate change crisis is but one of several long-term historical trends that are now leading to the structural crisis of capitalism. The resolution of the crisis and the survival of humanity require the building of a fundamentally different social system. JEL classification: B51, P16, P20, Q54