Mitch D. Weegman

Integrated population modelling reveals a perceived source to be a cryptic sink.

Summary Demographic links among fragmented populations are commonly studied as source‐sink dynamics, whereby source populations exhibit net recruitment and net emigration, while sinks suffer net mortality but enjoy net immigration. It is commonly assumed that large, persistent aggregations of individuals must be sources, but this ignores the possibility that they are sinks instead, buoyed demographically by immigration. We tested this assumption using Bayesian integrated population modelling of Greenland white‐fronted geese (Anser albifrons flavirostris) at their largest wintering site (Wexford, Ireland), combining capture–mark–recapture, census and recruitment data collected from 1982 to 2010. Management for this subspecies occurs largely on wintering areas; thus, study of source‐sink dynamics of discrete regular wintering units provides unprecedented insights into population regulation and enables identification of likely processes influencing population dynamics at Wexford and among 70 other Greenland white‐fronted goose wintering subpopulations. Using results from integrated population modelling, we parameterized an age‐structured population projection matrix to determine the contribution of movement rates (emigration and immigration), recruitment and mortality to the dynamics of the Wexford subpopulation. Survival estimates for juvenile and adult birds at Wexford and adult birds elsewhere fluctuated over the 29‐year study period, but were not identifiably different. However, per capita recruitment rates at Wexford in later years (post‐1995) were identifiably lower than in earlier years (pre‐1995). The observed persistence of the Wexford subpopulation was only possible with high rates of immigration, which exceeded emigration in each year. Thus, despite its apparent stability, Wexford has functioned as a sink over the entire study period. These results demonstrate that even large subpopulations can potentially be sinks, and that movement dynamics (e.g. immigration) among winters can dramatically obscure key processes driving subpopulation size. Further, novel population models which integrate capture–mark–recapture, census and recruitment data are essential to correctly ascribing source‐sink status and accurately informing development of site‐safeguard networks.

Integrated population models reveal local weather conditions are the key drivers of population dynamics in an aerial insectivore

Changes to weather patterns under a warming climate are complex: while warmer temperatures are expected virtually worldwide, decreased mean precipitation is expected at mid-latitudes. Migratory birds depend on broad-scale weather patterns to inform timing of movements, but may be more susceptible to local weather patterns during sedentary periods. We constructed Bayesian integrated population models (IPMs) to assess whether continental or local weather effects best explained population dynamics in an environmentally sensitive aerial insectivorous bird, the tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor), along a transcontinental gradient from British Columbia to Saskatchewan to New York, and tested whether population dynamics were synchronous among sites. Little consistency existed among sites in the demographic rates most affecting population growth rate or in correlations among rates. Juvenile apparent survival at all sites was stable over time and greatest in New York, whereas adult apparent survival was more variable among years and sites, and greatest in British Columbia and Saskatchewan. Fledging success was greatest in Saskatchewan. Local weather conditions explained significant variation in adult survival in Saskatchewan and fledging success in New York, corroborating the hypothesis that local more than continental weather drives the population dynamics of this species and, therefore, demographic synchrony measured at three sites was limited. Nonetheless, multi-population IPMs can be a powerful tool for identifying correlated population trajectories caused by synchronous demographic rates, and can pinpoint the scale at which environmental drivers are responsible for changes. We caution against applying uniform conservation actions for populations where synchrony does not occur or is not fully understood.

Chromium and Selenium in Invertebrate Prey of Lesser Scaup

Abstract The combined lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) and greater scaup (A. marila) population in North America has steadily declined from an average of 7.5 million breeding birds in the 1970s to an all-time low of 3.39 million in 2005. Bioaccumulation is widely known as the means of elevated levels of toxins in vertebrates. Our goal was to determine whether chromium and selenium were factors contributing to the continental scaup population decline by identifying wetlands used by scaup that potentially contain dangerous concentrations of chromium and selenium. We hypothesized that zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) would contain the highest concentrations of selenium and chromium because they are filter feeders, whereas amphipods would contain the lowest concentrations because of their short life span. We collected zebra mussels, fingernail clams (Sphaerium transversum), chironomid larvae, snails (Gastropoda), and amphipods on randomly selected traditional lesser scaup staging and breeding wetlands. We found higher chromium concentrations in zebra mussels from Iowa, USA, than in those from Wisconsin, USA (P = 0.0074). In addition, selenium concentrations in zebra mussels from Wisconsin were higher than in those from Iowa (P < 0.0001). Higher selenium concentrations in amphipods were associated with sampled wetlands surrounded by developed land. Invertebrates with >5 μg/g selenium and >1 μg/g chromium are potentially hazardous for scaup. Chromium concentrations in Iowa were the highest for most species examined, whereas they were the lowest in Minnesota, USA. Based on our results, lesser scaup probably accumulate the highest concentrations of selenium on Lake Onalaska, Wisconsin, whereas they probably accumulate the lowest concentrations in Iowa. Waterfowl biologists are searching for explanations to the scaup decline; we propose chromium and selenium concentrations in amphipods and fingernail clams may be a factor.

Using accelerometry to compare costs of extended migration in an arctic herbivore

Abstract Understanding how individuals manage costs during the migration period is challenging because individuals are difficult to follow between sites; the advent of hybrid Global Positioning System–acceleration (ACC) tracking devices enables researchers to link spatial and temporal attributes of avian migration with behavior for the first time ever. We fitted these devices on male Greenland white-fronted geese Anser albifrons flavirostris wintering at 2 sites (Loch Ken, Scotland and Wexford, Ireland) to understand whether birds migrating further during spring fed more on wintering and staging areas in advance of migration episodes. Although Irish birds flew significantly further (ca. 300 km) than Scottish birds during spring, their cumulative hours of migratory flight, flight speed during migration, and overall dynamic body ACC (i.e., a proxy for energy expenditure) were not significantly different. Further, Irish birds did not feed significantly more or expend significantly more energy in advance of migration episodes. These results suggest broad individual plasticity in this species, although Scottish birds arriving on breeding areas in Greenland with greater energy stores (because they migrated less) may be better prepared for food scarcity, which might increase their reproductive success.

Conditions during adulthood affect cohort-specific reproductive success in an Arctic-nesting goose population.

Variation in fitness between individuals in populations may be attributed to differing environmental conditions experienced among birth (or hatch) years (i.e., between cohorts). In this study, we tested whether cohort fitness could also be explained by environmental conditions experienced in years post-hatch, using 736 lifelong resighting histories of Greenland white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons flavirostris) marked in their first winter. Specifically, we tested whether variation in age at first successful reproduction, the size of the first successful brood and the proportion of successful breeders by cohort was explained by environmental conditions experienced on breeding areas in west Greenland during hatch year, those in adulthood prior to successful reproduction and those in the year of successful reproduction, using North Atlantic Oscillation indices as proxies for environmental conditions during these periods. Fifty-nine (8%) of all marked birds reproduced successfully (i.e., were observed on wintering areas with young) only once in their lifetime and 15 (2%) reproduced successfully twice or thrice. Variation in age at first successful reproduction was explained by the environmental conditions experienced during adulthood in the years prior to successful reproduction. Birds bred earliest (mean age 4) when environmental conditions were ‘good’ prior to the year of successful reproduction. Conversely, birds successfully reproduced at older ages (mean age 7) if they experienced adverse conditions prior to the year of successful reproduction. Hatch year conditions and an interaction between those experienced prior to and during the year of successful reproduction explained less (marginally significant) variation in age at first successful reproduction. Environmental conditions did not explain variation in the size of the first successful brood or the proportion of successful breeders. These findings show that conditions during adulthood prior to the year of successful reproduction are most important in determining the age at first successful reproduction in Greenland white-fronted geese. Very few birds bred successfully at all (most only once), which suggests that May environmental conditions on breeding areas have cohort effects that influence lifetime (and not just annual) reproductive success.

Occupancy surveys with conditional replicates: An alternative sampling design for rare species

Summary 1.Occupancy models are widely used to describe the distribution of rare and cryptic species— those that occur on only a small portion of the landscape and cannot be detected reliably during a single survey. However, model estimates of occupancy (ψ) and detection probabilities (p) are often least accurate under these circumstances. 2.Available sampling designs for occupancy surveys include standard design, wherein each of S sites is visited K times, and removal design, wherein S sites are visited K times each or until the species of interest is detected. We propose a new conditional design, wherein each of S sites is visited one time, and sites where the species of interest is encountered during the first survey are visited an additional (K−1) times to better estimate detection probability. We used large sample properties of maximum-likelihood estimators and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to characterize our proposed conditional design and compare it to standard and removal designs across a wide range of true occupancy and detection probabilities (ψ, p = 0.1 to 0.9 by 0.1 increments), maximum visits (K) and total sampling effort (E, the number of surveys accrued across all sites). 3.The conditional design provided more accurate estimates (lower standard or root mean squared error) of occupancy than standard or removal designs in our calculations and simulations when species were rare (ψ≤0.3) as well as more accurate estimates of detection probability over most combinations of ψ and p. These low-occupancy improvements are achieved by expending a greater proportion of effort at occupied sites, improving estimates of p and thus ψ. When species are common (ψ≥0.5) the removal design generally provided the most accurate occupancy estimates, whereas the standard design performed best when ψ was intermediate and during MCMC simulations when p and K were low. 4.We recommend the conditional design for surveys of rare species and pilot studies. For multi-species surveys that include mixtures of rare and common species, a hybrid standard-conditional design with 2-3 replicates at all sites and additional replicates at sites where rare species are detected improves occupancy estimates of rare species. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Sweep-Net Sampling Acorns in Forested Wetlands

Abstract We are unaware of any previous studies to evaluate using a sweep net to estimate abundance of red oak acorns (Quercus spp.) after they fall from tree crowns, sink to the ground in flooded bottomlands (i.e., sound acorns), and become potential food for animals or propagules for seedlings. We placed known numbers of white-painted red oak acorns of 3 size classes and used a sweep net to recover them in a flooded hardwood bottomland in Noxubee National Wildlife Refuge, Mississippi, USA. We recovered large acorns 1.96 and 1.32 times more often than small and medium acorns, respectively. Mean recovery rate of all marked acorns across size and density classes was 34.0 ± 7.0% (SE, n  =  9). Thus, sweep-net sampling for sound acorns in flooded oak bottomlands may yield negatively biased estimates of acorn abundance, and investigators should consider using correction factors.

Animal movement models for migratory individuals and groups

Animals often exhibit changes in their behavior during migration. Telemetry data provide a way to observe geographic position of animals over time, but not necessarily changes in the dynamics of the movement process. Continuous-time models allow for statistical predictions of the trajectory in the presence of measurement error and during periods when the telemetry device did not record the animals position. However, continuous-time models capable of mimicking realistic trajectories with sufficient detail are computationally challenging to fit to large data sets and basic models lack realism in their ability to capture nonstationary dynamics. We present a unified class of animal movement models that are computationally efficient and provide a suite of approaches for accommodating nonstationarity in continuous trajectories due to migration and interactions among individuals. We show how to nest convolution models to incorporate interactions among migrating individuals to account for nonstationarity and provide inference about dynamic migratory networks. We demonstrate these approaches in two case studies involving migratory birds. Specifically, we used process convolution models with temporal deformation to account for heterogeneity in individual greater white-fronted goose migrations in Europe and Iceland and we used nested process convolutions to model dynamic migratory networks in sandhill cranes in North America. The approach we present accounts for various forms of temporal heterogeneity in animal movement and is not limited to migratory applications. Furthermore, our models rely on well-established principles for modeling dependent data and leverage modern approaches for modeling dynamic networks to help explain animal movement and social interaction.

Erratum to: Integrated population models reveal local weather conditions are the key drivers of population dynamics in an aerial insectivore (Oecologia, (2017), 185, 1, (119-130), 10.1007/s00442-017-3890-8)

at all sites was stable over time and greatest in New York, whereas adult apparent survival was more variable among years and sites, and greatest in British Columbia and Saskatchewan. Fledging success was greatest in Saskatchewan. Local weather conditions explained significant variation in adult survival in Saskatchewan and fledging success in New York, corroborating the hypothesis that local more than continental weather drives the population dynamics of this species and, therefore, demographic synchrony measured at three sites was limited. Nonetheless, multi-population IPMs can be a powerful tool for identifying correlated population trajectories caused by synchronous demographic rates, and can pinpoint the scale at which environmental drivers are responsible for changes. We caution against applying uniform conservation actions for populations where synchrony does not occur or is not fully understood.

Full Simulation Data and Worked Examples from Specht et al. Conditional Occupancy Manuscript

To accompany publication of the conditional design for occupancy analysis, we provide the full simulation dataset used to compare the performance of standard, removal and conditional designs in common occupancy analysis programs: R package unmarked, Program MARK and PRESENCE. Specht_etal_AS3_CondOcc_SimulationCode.R is an R script that was used to generate the simulation data in AS4_Specht_etal_SimulationData.csv. AS4_Specht_etal_SimDataSet_metadata.csv contains variable labels for columns in AS4_Specht_etal_SimulationData.csv, including additional calculated variables not generated from the simulations. PRESENCE_files_for_Specht_etal.zip, ProgramMARK_files_for_Specht_etal.zip and Unmarked_example_for_Specht_etal.R provide files to work through examples of conditional, standard and removal occupancy designs for the same case in Program MARK, Program PRESENCE and R package unmarked, respectively. These files allow users to compare estimation by each method in a case where true occupancy probability is 0.2 and true detection probability is 0.5, and provide examples of formatted data input files. See Readme_Specht_etal.txt for more details.