Mirela G. Tulbure

Prairie Wetland Complexes as Landscape Functional Units in a Changing Climate

The wetland complex is the functional ecological unit of the prairie pothole region (PPR) of central North America. Diverse complexes of wetlands contribute high spatial and temporal environmental heterogeneity, productivity, and biodiversity to these glaciated prairie landscapes. Climatewarming simulations using the new model WETLANDSCAPE (WLS) project major reductions in water volume, shortening of hydroperiods, and less-dynamic vegetation for prairie wetland complexes. The WLS model portrays the future PPR as a much less resilient ecosystem: The western PPR will be too dry and the eastern PPR will have too few functional wetlands and nesting habitat to support historic levels of waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. Maintaining ecosystem goods and services at current levels in a warmer climate will be a major challenge for the conservation community.

Rapid Invasion of a Great Lakes Coastal Wetland by Non-native Phragmites australis and Typha

ABSTRACT Great Lakes coastal wetlands are subject to water level fluctuations that promote the maintenance of coastal wetlands. Point au Sauble, a Green Bay coastal wetland, was an open water lagoon as of 1999, but became entirely vegetated as Lake Michigan experienced a prolonged period of below-average water levels. Repeat visits in 2001 and 2004 documented a dramatic change in emergent wetland vegetation communities. In 2001 non-native Phragmites and Typha were present but their cover was sparse; in 2004 half of the transect was covered by a 3 m tall, invasive Phragmites and non-native Typha community. Percent similarity between plant species present in 2001 versus 2004 was approximately 19% (Jaccards coefficient), indicating dramatic changes in species composition that took place in only 3 years. The height of the dominant herbaceous plants and coverage by invasive species were significantly higher in 2004 than they were in 2001. However, floristic quality index and coefficient of conservatism were greater in 2004 than 2001. Cover by plant litter did not differ between 2001 and 2004. The prolonged period of below-average water levels between 1999 and early 2004 exposed unvegetated lagoon bottoms as mud flats, which provided substrate for new plant colonization and created conditions conducive to colonization by invasive taxa. PCR/RFLP analysis revealed that Phragmites from Point au Sauble belongs to the more aggressive, introduced genotype. It displaces native vegetation and is tolerant of a wide range of water depth. Therefore it may disrupt the natural cycles of vegetation replacement that occur under native plant communities in healthy Great Lakes coastal wetlands.

Assessing the use of multiseason QuickBird imagery for mapping invasive species in a Lake Erie coastal marsh.

QuickBird multispectral satellite images taken in September 2002 (peak biomass) and April 2003 (pre-growing season) were used to map emergent wetland vegetation communities, particularly invasive Phragmites australis and Typha spp., within a diked wetland at the western end of Lake Erie. An unsupervised classification was performed on a nine-layer image stack consisting of all four spectral bands from both dates plus a September Normalized Difference Vegetation Index image. The resulting eight cover classes distinguished three monodominant genera (Phragmites australis, Typha spp., Nelumbo lutea), three multigenera plant communities (wet meadow, other non persistent emergents, woody vegetation), and two unvegetated cover types (water, bare soil). Field validation at 196 data points yielded an overall classification accuracy of 62%, with producer’s accuracy for the eight individual classes ranging from 41 to 91% and user’s accuracy from 17 to 90%. Three-fourths of areas designated as Phragmites were correctly mapped, but 14% were found to be cattail (Typha) during field validation. Lotus (Nelumbo lutea) beds were accurately mapped on multiseason imagery (producer’s accuracy = 91%); these beds had not yet emerged above water in April, but were fully developed in September. Other types of non persistent vegetation were confused with managed areas in which vegetation had been cut and burned to control invasive Phragmites. Multiseason QuickBird imagery is promising for distinguishing certain wetland plant species, but should be used with caution in highly managed areas where vegetation changes may reflect human alterations rather than phenological change.

A unifying approach for evaluating the condition of wetland plant communities and identifying related stressors.

Assessment of vegetation is an important part of evaluating wetland condition, but it is complicated by the variety of plant communities that are naturally present in freshwater wetlands. We present an approach to evaluate wetland condition consisting of: (1) a stratified random sample representing the entire range of anthropogenic stress, (2) field data representing a range of water depths within the wetlands sampled, (3) nonmetric multidimensional scaling (MDS) to determine a biological condition gradient across the wetlands sampled, (4) hierarchical clustering to interpret the condition results relative to recognizable plant communities, (5) classification and regression tree (CART) analysis to relate biological condition to natural and anthropogenic environmental drivers, and (6) mapping the results to display their geographic distribution. We applied this approach to plant species data collected at 90 wetlands of the U.S. Great Lakes coast that support a variety of plant communities, reflecting the diverse physical environment and anthropogenic stressors present within the region. Hierarchical cluster analysis yielded eight plant communities at a minimum similarity of 25%. Wetlands that clustered botanically were often geographically clustered as well, even though location was not an input variable in the analysis. The eight vegetation clusters corresponded well with the MDS configuration of the data, in which the first axis was strongly related (R2 = 0.787, P < 0.001) with floristic quality index (FQI) and the second axis was related to the Great Lake of occurrence. CART models using FQI and the first MDS axis as the response variables explained 75% and 82% of the variance in the data, resulting in 6-7 terminal groups spanning the condition gradient. Initial CART splits divided the region based on growing degree-days and cumulative anthropogenic stress; only after making these broad divisions were wetlands distinguished by more local characteristics. Agricultural and urban development variables were important correlates of wetland biological condition, generating optimal or surrogate splits at every split node of the MDS CART model. Our findings provide a means of using vegetation to evaluate a range of wetland condition across a broad and diverse geographic region.

Plant Species Indicators of Physical Environment in Great Lakes Coastal Wetlands

ABSTRACT Plant taxa identified in 90 U.S. Great Lakes coastal emergent wetlands were evaluated as indicators of physical environment. Canonical correspondence analysis using the 40 most common taxa showed that water depth and tussock height explained the greatest amount of species-environment interaction among ten environmental factors measured as continuous variables (water depth, tussock height, latitude, longitude, and six ground cover categories). Indicator species analysis was used to identify species-environment interactions with categorical variables of soil type (sand, silt, clay, organic) and hydrogeomorphic type (Open-Coast Wetlands, River-Influenced Wetlands, Protected Wetlands). Of the 169 taxa that occurred in a minimum of four study sites and ten plots, 48 were hydrogeomorphic indicators and 90 were soil indicators. Most indicators of Protected Wetlands were bog and fen species which were also organic soil indicators. Protected Wetlands had significantly greater average coefficient of conservatism (C) values than did Open-Coast Wetlands and River-Influenced Wetlands, but average C values did not differ significantly by soil type. Open-Coast and River-Influenced hydrogeomorphic types tended to have sand or silt soils. Clay soils were found primarily in areas with Quaternary glaciolacustrine deposits or clay-rich tills. A fuller understanding of how the physical environment influences plant species distribution will improve our ability to detect the response of wetland vegetation to anthropogenic activities.

PARTITIONING VEGETATION RESPONSE TO ANTHROPOGENIC STRESS TO DEVELOP MULTI‐TAXA WETLAND INDICATORS

Emergent plants can be suitable indicators of anthropogenic stress in coastal wetlands if their responses to natural environmental variation can be parsed from their responses to human activities in and around wetlands. We used hierarchical partitioning to evaluate the independent influence of geomorphology, geography, and anthropogenic stress on common wetland plants of the U.S. Great Lakes coast and developed multi-taxa models indicating wetland condition. A seven-taxon model predicted condition relative to watershed-derived anthropogenic stress, and a four-taxon model predicted condition relative to within-wetland anthropogenic stressors that modified hydrology. The Great Lake on which the wetlands occurred explained an average of about half the variation in species cover, and subdividing the data by lake allowed us to remove that source of variation. We developed lake-specific multi-taxa models for all of the Great Lakes except Lake Ontario, which had no plant species with significant independent effects of anthropogenic stress. Plant responses were both positive (increasing cover with stress) and negative (decreasing cover with stress), and plant taxa incorporated into the lake-specific models differed by Great Lake. The resulting models require information on only a few taxa, rather than all plant species within a wetland, making them easier to implement than existing indicators.

Big data opportunities and challenges for assessing multiple stressors across scales in aquatic ecosystems

Aquatic ecosystems are under threat from multiple stressors, which vary in distribution and intensity across temporal and spatial scales. Monitoring and assessment of these ecosystems have historically focussed on collection of physical and chemical information and increasingly include associated observations on biological condition. However, ecosystem assessment is often lacking because the scale and quality of biological observations frequently fail to match those available from physical and chemical measurements. The advent of high-performance computing, coupled with new earth observation platforms, has accelerated the adoption of molecular and remote sensing tools in ecosystem assessment. To assess how emerging science and tools can be applied to study multiple stressors on a large (ecosystem) scale and to facilitate greater integration of approaches among different scientific disciplines, a workshop was held on 10–12 September 2014 at the Sydney Institute of Marine Sciences, Australia. Here we introduce a conceptual framework for assessing multiple stressors across ecosystems using emerging sources of big data and critique a range of available big-data types that could support models for multiple stressors. We define big data as any set or series of data, which is either so large or complex, it becomes difficult to analyse using traditional data analysis methods.

Surface water network structure, landscape resistance to movement and flooding vital for maintaining ecological connectivity across Australia’s largest river basin

ContextLandscape-scale research quantifying ecological connectivity is required to maintain the viability of populations in dynamic environments increasingly impacted by anthropogenic modification and environmental change.ObjectiveTo evaluate how surface water network structure, landscape resistance to movement, and flooding affect the connectivity of amphibian habitats within the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB), a highly modified but ecologically significant region of south-eastern Australia.MethodsWe evaluated potential connectivity network graphs based on circuit theory, Euclidean and least-cost path distances for two amphibian species with different dispersal abilities, and used graph theory metrics to compare regional- and patch-scale connectivity across a range of flooding scenarios.ResultsCircuit theory graphs were more connected than Euclidean and least-cost equivalents in floodplain environments, and less connected in highly modified or semi-arid regions. Habitat networks were highly fragmented for both species, with flooding playing a crucial role in facilitating landscape-scale connectivity. Both formally and informally protected habitats were more likely to form important connectivity “hubs” or “stepping stones” compared to non-protected habitats, and increased in importance with flooding.ConclusionsSurface water network structure and the quality of the intervening landscape matrix combine to affect the connectivity of MDB amphibian habitats in ways which vary spatially and in response to flooding. Our findings highlight the importance of utilising organism-relevant connectivity models which incorporate landscape resistance to movement, and accounting for dynamic landscape-scale processes such as flooding when quantifying connectivity to inform the conservation of dynamic and highly modified environments.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of surface water networks across a global biodiversity hotspot—implications for conservation

The concept of habitat networks represents an important tool for landscape conservation and management at regional scales. Previous studies simulated degradation of temporally fixed networks but few quantified the change in network connectivity from disintegration of key features that undergo naturally occurring spatiotemporal dynamics. This is particularly of concern for aquatic systems, which typically show high natural spatiotemporal variability. Here we focused on the Swan Coastal Plain, a bioregion that encompasses a global biodiversity hotspot in Australia with over 1500 water bodies of high biodiversity. Using graph theory, we conducted a temporal analysis of water body connectivity over 13 years of variable climate. We derived large networks of surface water bodies using Landsat data (1999–2011). We generated an ensemble of 278 potential networks at three dispersal distances approximating the maximum dispersal distance of different water dependent organisms. We assessed network connectivity through several network topology metrics and quantified the resilience of the network topology during wet and dry phases. We identified ‘stepping stone’ water bodies across time and compared our networks with theoretical network models with known properties. Results showed a highly dynamic seasonal pattern of variability in network topology metrics. A decline in connectivity over the 13 years was noted with potential negative consequences for species with limited dispersal capacity. The networks described here resemble theoretical scale-free models, also known as ‘rich get richer’ algorithm. The ‘stepping stone’ water bodies are located in the area around the Peel-Harvey Estuary, a Ramsar listed site, and some are located in a national park. Our results describe a powerful approach that can be implemented when assessing the connectivity for a particular organism with known dispersal distance. The approach of identifying the surface water bodies that act as ‘stepping stone’ over time may help prioritize surface water bodies that are essential for maintaining regional scale connectivity.

Response of switchgrass yield to future climate change

A climate envelope approach was used to model the response of switchgrass, a model bioenergy species in the United States, to future climate change. The model was built using general additive models (GAMs), and switchgrass yields collected at 45 field trial locations as the response variable. The model incorporated variables previously shown to be the main determinants of switchgrass yield, and utilized current and predicted 1 km climate data from WorldClim. The models were run with current WorldClim data and compared with results of predicted yield obtained using two climate change scenarios across three global change models for three time steps. Results did not predict an increase in maximum switchgrass yield but showed an overall shift in areas of high switchgrass productivity for both cytotypes. For upland cytotypes, the shift in high yields was concentrated in northern and north-eastern areas where there were increases in average growing season temperature, whereas for lowland cultivars the areas where yields were projected to increase were associated with increases in average early growing season precipitation. These results highlight the fact that the influences of climate change on switchgrass yield are spatially heterogeneous and vary depending on cytotype. Knowledge of spatial distribution of suitable areas for switchgrass production under climate change should be incorporated into planning of current and future biofuel production. Understanding how switchgrass yields will be affected by future changes in climate is important for achieving a sustainable biofuels economy.