Mirko Di Febbraro

The Use of Climatic Niches in Screening Procedures for Introduced Species to Evaluate Risk of Spread: A Case with the American Eastern Grey Squirrel

Species introduction represents one of the most serious threats for biodiversity. The realized climatic niche of an invasive species can be used to predict its potential distribution in new areas, providing a basis for screening procedures in the compilation of black and white lists to prevent new introductions. We tested this assertion by modeling the realized climatic niche of the Eastern grey squirrel Sciurus carolinensis. Maxent was used to develop three models: one considering only records from the native range (NRM), a second including records from native and invasive range (NIRM), a third calibrated with invasive occurrences and projected in the native range (RCM). Niche conservatism was tested considering both a niche equivalency and a niche similarity test. NRM failed to predict suitable parts of the currently invaded range in Europe, while RCM underestimated the suitability in the native range. NIRM accurately predicted both the native and invasive range. The niche equivalency hypothesis was rejected due to a significant difference between the grey squirrel’s niche in native and invasive ranges. The niche similarity test yielded no significant results. Our analyses support the hypothesis of a shift in the species’ climatic niche in the area of introductions. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) appear to be a useful tool in the compilation of black lists, allowing identifying areas vulnerable to invasions. We advise caution in the use of SDMs based only on the native range of a species for the compilation of white lists for other geographic areas, due to the significant risk of underestimating its potential invasive range.

What Story Does Geographic Separation of Insular Bats Tell? A Case Study on Sardinian Rhinolophids

Competition may lead to changes in a species’ environmental niche in areas of sympatry and shifts in the niche of weaker competitors to occupy areas where stronger ones are rarer. Although mainland Mediterranean (Rhinolophus euryale) and Mehely’s (R. mehelyi) horseshoe bats mitigate competition by habitat partitioning, this may not be true on resource-limited systems such as islands. We hypothesize that Sardinian R. euryale (SAR) have a distinct ecological niche suited to persist in the south of Sardinia where R. mehelyi is rarer. Assuming that SAR originated from other Italian populations (PES) – mostly allopatric with R. mehelyi – once on Sardinia the former may have undergone niche displacement driven by R. mehelyi. Alternatively, its niche could have been inherited from a Maghrebian source population. We: a) generated Maxent Species Distribution Models (SDM) for Sardinian populations; b) calibrated a model with PES occurrences and projected it to Sardinia to see whether PES niche would increase R. euryale’s sympatry with R. mehelyi; and c) tested for niche similarity between R. mehelyi and PES, PES and SAR, and R. mehelyi and SAR. Finally we predicted R. euryale’s range in Northern Africa both in the present and during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) by calibrating SDMs respectively with SAR and PES occurrences and projecting them to the Maghreb. R. mehelyi and PES showed niche similarity potentially leading to competition. According to PES’ niche, R. euryale would show a larger sympatry with R. mehelyi on Sardinia than according to SAR niche. Such niches have null similarity. The current and LGM Maghrebian ranges of R. euryale were predicted to be wide according to SAR’s niche, negligible according to PES’ niche. SAR’s niche allows R. euryale to persist where R. mehelyi is rarer and competition probably mild. Possible explanations may be competition-driven niche displacement or Maghrebian origin.

A new method for testing evolutionary rate variation and shifts in phenotypic evolution

Quantifying phenotypic evolutionary rates and their variation across phylogenetic trees is a major issue in evolutionary biology. A number of phylogenetic comparative methods (PCMs) currently perform such task. However, available PCMs can locate rate shifts pertaining to entire portions of the phylogeny, but not those expected to occur at the level of individual species and lineages, such as with the idea that body size changes more rapidly in insular vertebrates. Still, most PCMs cannot deal with fossil phylogenies, albeit fossils provide highly desirable information when it comes to understand trait variation and evolution. We developed a PCM based on phylogenetic ridge regression, which we named RRphylo, which assigns an evolutionary rate to each branch of the phylogeny, and is designed to locate rate shifts relating to entire clades, as well as to unrelated tree tips. We tested RRphylo on simulated trees and data to assess its performance under different conditions. Then, we repeated its application with two real case scenarios, the evolution of flight in ornithodirans and mammals and body size evolution in insular mammals, which are usually subsumed to evolve under different range regimes than terrestrial and continental species respectively. RRphylo performs well across all different conditions. The simulation experiments demonstrated it has low Type I and Type II error rate. We found significant evidence that flight accelerates the rate of body size evolution in vertebrates, and that the acquisition of very large body size slows down the rate. Still, insular mammals body size evolution is not faster than in continental species. RRphylo is a new PCM ideal to estimate variation and shift in the rate of phenotypic evolution with fossil data. In addition to testing evolutionary rate variation, it is open to a variety of further questions, such as the evolution of rates in time, the estimation of ancestral states and the estimation of phenotypic trends over time.

Ignoring seasonal changes in the ecological niche of non-migratory species may lead to biases in potential distribution models: lessons from bats

Phenology is a key feature in the description of species niches to capture seasonality in resource use and climate requirements. Species distribution models (SDMs) are widespread tools to evaluate a species’ potential distribution and identify its large-scale habitat preferences. Despite its chief importance, data phenology is often neglected in SDM development. Non-migratory bats of temperate regions are good model species to test the effect of data seasonality on SDM outputs because of their different roosting preferences between hibernation and reproduction. We hypothesized that (1) the output of SDMs developed for six non-migratory European bat species will differ between hibernation and reproduction; (2) models built from datasets encompassing both ecological stages will perform better than seasonal models. We employed a dataset of 470 independent occurrences of bat hibernacula and 400 independent records of nursery roosts of selected species and for each species we developed separate winter, summer and mixed (i.e. generated from both winter and summer occurrences) models. Seasonal and mixed potential ranges differed from each other and the direction of this difference was species-specific. Mixed models outperformed seasonal models in representing species niches. Our work highlights the importance of considering data seasonality in the development of SDMs for bats as well as many other organisms, including non-migratory species, otherwise the analysis will lead to significant biases whose consequences for conservation planning and landscape management may be detrimental.

Diversification Rates and the Evolution of Species Range Size Frequency Distribution

The geographic range sizes frequency distribution (RFD) within clades is typically right-skewed with untransformed data, and bell-shaped or slightly left-skewed under the log-transformation. This means that most species within clades occupy diminutive ranges, whereas just a few species are truly widespread. A number of ecological and evolutionary explanations have been proposed to account for this pattern. Among the latter, much attention has been given to the issue of how extinction and speciation probabilities influence RFD. Numerous accounts now convincingly demonstrate that extinction rate decreases with range size, both in living and extinct taxa. The relationship between range size and speciation rate, though, is much less obvious, with either small or large ranged species being proposed to originate more daughter taxa. Herein, we used a large fossil database including twenty-one animal clades and more than 80,000 fossil occurrences distributed over more than 400 million years of marine metazoans (exclusive of vertebrates) evolution, to test the relationship between extinction rate, speciation rate, and range size. As expected, we found that extinction rate almost linearly decreases with range size. In contrast, speciation rate peaks at the large (but not the largest) end of the range size spectrum. This is consistent with the peripheral isolation mode of allopatric speciation being the main mechanism of species origination. The huge variation in phylogeny, fossilization potential, time of fossilization, and the overarching effect of mass extinctions suggest caution must be posed at generalizing our results, as individual clades may deviate significantly from the general pattern.