Mohamed A. Kamal

Assessing Mathematical Models of Influenza Infections Using Features of the Immune Response

The role of the host immune response in determining the severity and duration of an influenza infection is still unclear. In order to identify severity factors and more accurately predict the course of an influenza infection within a human host, an understanding of the impact of host factors on the infection process is required. Despite the lack of sufficiently diverse experimental data describing the time course of the various immune response components, published mathematical models were constructed from limited human or animal data using various strategies and simplifying assumptions. To assess the validity of these models, we assemble previously published experimental data of the dynamics and role of cytotoxic T lymphocytes, antibodies, and interferon and determined qualitative key features of their effect that should be captured by mathematical models. We test these existing models by confronting them with experimental data and find that no single model agrees completely with the variety of influenza viral kinetics responses observed experimentally when various immune response components are suppressed. Our analysis highlights the strong and weak points of each mathematical model and highlights areas where additional experimental data could elucidate specific mechanisms, constrain model design, and complete our understanding of the immune response to influenza.

Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic Determinants of Oseltamivir Efficacy Using Data from Phase 2 Inoculation Studies

ABSTRACT Given the limited understanding about pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) determinants of oseltamivir efficacy, data from two phase 2 influenza virus inoculation studies were evaluated. Healthy volunteers in studies 1 and 2 were experimentally infected with influenza A/Texas (the concentration of neuraminidase inhibitor which reduced neuraminidase activity by 50% [IC50] = 0.18 nM) or B/Yamagata (IC50 = 16.76 nM), respectively. In study 1, 80 subjects received 20, 100, or 200 mg of oral oseltamivir twice daily (BID), 200 mg oseltamivir once daily, or placebo for 5 days. In study 2, 60 subjects received 75 or 150 mg of oral oseltamivir BID or placebo for 5 days. Oseltamivir carboxylate (OC) (active metabolite) PK was evaluated using individual PK data and a population PK model to derive individual values for area under the concentration-time curve from 0 to 24 h (AUC0–24), minimum concentration of OC in plasma (Cmin), and maximum concentration of OC in plasma (Cmax). Exposure-response relationships were evaluated for continuous (area under composite symptom score curve [AUCSC], area under the viral titer curve, and peak viral titer) and time-to-event (alleviation of composite symptom scores and cessation of viral shedding) efficacy endpoints. Univariable analyses suggested the existence of intuitive and highly statistically significant relationships between OC AUC0–24 evaluated as a 3-group variable and AUCSC, time to alleviation of composite symptom scores, and time to cessation of viral shedding. The upper OC AUC0–24 threshold (∼14,000 ng · h/ml) was similar among these endpoints. Multivariable analyses failed to demonstrate the influence of study/strain on efficacy endpoints. These results provide the first demonstration of exposure-response relationships for efficacy for oseltamivir against influenza and suggest that OC exposures beyond those achieved with the approved oseltamivir dosing regimen will provide enhanced efficacy. The clinical applicability of these observations requires further investigation.

Population Pharmacokinetics of Oseltamivir: Pediatrics through Geriatrics

ABSTRACT Oseltamivir is a potent inhibitor of influenza virus neuraminidase enzymes essential for viral replication. This study aimed to investigate the impact of covariates on pharmacokinetic (PK) variability of oseltamivir and its active metabolite form, oseltamivir carboxylate (OC). Dosing history, plasma drug concentrations, and demographic information were pooled from 13 clinical trials providing data for 390 healthy and infected subjects ranging in age from 1 to 78 years and given oseltamivir doses of 20 to 1,000 mg. Candidate population PK models simultaneously characterizing the time course of oseltamivir and OC in plasma were evaluated by using the NONMEM software program, and subject covariates were assessed using stepwise forward selection (α = 0.01) and backward elimination (α = 0.001). A two-compartment model with first-order absorption of oseltamivir and first-order conversion of oseltamivir to OC and a one-compartment model with first-order elimination of OC were utilized. Body weight when evaluated using a power function was a significant predictor of the apparent oseltamivir clearance and both apparent OC clearance (CLm/F) and central volume of distribution (Vcm/F). Creatinine clearance was a significant predictor of CLm/F, while Vcm/F also decreased linearly with age. A visual predictive check indicated that the final model described oseltamivir and OC concentrations in plasma adequately across dose regimens and subject covariate ranges. Concordance of population mean and individual post hoc predictions of maximum concentration of drug at steady state (Cmax) and area under the plasma drug concentration-time curve from 0 to 24 h at steady state (AUC0–24) was high (r2 = 0.81 and 0.71, respectively). In conclusion, a comprehensive population PK model was constructed to bridge the adult to pediatric oseltamivir PK data, allowing for reasonable estimation of the PK of OC using subject demographic data alone.

A drug-disease model describing the effect of oseltamivir neuraminidase inhibition on influenza virus progression.

ABSTRACT A population drug-disease model was developed to describe the time course of influenza virus with and without oseltamivir treatment and to investigate opportunities for antiviral combination therapy. Data included viral titers from 208 subjects, across 4 studies, receiving placebo and oseltamivir at 20 to 200 mg twice daily for 5 days. A 3-compartment mathematical model, comprising target cells infected at rate β, free virus produced at rate p and cleared at rate c, and infected cells cleared at rate δ, was implemented in NONMEM with an inhibitory Hill function on virus production (p), accounting for the oseltamivir effect. In congruence with clinical data, the model predicts that the standard 75-mg regimen initiated 2 days after infection decreased viral shedding duration by 1.5 days versus placebo; the 150-mg regimen decreased shedding by an additional average 0.25 day. The model also predicts that initiation of oseltamivir sooner postinfection, specifically at day 0.5 or 1, results in proportionally greater decreases in viral shedding duration of 5 and 3.5 days, respectively. Furthermore, the model suggests that combining oseltamivir (acting to subdue virus production rate) with an antiviral whose activity decreases viral infectivity (β) results in a moderate additive effect dependent on therapy initiation time. In contrast, the combination of oseltamivir with an antiviral whose activity increases viral clearance (c) shows significant additive effects independent of therapy initiation time. The utility of the model for investigating the pharmacodynamic effects of novel antivirals alone or in combination on emergent influenza virus strains warrants further investigation.

The posology of oseltamivir in infants with influenza infection using a population pharmacokinetic approach

Infants are at increased risk for morbidity and mortality due to influenza. Until recently, few data were available with which to optimize oseltamivir dosing in this high‐risk population. Here, data for 133 infants were pooled from two prospective pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic safety studies to develop a population pharmacokinetic model. A three‐compartment model with allometric scaling of all clearance and volume parameters described the disposition of oseltamivir and its carboxylate metabolite (OC). Weight dependence, OC clearance, and volume of distribution increased linearly with age. Analyses showed no association between OC exposure and viral clearance, the development of resistance (phenotypic/genotypic), normalization of body temperature, or safety endpoints. Pharmacokinetic bridging showed that a 3 mg/kg dose yielded acceptable OC exposure and good tolerability while minimizing the risk of underexposure and resistance/treatment failure. These pharmacological analyses formed the basis of the US Food and Drug Administrations recent approval of oseltamivir treatment for infants with influenza aged as young as 2 weeks.

Pharmacokinetics and safety of oseltamivir in patients with end‐stage renal disease treated with automated peritoneal dialysis

AIMS Patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) are at increased risk of developing complications associated with influenza infection. Oseltamivir is indicated for influenza treatment in ESRD patients, but the disposition is poorly understood in this patient population. This study aimed to characterize the pharmacokinetics and tolerability of oseltamivir in automated peritoneal dialysis (APD) and construct a pharmacokinetic model to assist with optimized dosing. METHODS Ten adults with ESRD were prescribed an aggressive APD regimen consisting of three continuous cycler-assisted peritoneal dialysis (CCPD) sessions during the day and two continuous ambulatory (CAPD) sessions overnight. Oseltamivir was administered as a single 75 mg dose, immediately before APD treatment. RESULTS Oseltamivir was rapidly eliminated via first-pass metabolism, with most of the dose (Fraction metabolized = 0.964) reaching the circulation as the active metabolite, oseltamivir carboxylate. This metabolite was cleared slowly and was quantifiable throughout the sampling interval. The disposition of oseltamivir and oseltamivir carboxylate was described by a two- and a one-compartment model, respectively. Metabolite clearance by CCPD [0.32 l h(-1)  (70 kg)(-1) ] was 1.9-fold faster than via CAPD [0.17 l h(-1)  (70 kg)(-1) ], with renal elimination being dominant in patients with residual urine production. Model simulations showed that a single 75 mg dose attained target exposures in patients with negligible or low urine clearance. However, higher doses are recommended for further investigation in patients with high residual renal function. In all patients, oseltamivir was well tolerated. CONCLUSIONS In APD patients with anuria or low residual renal elimination, a single 75 mg dose of oseltamivir produced exposures at the upper end of the safety margin.

Identification of new oral dosing regimens for the neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir in patients with moderate and severe renal impairment

Availability of lower‐dose oseltamivir capsules, an increased pharmacokinetic database, and a desire to align drug exposure across the spectrum of renal function prompted reassessment of oral dosing in patients with renal impairment. The data set comprised 128 subjects (71 with varying degrees of renal impairment) from 8 studies, which included single and multiple doses of 20–1000 mg. Pharmacokinetic profiles of oseltamivir phosphate (OP) and oseltamivir carboxylate (OC) were modeled simultaneously in NONMEM. Exposure metrics of OP and OC (AUC48 h, Cmax, Cmin) after administration of various dosing regimens were simulated for renal impairment subgroups and compared with exposures in patients with normal renal function receiving approved regimens. For influenza treatment, 30 mg once‐daily and twice‐daily regimens were selected for severe and moderate impairment, respectively. These regimens provided OC exposures similar or above those of the approved 75‐mg twice‐daily treatment regimen in subjects with normal renal function. For influenza prophylaxis, 30 mg once every other day and once‐daily regimens were selected for severe and moderate impairment, respectively. No dosing adjustments were required for mild impairment. This analysis supported revised labeling in the United States and Europe for oral oseltamivir dosing in patients with moderate and severe renal impairment.

Investigating Clinically Adequate Concentrations of Oseltamivir Carboxylate in End Stage Renal Disease Patients Undergoing Hemodialysis Using a Population Pharmacokinetic Approach

ABSTRACT End-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients receiving hemodialysis (HD) are at heightened risk for influenza, but the optimal oseltamivir dosage regimen for treating or preventing influenza in this high-risk population is still uncertain. Pharmacokinetic data for 24 adults with ESRD were pooled from a single-dose and a multiple-dose study to develop a population pharmacokinetic model using nonlinear mixed-effects modeling. The final model comprised five compartments, two each to describe the systemic pharmacokinetics of oseltamivir phosphate and its metabolite, oseltamivir carboxylate (OC), and a delay compartment to describe oseltamivir metabolism. Estimated OC clearance in the model was markedly faster during HD sessions (7.43 liters/min) than at other times (0.19 liter/min). Model simulations showed that 30 mg oseltamivir given after every HD session is the most suitable regimen for influenza treatment, producing trough OC concentrations above the median value achieved with the 75-mg twice-daily regimen in patients with normal renal function and peak concentrations below the highest oseltamivir exposures known to be well tolerated (median exposures after twice-daily dosing of 450 mg). Administration of the first dose following diagnosis of influenza need not wait until after the next HD session: addition of a single 30-mg dose during the 12 h before the next HD session raises OC exposures quickly without posing any safety risk. Further simulation showed that 30 mg oseltamivir given after every other HD session is the most suitable regimen for influenza prophylaxis.

Erratum for Kamal et al., A Drug-Disease Model Describing the Effect of Oseltamivir Neuraminidase Inhibition on Influenza Virus Progression.

Volume 59, no. 9, p. [5388–5395][1], 2015. Page 5391, Table 2: It was brought to our attention that there was an inadvertent error in reporting the residual error term (σerror, Table 2) in our model. The minor error is isolated and has no impact on the stated objectives of the paper, the

1715Oseltamivir use in an Influenza Outbreak: Linking Pharmacology to Pharmacoeconomics

Wu DBC1, Chaiyakunapruk N1,2,3,4, Pratoomsoot C5, Lee KKC1, Chong HY1, Nelson RE6, Smith PF7, Kirkpatrick C8, Kamal MA9, Nieforth K7, Dall G7, Toovey S10, Kong DCM8, Kamauu A11, Rayner CR7 1School of Pharmacy, Monash University, Sunway, Malaysia ,2 Center of Pharmaceutical Outcomes Research (CPOR), Department of Pharmacy Practice, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Naresuan University, Thailand, 3 School of Pharmacy, University of Wisconsin, Madison, USA, 4 School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia, 5Faculty of Public Health, Naresuan University, Thailand, 6University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, 7 d3 Medicine LLC, 8Monash University, Melbourne, Australia, 9Hoffman-La Roche, Inc., Nutley, NJ, 10Royal Free and University College Medical School, London, UK, 11Anolinx LLC, Salt Lake City