Miyuki Breen

Predicting residential air exchange rates from questionnaires and meteorology: model evaluation in central North Carolina.

A critical aspect of air pollution exposure models is the estimation of the air exchange rate (AER) of individual homes, where people spend most of their time. The AER, which is the airflow into and out of a building, is a primary mechanism for entry of outdoor air pollutants and removal of indoor source emissions. The mechanistic Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) AER model was linked to a leakage area model to predict AER from questionnaires and meteorology. The LBL model was also extended to include natural ventilation (LBLX). Using literature-reported parameter values, AER predictions from LBL and LBLX models were compared to data from 642 daily AER measurements across 31 detached homes in central North Carolina, with corresponding questionnaires and meteorological observations. Data was collected on seven consecutive days during each of four consecutive seasons. For the individual model-predicted and measured AER, the median absolute difference was 43% (0.17 h−1) and 40% (0.17 h−1) for the LBL and LBLX models, respectively. Additionally, a literature-reported empirical scale factor (SF) AER model was evaluated, which showed a median absolute difference of 50% (0.25 h−1). The capability of the LBL, LBLX, and SF models could help reduce the AER uncertainty in air pollution exposure models used to develop exposure metrics for health studies.

Predicting chemical impacts on vertebrate endocrine systems

Animals have evolved diverse protective mechanisms for responding to toxic chemicals of both natural and anthropogenic origin. From a governmental regulatory perspective, these protective responses complicate efforts to establish acceptable levels of chemical exposure. To explore this issue, we considered vertebrate endocrine systems as potential targets for environmental contaminants. Using the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid (HPT), hypothalamic-pituitary-gonad (HPG), and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axes as case examples, we identified features of these systems that allow them to accommodate and recover from chemical insults. In doing so, a distinction was made between effects on adults and those on developing organisms. This distinction was required because endocrine system disruption in early life stages may alter development of organs and organ systems, resulting in permanent changes in phenotypic expression later in life. Risk assessments of chemicals that impact highly regulated systems must consider the dynamics of these systems in relation to complex environmental exposures. A largely unanswered question is whether successful accommodation to a toxic insult exerts a fitness cost on individual animals, resulting in adverse consequences for populations. Mechanistically based mathematical models of endocrine systems provide a means for better understanding accommodation and recovery. In the short term, these models can be used to design experiments and interpret study findings. Over the long term, a set of validated models could be used to extrapolate limited in vitro and in vivo testing data to a broader range of untested chemicals, species, and exposure scenarios. With appropriate modification, Tier 2 assays developed in support of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agencys Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program could be used to assess the potential for accommodation and recovery and inform the development of mechanistically based models.

Mechanistic Computational Model of Ovarian Steroidogenesis to Predict Biochemical Responses to Endocrine Active Compounds

Sex steroids, which have an important role in a wide range of physiological and pathological processes, are synthesized primarily in the gonads and adrenal glands through a series of enzyme-mediated reactions. The activity of steroidogenic enzymes can be altered by a variety of endocrine active compounds (EAC), some of which are therapeutics and others that are environmental contaminants. A steady-state computational model of the intraovarian metabolic network was developed to predict the synthesis and secretion of testosterone (T) and estradiol (E2), and their responses to EAC. Model predictions were compared to data from an in vitro steroidogenesis assay with ovary explants from a small fish model, the fathead minnow. Model parameters were estimated using an iterative optimization algorithm. Model-predicted concentrations of T and E2 closely correspond to the time–course data from baseline (control) experiments, and dose–response data from experiments with the EAC, fadrozole (FAD). A sensitivity analysis of the model parameters identified specific transport and metabolic processes that most influence the concentrations of T and E2, which included uptake of cholesterol into the ovary, secretion of androstenedione (AD) from the ovary, and conversions of AD to T, and AD to estrone (E1). The sensitivity analysis also indicated the E1 pathway as the preferred pathway for E2 synthesis, as compared to the T pathway. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of using the steroidogenesis model to predict T and E2 concentrations, in vitro, while reducing model complexity with a steady-state assumption. This capability could be useful for pharmaceutical development and environmental health assessments with EAC.

Developing Predictive Approaches to Characterize Adaptive Responses of the Reproductive Endocrine Axis to Aromatase Inhibition: I. Data Generation in a Small Fish Model

Adaptive or compensatory responses to chemical exposure can significantly influence in vivo concentration-duration-response relationships. This study provided data to support development of a computational dynamic model of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis of a model vertebrate and its response to aromatase inhibitors as a class of endocrine active chemicals. Fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) were either exposed to the aromatase inhibitor fadrozole (0.5 or 30 μg/l) continuously for 1, 8, 12, 16, 20, 24, or 28 days or exposed for 8 days and then held in control water (no fadrozole) for an additional 4, 8, 12, 16, or 20 days. The time course of effects on ovarian steroid production, circulating 17β-estradiol (E2) and vitellogenin (VTG) concentrations, and expression of steroidogenesis-related genes in the ovary was measured. Exposure to 30 μg fadrozole/l significantly reduced plasma E2 and VTG concentrations after just 1 day and those effects persisted throughout 28 days of exposure. In contrast, ex vivo E2 production was similar to that of controls on day 8-28 of exposure, whereas transcripts coding for aromatase and follicle-stimulating hormone receptor were elevated, suggesting a compensatory response. Following cessation of fadrozole exposure, ex vivo E2 and plasma E2 concentrations exceeded and then recovered to control levels, but plasma VTG concentrations did not, even after 20 days of depuration. Collectively these data provide several new insights into the nature and time course of adaptive responses to an aromatase inhibitor that support development of a computational model (see companion article).

Air Pollution Exposure Model for Individuals (EMI) in Health Studies: Evaluation for Ambient PM2.5 in Central North Carolina

Air pollution health studies of fine particulate matter (diameter ≤2.5 μm, PM2.5) often use outdoor concentrations as exposure surrogates. Failure to account for variability of indoor infiltration of ambient PM2.5 and time indoors can induce exposure errors. We developed and evaluated an exposure model for individuals (EMI), which predicts five tiers of individual-level exposure metrics for ambient PM2.5 using outdoor concentrations, questionnaires, weather, and time-location information. We linked a mechanistic air exchange rate (AER) model to a mass-balance PM2.5 infiltration model to predict residential AER (Tier 1), infiltration factors (Tier 2), indoor concentrations (Tier 3), personal exposure factors (Tier 4), and personal exposures (Tier 5) for ambient PM2.5. Using cross-validation, individual predictions were compared to 591 daily measurements from 31 homes (Tiers 1-3) and participants (Tiers 4-5) in central North Carolina. Median absolute differences were 39% (0.17 h(-1)) for Tier 1, 18% (0.10) for Tier 2, 20% (2.0 μg/m(3)) for Tier 3, 18% (0.10) for Tier 4, and 20% (1.8 μg/m(3)) for Tier 5. The capability of EMI could help reduce the uncertainty of ambient PM2.5 exposure metrics used in health studies.

Mechanistic Computational Model of Steroidogenesis in H295R Cells: Role of Oxysterols and Cell Proliferation to Improve Predictability of Biochemical Response to Endocrine Active Chemical—Metyrapone

The human adrenocortical carcinoma cell line H295R is being used as an in vitro steroidogenesis screening assay to assess the impact of endocrine active chemicals (EACs) capable of altering steroid biosynthesis. To enhance the interpretation and quantitative application of measurement data in risk assessments, we are developing a mechanistic computational model of adrenal steroidogenesis in H295R cells to predict the synthesis of steroids from cholesterol (CHOL) and their biochemical response to EACs. We previously developed a deterministic model that describes the biosynthetic pathways for the conversion of CHOL to steroids and the kinetics for enzyme inhibition by the EAC, metyrapone (MET). In this study, we extended our dynamic model by (1) including a cell proliferation model supported by additional experiments and (2) adding a pathway for the biosynthesis of oxysterols (OXY), which are endogenous products of CHOL not linked to steroidogenesis. The cell proliferation model predictions closely matched the time-course measurements of the number of viable H295R cells. The extended steroidogenesis model estimates closely correspond to the measured time-course concentrations of CHOL and 14 adrenal steroids both in the cells and in the medium and the calculated time-course concentrations of OXY from control and MET-exposed cells. Our study demonstrates the improvement of the extended, more biologically realistic model to predict CHOL and steroid concentrations in H295R cells and medium and their dynamic biochemical response to the EAC, MET. This mechanistic modeling capability could help define mechanisms of action for poorly characterized chemicals for predictive risk assessments.

Computational model of the fathead minnow hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis: Incorporating protein synthesis in improving predictability of responses to endocrine active chemicals.

There is international concern about chemicals that alter endocrine system function in humans and/or wildlife and subsequently cause adverse effects. We previously developed a mechanistic computational model of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis in female fathead minnows exposed to a model aromatase inhibitor, fadrozole (FAD), to predict dose-response and time-course behaviors for apical reproductive endpoints. Initial efforts to develop a computational model describing adaptive responses to endocrine stress providing good fits to empirical plasma 17β-estradiol (E2) data in exposed fish were only partially successful, which suggests that additional regulatory biology processes need to be considered. In this study, we addressed short-comings of the previous model by incorporating additional details concerning CYP19A (aromatase) protein synthesis. Predictions based on the revised model were evaluated using plasma E2 concentrations and ovarian cytochrome P450 (CYP) 19A aromatase mRNA data from two fathead minnow time-course experiments with FAD, as well as from a third 4-day study. The extended model provides better fits to measured E2 time-course concentrations, and the model accurately predicts CYP19A mRNA fold changes and plasma E2 dose-response from the 4-d concentration-response study. This study suggests that aromatase protein synthesis is an important process in the biological system to model the effects of FAD exposure.