Mohamed S. Eid

Evolutionary Stable Strategy for Postdisaster Insurance: Game Theory Approach

AbstractMitigation of the financial impacts associated with natural disasters is becoming an urgent objective at both the national and international levels, as the rate and magnitude of natural disasters are continuing to increase. Using an evolutionary game theory approach, this paper aims to find an equilibrium profile of postdisaster insurance plans purchased by resident families and sold by insurance companies, as well as ex-postdisaster relief implemented by a government agency. This dynamic integrated assessment minimizes the total losses for the three aforementioned associated stakeholders, thus maximizing welfare within natural disaster host community systems. To this end, the authors determined a plausible set of actions and utility functions for the associated stakeholders. Also, they created a hypothetical sample of 1,000 resident families accounting for heterogeneous income levels, three insurance companies offering three unique insurance plans per company—each with different premium and cover...

Construction Bidding and the Winner’s Curse: Game Theory Approach

AbstractIn the construction industry, competitive bidding has long been used as a method for contractor selection. Because the true cost of construction is not known until the completion of the project, adverse selection is a major concern. Adverse selection is when the winner of the contract has underestimated the project’s true cost. Thus, the winning contractor will most likely earn negative or at least below normal profits. The winner’s curse is when the winning bidder submits an underestimated bid and is thus cursed by being selected to undertake the project. In the multistage bidding environment, where subcontractors are hired by a general contractor, the winner’s curse may be compounded. In general, contractors suffer from the winner’s curse for a variety of reasons including inaccurate estimates of project cost; new contractors entering the construction market; minimizing losses in case of recession of the construction industry; strong competition within the construction market; differential oppor...

Sustainable Disaster Recovery: Multiagent-Based Model for Integrating Environmental Vulnerability into Decision-Making Processes of the Associated Stakeholders

AbstractThe goal of sustainable disaster recovery is to regain the built environment’s functionality while decreasing the vulnerability of the society to future perturbations. This requires a new generation of decision support tools that integrate the host community’s vulnerability assessment while taking into account the stakeholders’ interactions, needs, and preferences. The available disaster recovery research focuses on the optimization and reconstruction of isolated projects rather than taking into account the host community’s overall vulnerability and welfare. Moreover, the available research did not simultaneously take into account the stakeholders’ preferences and needs. To this effect, this paper presents an agent-based model that integrates an environmental vulnerability indicator to better guide the decision-making process of the associated stakeholders. Such an approach will aid urban planners to redevelop societies into a more resilient status. This paper implements a five-step research metho...

Integrating the Social Vulnerability of Host Communities and the Objective Functions of Associated Stakeholders during Disaster Recovery Processes Using Agent-Based Modeling

AbstractDisaster recovery requires the participation of the stakeholders to repair the impacted community. Nevertheless, disaster recovery remains understudied within the context of emergency manag...

A Systems Approach for Sustainability Assessment of Civil Infrastructure Projects

It is necessary to develop standardized methods and metrics that effectively and efficiently study, measure, and analyze the wide range of impacts of the construction processes. The narrow focus of the currently available assessment methods does not adequately address the technical, environmental, economic, social/cultural, and individual sustainability indicators as well as the temporal, spatial and behavioral aspects of sustainability. This paper utilized a systems approach that is based on the three novel benchmarks - nature, work, and flow - that were previously proposed by the second author. “Work” defines the socio-behavioral relationships amongst the construction products and the actors of the built environment. “Nature” focuses on the effects of the built process on the environment through studying the interaction between the actors, processes, and the end-products within a host system. “Flow” identifies the changes within the community host systems and the effects of these changes on the natural and socio-economic settings. To this end, the authors applied this innovative framework to five different projects including highway, streets and drainage project, solar energy, wastewater treatment and vertical construction. Results indicate that the proposed systems approach provides an improved holistic understanding of the environmental, social, and economic effects of these projects.

Simultaneous multi-criteria optimization for scheduling linear infrastructure projects

Abstract This paper presents a simultaneous multi-criteria optimization approach for scheduling linear infrastructure projects. The proposed model provides planners with sets of non-dominated alternatives and their corresponding tradeoffs. The associated research methodology includes: (1) developing a resource driven scheduling module; (2) applying a multi-criteria optimization technique to optimize the multi-objective scheduling problem; (3) integrating the proposed model with a commercial project management software; and (4) applying the developed model on two literature-drawn case studies. The developed multi-criteria optimization approach utilizes Genetic Algorithms and Pareto Front sorting. The resulting sets of schedules are based on the multiple inter-conflicting objectives of simultaneously minimizing project duration, minimizing cost, minimizing interruptions, and minimizing unit delivery delays. The results indicate that the proposed approach can explore a greater range of solutions compared to existing models. The developed multi-criteria optimization approach can aid planners with proposing optimal set of schedules.

Multi-stage bidding for construction contracts : a game theory approach

In the construction industry, auctions have long been used as a method for allocating contracts. Not addressed in the literature (engineering or economics) is the fact that most, if not all, large jobs are awarded to a general contractor who in turn sub-contracts most, if not all, actual engineering services. Optimal bidding strategies in this setting require the general contractor to not only account for the optimal bidding strategies of rivals, but sub-contractors as well. Because the true cost of construction is not known until after the completion of the contract, adverse selection occurs when the winner of the contract is the one that most has under estimated the true cost. Due to the multi-stage bidding environment, adverse selection may be compounded. Therefore, not accounting for the potential for adverse selection by bidders may result in requested change orders by the general and sub-contractors or lower quality services. Either state ultimately results in an adversarial relationship between the subcontractor and general contractor, and the client as well. This paper uses game theory to determine to what extent the multi-stage aspects of large construction contract bidding may contribute to inefficient allocation of contracts. This should better help in creating an efficient and effective contracting environment that result in less conflicts, claims and disputes for all the associated stakeholders.

Optimizing Disaster Recovery Strategies Using Agent-Based Simulation

Mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery represent the four-phase methodology for emergency management. However, disaster recovery is considered the least understood aspect in the emergency management science and practice. Achieving a sustainable disaster recovery requires the participation of different stakeholders within the host community through the post-disaster planning and implementation phases. Despite the increasing rate and magnitude of natural hazards in the last decades, it is noted the lack of literature for holistic sustainable disaster recovery models that captures the associated stakeholders’ decisions and actions. To this end, this paper presents an agent-based model to study the disaster recovery strategies of the different associated stakeholders. The model demonstrates two main types of agents; (1) the residents of the impacted region along with their strategies for mitigating financial impacts and maximizing individual welfare, and (2) the government– state and regional—along with their strategies to mitigate the disasters impacts and to increase the host communities’ resilience to hazardous events. The authors used a comprehensive social vulnerability index to better guide the investment efforts at the various levels. Ultimately, the agent-based simulation model helps in better understanding the interrelationship between the different stakeholders, and consequently determining the optimum combination of disaster recovery strategies. The model is applied on three coastal counties in Mississippi to adopt more holistic sustainable disaster recovery processes after Hurricane Katrina.

The Potential of Construction Project Benchmarking in the Vicksburg District of the U.S Army Corps of Engineers

Construction projects are becoming plagued more than ever by conflicts, claims, and disputes. To this end, performance measurement has become a commonly used tool for evaluating processes, managing human resources, and formulating corrective strategies. One of the most important aspects of performance measurement is the ability to perform benchmarking. Using case studies of projects carried out by the U.S Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) in its Vicksburg District, this paper investigates how benchmarking can be potentially used to evaluate and measure performance of the associated contractors. The utilized methodology encompassed three interdependent steps where the authors: (1) collected project data for 40 contractors who performed work for USACE using internal file reviews; (2) defined the associated performance measures; (3) and analyzed the results to identify areas in which contractors needed to improve in order to increase efficiency. The authors identified five performance measures including quality control, timely performance, effectiveness of management, compliance with labor standards, and compliance with safety standards. These measures were applied on a five-point rating system and categorized using three characteristic groups including use of subcontractors, contract modifications, and final contract price. This research provides an opportunity to promote changes within the Vicksburg District based on knowing strengths and weaknesses.