Miranda M Fidler

Cancer incidence and mortality among young adults aged 20–39 years worldwide in 2012: a population-based study

BACKGROUND To date, the burden of cancer among young adults has rarely been studied in depth. Our aim was to describe the scale and profile of cancer incidence and mortality worldwide among 20-39 year-olds, highlighting major patterns by age, sex, development level, and geographical region. METHODS We did a population-based study to quantify the burden of young adult cancers worldwide. We defined young adult cancers as those occurring between the ages of 20 and 39 years because these individuals will have passed puberty and adolescence, but not yet experienced the effects of hormonal decline, immune response deterioration, or organ dysfunction associated with chronic health conditions. Global, regional, and country-specific (n=184) data estimates of the number of new cancer cases and cancer-associated deaths that occurred in 2012 among young adults were extracted in four 5-year bands from the International Agency for Research on Cancers GLOBOCAN 2012 for all cancers combined and for 27 major types as defined by the International Classification of Disease, tenth revision. We report the number of new cancer cases and cancer-associated deaths overall and by sex alongside corresponding age-standardised rates (ASR) per 100 000 people per year. We also present results using four levels of the Human Development Index (HDI; low [least developed], medium, high, and very high [most developed]), which is a composite indicator for socioeconomic development comprising life expectancy, education, and gross national income. FINDINGS 975 396 new cancer cases and 358 392 cancer-associated deaths occurred among young adults worldwide in 2012, which equated to an ASR of 43·3 new cancer cases per 100 000 people per year and 15·9 cancer-associated deaths per 100 000 people per year. The burden was disproportionally greater among women and the most common cancer types overall in terms of new cases were female breast cancer, cervical cancer, thyroid cancer, leukaemia, and colorectal cancer; in terms of deaths, female breast cancer, liver cancer, leukaemia, and cervical cancer were the main contributors. When assessed by development level and geographical region, the cancer profile varied substantially; generally, the burden of infection-associated cancers was greater in regions under transition. Cancer incidence was elevated in very high-HDI regions compared with low-HDI regions (ASR 64·5 vs 46·2 cancer cases per 100 000 people per year); however, the mortality burden was 3 times higher in low-HDI regions (ASR 25·4 vs 9·2 cancer-associated deaths per 100 000 people per year), reflecting differences in cancer profiles and inferior outcomes. INTERPRETATION The global cancer burden among 20-39 year-olds differs from that seen in younger or older ages and varies substantially by age, sex, development level, and geographical region. Although the cancer burden is lower in this age group than that observed in older ages, the societal and economic effects remain great given the major effects of premature morbidity and mortality. Targeted surveillance, prevention, and treatment are needed to reduce the cancer burden in this underserved age group. FUNDING International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and European Commissions FP-7 Marie Curie Actions-People-COFUND.

A global view on cancer incidence and national levels of the human development index

Socioeconomic factors are associated with cancer incidence through complex and variable pathways. We assessed cancer incidence for all cancers combined and 27 major types according to national human development levels. Using GLOBOCAN data for 184 countries, age‐standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were assessed by four levels (low, medium, high, very high) of the Human Development Index (HDI), a composite index of life expectancy, education, and gross national income. A strong positive relationship between overall cancer incidence and HDI level was observed. When comparing the ASR in very high HDI regions with that in low HDI regions, we observed a positive association ranging from 2 to 14 and 2 to 11 times higher in males and females, respectively, depending on the cancer type. Positive dose–response relationships between the ASR and HDI level were observed in both sexes for the following cancer types: lung, pancreas, leukemia, gallbladder, colorectum, brain/nervous system, kidney, multiple myeloma, and thyroid. Positive associations were also observed for testicular, bladder, lip/oral cavity, and other pharyngeal cancers, Hodgkin lymphoma, and melanoma of the skin in males, and corpus uteri, breast, and ovarian cancers and non‐Hodgkin lymphoma in females. A negative dose–response relationship was observed for cervical and other pharyngeal cancers and Kaposi sarcoma in females. Although the relationship between incidence and the HDI remained when assessed at the country‐specific level, variations in risk within HDI levels were also observed. We highlight positive and negative associations between incidence and human development for most cancers, which will aid the planning of cancer control priorities among countries undergoing human development transitions.

Long term cause specific mortality among 34 489 five year survivors of childhood cancer in Great Britain: population based cohort study

Objective To determine whether modern treatments for cancer are associated with a net increased or decreased risk of death from neoplastic and non-neoplastic causes among survivors of childhood cancer. Design Population based cohort study. Setting British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study. Participants Nationwide population based cohort of 34 489 five year survivors of childhood cancer with a diagnosis from 1940 to 2006 and followed up until 28 February 2014. Main outcome measures Cause specific standardised mortality ratios and absolute excess risks are reported. Multivariable Poisson regression models were utilised to evaluate the simultaneous effect of risk factors. Likelihood ratio tests were used to test for heterogeneity or trend. Results Overall, 4475 deaths were observed, which was 9.1 (95% confidence interval 8.9 to 9.4) times that expected in the general population, corresponding to 64.2 (95% confidence interval 62.1 to 66.3) excess deaths per 10 000 person years. The number of excess deaths from all causes declined among those treated more recently; those treated during 1990-2006 experienced 30% of the excess number of deaths experienced by those treated before 1970. The corresponding percentages for the decline in excess deaths from recurrence or progression and non-neoplastic causes were 30% and 60%, respectively. Among survivors aged 50-59 years, 41% and 22% of excess deaths were attributable to subsequent primary neoplasms and circulatory conditions, respectively, whereas the corresponding percentages among those aged 60 years or more were 31% and 37%. Conclusions The net effects of changes in cancer treatments, and surveillance and management for late effects, over the period 1940 to 2006 was to reduce the excess number of deaths from both recurrence or progression and non-neoplastic causes among those treated more recently. Among survivors aged 60 years or more, the excess number of deaths from circulatory causes exceeds the excess number of deaths from subsequent primary neoplasms. The important message for the evidence based surveillance aimed at preventing excess mortality and morbidity in survivors aged 60 years or more is that circulatory disease overtakes subsequent primary neoplasms as the leading cause of excess mortality.

Cardiac Mortality Among 200 000 Five-Year Survivors of Cancer Diagnosed at 15 to 39 Years of Age: The Teenage and Young Adult Cancer Survivor Study

Background: Survivors of teenage and young adult cancer are acknowledged as understudied. Little is known about their long-term adverse health risks, particularly of cardiac disease that is increased in other cancer populations where cardiotoxic treatments have been used. Methods: The Teenage and Young Adult Cancer Survivor Study cohort comprises 200 945 5-year survivors of cancer diagnosed at 15 to 39 years of age in England and Wales from 1971 to 2006, and followed to 2014. Standardized mortality ratios, absolute excess risks, and cumulative risks were calculated. Results: Two thousand sixteen survivors died of cardiac disease. For all cancers combined, the standardized mortality ratios for all cardiac diseases combined was greatest for individuals diagnosed at 15 to 19 years of age (4.2; 95% confidence interval, 3.4–5.2) decreasing to 1.2 (95% confidence interval, 1.1–1.3) for individuals aged 35 to 39 years (2P for trend <0.0001). Similar patterns were observed for both standardized mortality ratios and absolute excess risks for ischemic heart disease, valvular heart disease, and cardiomyopathy. Survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma, acute myeloid leukaemia, genitourinary cancers other than bladder cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, lung cancer, leukaemia other than acute myeloid, central nervous system tumour, cervical cancer, and breast cancer experienced 3.8, 2.7, 2.0, 1.7, 1.7, 1.6, 1.4, 1.3 and 1.2 times the number of cardiac deaths expected from the general population, respectively. Among survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma aged over 60 years, almost 30% of the total excess number of deaths observed were due to heart disease. Conclusions: This study of over 200 000 cancer survivors shows that age at cancer diagnosis was critical in determining subsequent cardiac mortality risk. For the first time, risk estimates of cardiac death after each cancer diagnosed between the ages of 15 and 39 years have been derived from a large population-based cohort with prolonged follow-up. The evidence here provides an initial basis for developing evidence-based follow-up guidelines.

Population-Based Long-Term Cardiac-Specific Mortality Among 34,489 Five-Year Survivors of Childhood Cancer in Great Britain.

Background: Increased risks of cardiac morbidity and mortality among childhood cancer survivors have been described previously. However, little is known about the very long-term risks of cardiac mortality and whether the risk has decreased among those more recently diagnosed. We investigated the risk of long-term cardiac mortality among survivors within the recently extended British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study. Methods: The British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study is a population-based cohort of 34 489 five-year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed from 1940 to 2006 and followed up until February 28, 2014, and is the largest cohort to date to assess late cardiac mortality. Standardized mortality ratios and absolute excess risks were used to quantify cardiac mortality excess risk. Multivariable Poisson regression models were used to evaluate the simultaneous effect of risk factors. Likelihood ratio tests were used to test for heterogeneity and trends. Results: Overall, 181 cardiac deaths were observed, which was 3.4 times that expected. Survivors were 2.5 times and 5.9 times more at risk of ischemic heart disease and cardiomyopathy/heart failure death, respectively, than expected. Among those >60 years of age, subsequent primary neoplasms, cardiac disease, and other circulatory conditions accounted for 31%, 22%, and 15% of all excess deaths, respectively, providing clear focus for preventive interventions. The risk of both overall cardiac and cardiomyopathy/heart failure mortality was greatest among those diagnosed from 1980 to 1989. Specifically, for cardiomyopathy/heart failure deaths, survivors diagnosed from 1980 to 1989 had 28.9 times the excess number of deaths observed for survivors diagnosed either before 1970 or from 1990 on. Conclusions: Excess cardiac mortality among 5-year survivors of childhood cancer remains increased beyond 50 years of age and has clear messages in terms of prevention strategies. However, the fact that the risk was greatest in those diagnosed from 1980 to 1989 suggests that initiatives to reduce cardiotoxicity among those treated more recently may be having a measurable impact.

Long-term adverse outcomes in survivors of childhood bone sarcoma: the British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study

Background:With improved survival, more bone sarcoma survivors are approaching middle age making it crucial to investigate the late effects of their cancer and its treatment. We investigated the long-term risks of adverse outcomes among 5-year bone sarcoma survivors within the British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study.Methods:Cause-specific mortality and risk of subsequent primary neoplasms (SPNs) were investigated for 664 bone sarcoma survivors. Use of health services, health and marital status, alcohol and smoking habits, and educational qualifications were investigated for survivors who completed a questionnaire.Results:Survivors were seven times more likely to experience all-cause mortality than expected, and there were substantial differences in risk depending on tumour type. Beyond 25 years follow-up the risk of dying from all-causes was comparable to the general population. This is in contrast to dying before 25 years where the risk was 12.7-fold that expected. Survivors were also four times more likely to develop a SPN than expected, where the excess was restricted to 5–24 years post diagnosis. Increased health-care usage and poor health status were also found. Nonetheless, for some psychosocial outcomes survivors were better off than expected.Conclusions:Up to 25 years after 5-year survival, bone sarcoma survivors are at substantial risk of death and SPNs, but this is greatly reduced thereafter. As 95% of all excess deaths before 25 years follow-up were due to recurrences and SPNs, increased monitoring of survivors could prevent mortality. Furthermore, bone and breast SPNs should be a particular concern. Since there are variations in the magnitude of excess risk depending on the specific adverse outcome under investigation and whether the survivors were initially diagnosed with osteosarcoma or Ewing sarcoma, risks need to be assessed in relation to these factors. These findings should provide useful evidence for risk stratification and updating clinical follow-up guidelines.

Risk of Adverse Health and Social Outcomes Up to 50 Years After Wilms Tumor: The British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study

PURPOSE Survivors of Wilms tumor (WT) are at risk for adverse health and social outcomes but risks beyond 30 years from diagnosis remain uncertain. We investigated the risks of adverse outcomes among 5-year survivors of WT, in particular, those between 30 and 50 years from diagnosis. PATIENTS AND METHODS The British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study includes 1,441 5-year survivors of WT. We investigated cause-specific mortality, risk of subsequent primary neoplasms (SPNs), and, for those who completed a questionnaire, the extent of smoking and drinking, educational achievement, health status, and health service use compared with the general population. RESULTS Cumulative risk of death from all causes, excluding recurrence, increased substantially from 5.4% to 22.7% at 30 years and 50 years, respectively, after WT diagnosis-75% of excess deaths beyond 30 years from diagnosis were attributable to SPNs (50%) and cardiac diseases (25%). Digestive cancer, most frequently bowel, accounted for 41% of excess cancers beyond 30 years. CONCLUSION Between 30 and 50 years from diagnosis, survivors of WT are at a substantially increased risk of premature mortality, and 75% of excess deaths were accounted for by SPNs and cardiac diseases. Radiotherapy exposure was a risk factor for both outcomes. The proportion of patients with WT who are exposed to radiotherapy has reduced substantially in recent decades because of initiatives such as the SIOP WT 2001 clinical trial, which sought to reduce late effects; however, the majority of current survivors, who are at least 30 years from diagnosis, received radiotherapy. Surveillance of this group should focus on SPNs, in particular, bowel and breast cancers, and cardiac conditions.

Pregnancy and Labor Complications in Female Survivors of Childhood Cancer: The British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study

Abstract Background: Female survivors of childhood cancer treated with abdominal radiotherapy who manage to conceive are at risk of delivering premature and low-birthweight offspring, but little is known about whether abdominal radiotherapy may also be associated with additional complications during pregnancy and labor. We investigated the risk of developing pregnancy and labor complications among female survivors of childhood cancer in the British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (BCCSS). Methods: Pregnancy and labor complications were identified by linking the BCCSS cohort (n = 17 980) to the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) for England. Relative risks (RRs) of pregnancy and labor complications were calculated by site of radiotherapy treatment (none/abdominal/cranial/other) and other cancer-related factors using log-binomial regression. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: A total of 2783 singleton pregnancies among 1712 female survivors of childhood cancer were identified in HES. Wilms tumor survivors treated with abdominal radiotherapy were at threefold risk of hypertension complicating pregnancy (relative risk = 3.29, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.29 to 4.71), while all survivors treated with abdominal radiotherapy were at risk of gestational diabetes mellitus (RR = 3.35, 95% CI = 1.41 to 7.93) and anemia complicating pregnancy (RR = 2.10, 95% CI = 1.27 to 3.46) compared with survivors treated without radiotherapy. Survivors treated without radiotherapy had similar risks of pregnancy and labor complications as the general population, except survivors were more likely to opt for an elective cesarean section (RR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.16 to 1.70). Conclusions: Treatment with abdominal radiotherapy increases the risk of developing hypertension complicating pregnancy in Wilms tumor survivors, and diabetes mellitus and anemia complicating pregnancy in all survivors. These patients may require extra vigilance during pregnancy.

The global cancer burden and human development: A review:

Aims: This review examines the links between human development and cancer overall and for specific types of cancer, as well as cancer-related risk-factors and outcomes, such as disability and life expectancy. Methods: To assess human development, the Human Development Index was utilized continuously and according to four levels (low, medium, high, very high), where the low and very high categories include the least and most developed countries, respectively. All studies that assessed aspects of the global cancer burden using this measure were reviewed. Results: Although the present cancer incidence burden is greater in higher Human Development Index countries, a greater proportion of the global mortality burden is observed in less developed countries, with a higher mean fatality rate in the latter countries. Further, the future cancer burden is expected to disproportionally affect less developed regions; in particular, it has been estimated that low and medium Human Development Index countries will experience a 100% and 81% increase in cancer incidence from 2008 to 2030, respectively. Disparities were also observed in risk factors and average health outcomes, such as a greater number of years of life lost prematurely and fewer cancer-related gains in life expectancy observed in lower versus higher Human Development Index settings. Conclusions: From a global perspective, there remain clear disparities in the cancer burden according to national Human Development Index scores. International efforts are needed to aid countries in social and economic transition in order to efficiently plan, implement and evaluate cancer control initiatives as a means to reduce the widening gap in cancer occurrence and survival worldwide.

Risk of Subsequent Bone Cancers Among 69 460 Five-Year Survivors of Childhood and Adolescent Cancer in Europe

Introduction We investigate the risks of subsequent primary bone cancers after childhood and adolescent cancer in 12 European countries. For the first time, we satisfactorily address the risks beyond 40 years from diagnosis and beyond 40 years of age among all survivors. Methods This largest-ever assembled cohort comprises 69 460 five-year survivors of cancer diagnosed before age 20 years. Standardized incidence ratios, absolute excess risks, and multivariable-adjusted relative risks and relative excess risks were calculated. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Overall, survivors were 21.65 times (95% confidence interval = 18.97 to 24.60 times) more likely to be diagnosed with a subsequent primary bone cancer than expected from the general population. The greatest excess numbers of bone cancers were observed after retinoblastoma, bone sarcoma, and soft tissue sarcoma. The excess number of bone cancers declined linearly with both years since diagnosis and attained age (all P < .05). Beyond 40 years from diagnosis and age 40 years, there were at most 0.45 excess bone cancers among all survivors per 10 000 person-years at risk; beyond 30 years from diagnosis and age 30 years, there were at most 5.02 excess bone cancers after each of retinoblastoma, bone sarcoma, and soft tissue sarcoma, per 10 000 person-years at risk. Conclusions For all survivors combined and the cancer groups with the greatest excess number of bone cancers, the excess numbers observed declined with both age and years from diagnosis. These results provide novel, reliable, and unbiased information about risks and risk factors among long-term survivors of childhood and adolescent cancer.