Mischel Carmen Neyra Belderrain

Estruturação do problema de gerenciamento de desastres do estado de São Paulo por intermédio do método Strategic Options Development and Analysis

It is estimated that approximately five million Brazilians have been affected by natural disasters in the past four years. In addition to the financial loss, the major consequences are the negative social impact and the high number of deaths, which should be minimized by Government Agencies. However, the aforementioned Agencies have shown to be partially or completely incapable of properly reacting against these disasters due to numerous mishaps that have not yet been fully identified. To this end, aiming at the adequate structuring of the problematic situation, the method of Strategic Options Development and Analysis has been employed. Through this method, it was possible to map out the Civil Defense System of the state of Sao Paulo, enabling the identification of several obstacles and the establishment of a broad understanding on the matter. Therefore, we expect that our findings may be used as a starting point for future researches aimed at developing solutions to the previously mentioned problems.

A systemic framework based on Soft OR approaches to support teamwork strategy: an aviation manufacturer Brazilian company case

Abstract The paper reports on the application of a combination of Operational Research (OR) approaches to a real-world case of re-designing the strategy of a department management team, in an aircraft manufacturing organization in Brazil. We combine approaches from ‘Soft’ OR Problem Structuring Methods in a multi-methodological framework arguing that this helps to discuss, develop and implement a new departmental strategy. The proposed framework uses elements of Soft Systems Methodology; Strategic Options Development and Analysis to understand and structure the situation; Value-Focused Thinking to define the means and objectives; and Value-Focused Brainstorming to highlight the potential solutions. We conceptualize a four-phased systemic framework linking elements of the above four ‘Soft’ OR approaches and apply it to a real-world case in a department where a new team leader was appointed with the specific brief to improve the departmental strategy and its performance in general. Findings suggest that combining the approaches into a framework encourages trust and participation from stakeholders which, in practice, is translated into an improved strategy for the organization. A reflection on the multi-methodological approach is proposed. Conclusions and points for further research are suggested.

Decisão em Condições de Incerteza Meteorológica e Proteção de Infraestruturas no Centro de Lançamento de Alcântara

A tomada de decisao utilizando informacoes meteorologicas muitas vezes e um processo complexo, de alto impacto e, em algumas situacoes, pode comprometer o funcionamento de instalacoes tecnologicas. Neste contexto, o objetivo deste artigo e apresentar uma abordagem de apoio a decisao em condicoes de incerteza meteorologica para a protecao das infraestruturas no Centro de Lancamento de Alcântara. A partir de uma demanda operacional, foi desenvolvido um indice meteorologico de modo a identificar a atitude dos decisores em relacao as tres caracteristicas da informacao meteorologica: a) probabilidade da previsao de tempo; b) prazo de validade; c) valor da variavel atmosferica. Como estudo de caso, foi analisado um problema real de decisao para protecao das instalacoes do principal centro espacial brasileiro. Atraves da interacao com os usuarios na construcao do indice, foi possivel concluir que para probabilidades baixas ( 24 h), o grupo de usuarios entrevistados nao utiliza a informacao meteorologica para tomar decisoes, mesmo com o prognostico de condicoes extremas. Os resultados quantitativos demonstraram que o modelo de apoio a decisao proposto conseguiu incorporar a atitude do usuario nao-meteorologista em relacao a incerteza da informacao meteorologica.

Structuring multicriteria model for airports selection for cargo airlines exclusively

ABSTRACT The scenario generated by the increasing role of lead logistics providers, as well as a possible increased competition caused by government grant for some major Brazilian international airports, is demanding from those involved in the air cargo supply chain actions that promote improvements in services in order to make them more efficient. Influenced by this concern, this paper proposes a Three-Phase Method of multicriteria decision aid for the major services of the Brazilian international air cargo logistics chain. Using the foundations of the proposed method, the Phase 1 and Phase 2 are elaborated. In Phase 1, problem consolidation was performed and also the two main logistics strategic decisions were identified. In Phase 2, structuring multicriteria model is elaborated, identifying the aspects of such as criteria and sub-criteria for strategic decision of cargo only airlines, when selecting Brazilian international airports. In this Phase is also constructed, for a specific case-study, the hierarchical structure of the problem is also constructed.Keywords: Logistics chain, airports, strategic decision, multicriteria, cognitive processes.

Multinomial Selection in the Presence of Infinite Alternatives

We propose a new procedure for the multinomial selection problem to solve a real problem of any modern Air Force: the elaboration of better air-to-air tactics for Beyond Visual Range air-to-air combat that maximize its aircraft survival probability H(θ, ω), as well as enemy aircraft downing probability G(θ, ω). In this study, using a low-resolution simulator with generic parameters for the aircraft and missiles, we could increase an average success rate of 16.69% and 16.23% for H(θ, ω) and G(θ, ω), respectively, to an average success rate of 76.85% and 79.30%. We can assure with low probability of being wrong that the selected tactic has greater probability of yielding greater success rates in both H(θ, ω) and G(θ, ω) than any simulated tactic.

COGNITIVE MAPPING APPLIED TO BRAZILIAN AEROSPACE DECISION PROBLEMS. doi: 10.5028/jatm.2011.03021211

Currently, companies are interested in adopting new methodological strategies, using the administrative cognition as a tool of growing interest for grasping the nature of their problems. The present work aims to apply the cognitive map as decision support based on the statements taken from the work discussed by Silva (2008), applying to the Brazilian Air Force (FAB) group decision problem, about what actions to take as a priority, set in the context of either buying or developing technologies for the aerospace defense of Brazil. The contribution of this paper is a Brazilian defense industry problem structuring defining the relevant criteria that should be considered for the evaluation of possible actions to be taken by the Defense Sector in Brazil.

SUPPORTING THE DESIGN OF A PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT SYSTEM WITH THE ANALYTIC NETWORK PROCESS

The development process for a Performance Measurement System (PMS) can be split into four phases: (1) design; (2) planning and construction; (3) implementation, and; (4) operation and updating. The design phase focuses on the choice of performance indicators and is crucial to the success both of the PMS and the organization. This paper deals with the design phase for a PMS based on the Performance Prism using the Analytic Network Process (ANP) for modeling and ranking of the performance indicators. The application of the ANP as support for the PMS design was executed in the higher education sector with a view to the management of an undergraduate course in Production Engineering. The model and its results assured the representation of the various stakeholders´ objectives – in a significant and balanced manner – through 58 performance indicators distributed in four clusters: satisfaction, processes, capabilities and contribution. http://dx.doi.org/10.13033/ijahp.v2i1.72

PURCHASE OF A NEW AIR SUPERIORITY FIGHTER USING THE ANALYTIC NETWORK HIERARCHY PROCESS

The F-X2 Project intends to define the purchase of new air superiority fighter for the Brazilian Air Force (BAF). The purpose of this work is to present a military-based application of the Analytic Network Process (ANP) method, adapting the F-X2 Project case to the use of fictitious data. The ANP stands out due to the fact that its characteristics provide realistic solutions. Specific literature has approached its theoretical aspects and its applications in real case and empirical studies. http://dx.doi.org/10.13033/ijahp.v2i1.73