Misa Ishizawa

Role of biomass burning and climate anomalies for land‐atmosphere carbon fluxes based on inverse modeling of atmospheric CO2

lower than those estimated from TDI model results, by about 1.0 Pg-C yr � 1 for the periods and regions of intense fire. The correlation and principal component analyses suggest that changes in meteorology (i.e., rainfall and air temperature) associated with the

Top–down assessment of the Asian carbon budget since the mid 1990s

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is the principal driver of anthropogenic climate change. Asia is an important region for the global carbon budget, with 4 of the worlds 10 largest national emitters of CO2. Using an ensemble of seven atmospheric inverse systems, we estimated land biosphere fluxes (natural, land-use change and fires) based on atmospheric observations of CO2 concentration. The Asian land biosphere was a net sink of −0.46 (−0.70–0.24) PgC per year (median and range) for 1996–2012 and was mostly located in East Asia, while in South and Southeast Asia the land biosphere was close to carbon neutral. In East Asia, the annual CO2 sink increased between 1996–2001 and 2008–2012 by 0.56 (0.30–0.81) PgC, accounting for ∼35% of the increase in the global land biosphere sink. Uncertainty in the fossil fuel emissions contributes significantly (32%) to the uncertainty in land biosphere sink change.

A multi-box model study of the role of the biospheric metabolism in the recent decline of δ18O in atmospheric CO2

Abstract From around 1993 to 1997, the NOAA-CU δ18O measurements at Pt. Barrow, Mauna Loa, Cape Kumukahi, Cape Grim and the South Pole show a decrease in atmospheric CO2δ18O of about 0.5°. Recently,Gillon and Yakir (2001) have attributed this decrease to a conversion of C3 forests to C4 grasslands through anthropogenic land-use change. However, their explanation can account for only about 0.02° yr−1 decrease rate. In this paper we offer a viable alternative explanation. We have used a multi-box model of the global carbon cycle and its δ18O to show that an increase in biospheric respiration (CO2 flux from plant with lower-than-atmosphereδ18O), combined with a decrease in the amount of CO2 (with higher-than-atmosphere δ18O) diffusing back from plant leaves before being assimilated as part of the gross primary production (GPP), could produce the observed decline in the atmospheric CO2δ18O. This decrease in the CO2 back diffusion out of leaves could be interpreted as an overall increase in both biospheric activities of photosynthesis and respiration. Change in the metabolic activities of the biosphere as a possible cause for the observed decrease inδ18O is a reasonable hypothesis, since isotopic fractionations that occur during CO2 exchange processes (photosynthesis and respiration) between the atmosphere and the biosphere contribute significantly to the observed variations in atmospheric CO2δ18O, while contribution from the net air-sea CO2 exchange is negligible.

Inter‐annual variability of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as simulated with global terrestrial biosphere models and an atmospheric transport model

Seasonal and inter-annual variations of atmospheric CO2 for the period from 1961 to 1997 have been simulated using a global tracer transport model driven by a new version of the Biome BioGeochemical Cycle model (Biome-BGC). Biome-BGC was forced by daily temperature and precipitation from the NCEP reanalysis dataset, and the calculated monthly-averaged CO2 fluxes were used as input to the global transport model. Results from an inter-comparison with the Carnegie—Ames—Stanford Approach model (CASA) and the Simulation model of Carbon cYCle in Land Ecosystems (Sim-CYCLE) model are also reported. The phase of the seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere was reproduced generally well by Biome-BGC, although the amplitude was smaller compared to the observations and to the other biosphere models. The CO2 time series simulated by Biome-BGC were compared to the global CO2concentration anomalies from the observations at Mauna Loa and the South Pole. The modeled concentration anomalies matched the phase of the inter-annual variations in the atmospheric CO2 observations; however, the modeled amplitude was lower than the observed value in several cases. The result suggests that a significant part of the inter-annual variability in the global carbon cycle can be accounted for by the terrestrial biosphere models. Simulations performed with another climate-based model, Sim-CYCLE, produced a larger amplitude of inter-annual variability in atmospheric CO2, making the amplitude closer to the observed range, but with a more visible phase mismatch in a number of time periods. This may indicate the need to increase the Biome-BGC model sensitivity to seasonal and inter-annual changes in temperature and precipitation.

U.S. CH4 emissions from oil and gas production: Have recent large increases been detected?

Recent studies have proposed significant increases in CH4 emissions possibly from oil and gas (O&G) production, especially for the U.S. where O&G production has reached historically high levels over the past decade. In this study, we show that an ensemble of time-dependent atmospheric inversions constrained by calibrated atmospheric observations of surface CH4 mole fraction, with some including space-based retrievals of column average CH4 mole fractions, suggests that North American CH4 emissions have been flat over years spanning 2000 through 2012. Estimates of emission trends using zonal gradients of column average CH4 calculated relative to an upstream background are not easy to make due to atmospheric variability, relative insensitivity of column average CH4 to surface emissions at regional scales, and fast zonal synoptic transport. In addition, any trends in continental enhancements of column average CH4 are sensitive to how the upstream background is chosen, and model simulations imply that short-term (4 years or less) trends in column average CH4 horizontal gradients of up to 1.5 ppb/yr can occur just from interannual transport variability acting on a strong latitudinal CH4 gradient. Finally, trends in spatial gradients calculated from space-based column average CH4 can be significantly biased (>2–3 ppb/yr) due to the nonuniform and seasonally varying temporal coverage of satellite retrievals.