Mobushir Riaz Khan

Early 21st century snow cover state over the western river basins of the Indus River system

In this paper we assess the snow cover and its dynamics for the western river basins of the Indus River system (IRS) and their sub-basins located in Afghanistan, China, India and Pakistan for the period 2001–2012. First, we validate the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily snow products from Terra (MOD10A1) and Aqua (MYD10A1) against the Landsat Thematic Mapper/Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (TM/ETM+) data set, and then improve them for clouds by applying a validated non-spectral cloud removal technique. The improved snow product has been analysed on a seasonal and annual basis against different topographic parameters (aspect, elevation and slope). Our results show a decreasing tendency for the annual average snow cover for the westerlies-influenced basins (upper Indus basin (UIB), Astore, Hunza, Shigar and Shyok) and an increasing tendency for the monsoon-influenced basins (Jhelum, Kabul, Swat and Gilgit). Seasonal average snow cover decreases during winter and autumn, and increases during spring and summer, which is consistent with the observed cooling and warming trends during the respective seasons. Sub-basins at relatively higher latitudes/altitudes show higher variability than basins at lower latitudes/middle altitudes. Northeastern and northwestern aspects feature greater snow cover. The mean end-of-summer regional snow line altitude (SLA) zones range from 3000 to 5000 m a.s.l. for all basins. Our analysis provides an indication of a descending end-of-summer regional SLA zone for most of the studied basins, which is significant for the Shyok and Kabul basins, thus indicating a change in their water resources. Such results are consistent with the observed hydro-climatic data, recently collected local perceptions and glacier mass balances for the investigated period within the UIB. Moreover, our analysis shows a significant correlation between winter season snow cover and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index of the previous autumn. Similarly, the inter-annual variability of spring season snow cover and spring season precipitation explains well the inter-annual variability of the summer season discharge from most of the basins. These findings indicate some potential for the seasonal stream flow forecast in the region, suggesting snow cover as a possible predictor.

Risk mapping of bovine hypodermosis using geographical information system (GIS) in cattle of subtropical region, Pakistan

INTRODUCTION Hypodermosis is an ectoparasitic disease of cattle caused by Hypoderma lineatum and Hypoderma bovis. It is an important health problem of cattle, leading to considerable economic losses. There are various factors that are involved in the spread of this disease such as herd size, location, temperature, humidity, and precipitation. METHODOLOGY Blood samples from 112 herds were collected to determine the presence of Hypoderma spp. infestation. For these herds, size and location were determined; temperature, humidity, and precipitation data were obtained from meteorological stations; and topographic features were obtained from existing maps and through field work. A regression analysis was then used to generate a risk factor analysis profile for hypodermosis and geographic information system (GIS) was used to map the risks. RESULTS The GIS map developed showed the degree of infestation in different geographical locations at district and village levels. Cluster analysis demonstrated that hypodermosis prevalence varied within zones and across zones. The regression analysis showed that the temperature in the months of January, February, March, August, and November, and the precipitation in September and October had significant results (p < 0.05) when all the risks factors were analyzed. CONCLUSIONS It is concluded that different ecological factors have an important impact on the intensity and infestation rate of hypodermosis across the globe. The present study might be used to control and eradicate the hypodermosis across the globe.

Population dynamics of citrus leaf miner on different varieties of citrus in correlation with abiotic environmental factors in Sargodha District, Punjab, Pakistan

From January 2010 to December 2011, samples of leaves from citrus varieties Kinnow, Musambi and Feutral were taken from the five tehsils (administrative subdivisions) of Sargodha District in Pakistan including Sargodha, Bahalwal, Silanwalli, Sahiwal and Kotmomin, to study the population trends in citrus leaf miner (CLM), Phyllocnistis citrella (Stainton) (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae), and its correlation with various environmental factors: (temperature, humidity and rainfall); plant morphological factors: moisture contents of leaves, leaf thickness, surface area (cm2), and biochemical percentage of calcium, potassium and magnesium in leaves. The maximum population of CLM was observed on Kinnow and Feutral, followed by Musambi. The effect of these factors on the larval population was 8.39- 2.30(Mg)+2.73(K)-0.398(Ca)-0.100(Temp)0.038(Humidity)+0.567(Rain)+0.07(Moist) 1.01 (Thickness)-0.022(Surface area). This equation revealed that magnesium, calcium, temperature, humidity, leaf thickness and leaf surface area are negatively correlated with larvae population, whereas potassium, rainfall and moisture are positively correlated with larvae population.

Impact of climate change on the precipitation pattern of district Sargodha, Pakistan

Purpose Spatio-temporal variations in precipitation pattern of district Sargodha is one of the most significant researchable questions because of the massive reliance on rainfall for agricultural practice in the study area. The pattern of current rainfall in the study area is unexpectedly changed. The purpose of the present study is to examine the changing precipitation pattern and to link it with climate change. Design/methodology/approach The study was conducted by using rainfall data of the past 30 years collected from 8 meteorological stations around the study area. The averages of rainfall on monthly basis were temporally arranged, and the fluctuation trends were studied using GIS and statistics. The temporal data of rainfall were compared and contrasted with the precipitation normals of the study area from 1981to 2010. The rainfall deviation in the present study was calculated. The spatial pattern of rainfall was plotted by interpolating the eight points of Punjab around the study area for the first two decades, whereas the past decade was analysed by incorporating five more points of Tehsils in the existing eight. The spatial and statistical representation of data were examined by compare and contrast with the previous findings. Findings The rainfall in the study area showed remarkable changes in magnitude and spatiality. The rainfall in the district is on the rise, whereas the spatial pattern of rainfall is becoming more complex and anomalous in character. This paper provides convincing evidence about the impact of climate change on the magnitude and spatial patterns of precipitation in the study area. Practical implications It will be helpful for understanding the shifts in the rainfall pattern in future as well as for the preparation of response to the issue of climate change and its impacts. Originality/value The current manuscript, for the very first time, provided detailed insights about the precipitation pattern shifting during the last 30 years in district Sargodha, Punjab, Pakistan. Furthermore, agricultural sector would likely get severally affected because of seasonal changes in climatic factors like rainfall and have strong food security implications. The current findings will be useful to manage the climate change-related issues in Pakistan and helpful for the policy makers to design a coping strategy for climate change impacts.

Seroprevalence and Spatial Distribution of Toxoplasmosis in Sheep and Goats in North-Eastern Region of Pakistan

Toxoplasmosis is a protozoan disease that is caused by Toxoplasma gondii in livestock and humans. Due to its medical and veterinary importance, it is essential to study the seroprevalence of T. gondii infection among humans and animals in various parts of the world. The major objective of this study was to determine the seroprevalence and spatial distribution of toxoplasmosis in small ruminants (sheep and goats) of north-eastern region, Pakistan. A total of 1,000 animals comprising of sheep (n=470) and goats (n=530) were examined for T. gondii infection by using ELISA. An epidemiological data was collected in the form of questionnaire. A surface has been generated by using method of interpolation in Arc GIS with the help of IDW (inverse distance weight). The results showed higher seroprevalence of T. gondii in goats (42.8%) as compared to sheep (26.2%). The seroprevalence was higher in females as compared to males in all examined ruminants. Similarly, there is a wide variation in the seroprevalence of T. gondii in different breeds of sheep and goats showing higher seroprevalence in Teddy (52.8%) and Damani breed (34.5%) of goat and sheep’s, respectively. The geographical and spatial distribution of T. gondii shows that it is widely distributed in different parts of the north-eastern region of Pakistan. Our results suggest widespread environmental contamination with T. gondii oocysts. It suggests us that small ruminants could be a potentially important source of T. gondii infection if their infected meat is consumed undercooked.

Occurence of hypodermosis in Pakistan, Iran and Turkey: comparative risk factor analysis and future perspectives

1 Department of Biosciences, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology (CIIT), Islamabad, Pakistan 2 Department of Chemistry, School of Science, University of Management and Technology (UMT), Lahore, Pakistan 3 Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Inonu, Malatya, Turkey 4 Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, University Institute of Information Technology,PMAS Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan 5 Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Firat, Elazig, Turkey

Newcastle disease as an emerging disease in peacocks of Tharparker, Pakistan

1 Department of Zoology,University of Sargodha,Sargodha, Pakistan 2 Department of Biosciences, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology (CIIT), Park Road, Chakh Shazad, Islamabad, Pakistan 3 Department of Botany,PMAS Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan 4 Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, PMAS Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan 5 Department of Zoology, PMASArid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan 6 Department of Wildlife and Ecology, University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences (UVAS), Lahore, Pakistan 7 Department of Microbiology, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan 8 Department of Chemistry, School of Science, University of Management and Technology (UMT), Lahore, Pakistan