Mirta Patarčić

Skill of 2-m Temperature Seasonal Forecasts over Europe in ECMWF and RegCM Models

AbstractVarious measures of forecast quality are analyzed for 2-m temperature seasonal forecasts over Europe from global and regional model ensembles for winter and summer seasons during the period 1991 to 2001. The 50-km Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) is used to dynamically downscale nine-member ensembles of ECMWF global experimental seasonal forecasts. Three sets of RegCM3 experiments with different soil moisture initializations are performed: the RegCM3 default initial soil moisture, initial soil moisture taken from ECMWF seasonal forecasts, and initial soil moisture obtained from RegCM3 ECMWF interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim)-driven integrations (RegCM3 climatology). Both deterministic and probabilistic skill metrics are estimated.The better-resolved spatial scales in near-surface temperature by RegCM3 do not necessarily lead to the improved regional model skill in the regions where systematic errors are large. The impact of initial soil moisture on RegCM3 forecast skill is seen in summer in the sout...

Climate variability, soil and forest ecosystem diversity of Dinaric Mountains

The Dinaric mountains in Croatia present one of the hot spots of European biodiversity, possessing a very large number of species and hosting most endemics. The Dinaric mountains in Croatia strongly affect the climate of the Adriatic region, making a distinct boundary between the maritime and a continental climate. In this chapter, an overview of climatic conditions of the Dinaric area is provided, including observed climatic changes of temperatures and precipitation in the last century. Existing soil types were assessed and described, in particular with respect to soil-forming processes. The role of climate as a dominant factor of soil formation was evaluated in relationship to other factors such as lithology and topography. Also, the occurrence of a specific broad range of forest associations in Dinarides was presented. We examined the correspondence between forest vegetation, soil, and climatic properties in the Dinaric area. As a finale, some future, very possible scenarios of regional climatic development are presented as a serious hazard to the sustainability of natural forest resources. We determined the variety of soil types, ranging from soils that are characteristic for Mediterranean (on limestone) such as Terra rossa with intensive red color, calcomelanosols and calcicambisols in high karst, to soils characteristic for continental climate (on flint or silica) such as dystric cambisols and luvisols. The forest vegetation of the Dinaric mountains constitutes 54 diverse forest ecosystem types, encompassing specific combinations of soil and phytocoenoses. Existing ecosystems form nine broader groups, that is, bioclimates, which are typical for Dinarides.