Mohamed Ali Marouani

More jobs for university graduates: some policy options for Tunisia

(english) The combination of demographic factors and an increase in education has caused a significant rise of university graduates’ unemployment in the MENA region. The article provides a prospective costeffectiveness analysis of the impact of alternative labor market policies using a dynamic general equilibrium model. The model allows for an endogenous determination of unemployment through a multisectoral efficiency wage setting mechanism. The main finding is that a wage subsidy targeted at highly skilled intensive sectors is more effective than tax reductions or investment subsidies. However, wage subsidies are not enough to reduce significantly unemployment. Other policy options need to be considered. _________________________________ (francais) La combinaison de facteurs demographiques et de progres dans l’education a entraine une hausse significative du chomage des diplomes dans la region MENA. L’article fournit une analyse de type cout-efficacite de politiques alternatives d’mploi a l’aide d’un modele d’equilibre general dynamique. Le modele permet une determination endogene du niveau de chomage a l’aide d’un modele multisectoriel de salaires d’efficience. Le principal resultat est qu’une subvention salariale ciblee sur les secteurs intensifs en main-d’oeuvre qualifiee est plus efficace que des reductions d’impots ou des subventions a l’investissement. Cependant ces subventions salariales ne sont pas suffisantes pour reduire significativement le niveau du chomage. D’autres options doivent etre considerees.

Migration and Employment Interactions in a Crisis Context

This article analyses how a crisis impacts labour markets in origin countries through migration channels. For this purpose, we develop a novel dynamic general equilibrium model with a focus on the interlinkages between migration, the labour market and education. The main innovation of the paper is the retrospective modelling in general equilibrium of the impact of an economic crisis to isolate the impact of migration on local unemployment. The impact of the crisis on education decision is captured through endogenous returns to education. The simultaneity of the crisis in Tunisia and its partners worsened the labour market situation mainly through the increase in labour supply. The main result of this study is that migration is indeed one of the main determinants of the unemployment increase and that remittances have a higher impact than the variation of emigration flows. The low skilled bear the highest costs in terms of unemployment and wage decline.