Mohammad A. Safi

Mathematical analysis of a disease transmission model with quarantine, isolation and an imperfect vaccine

A new mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of a disease subject to the quarantine (of latent cases) and isolation (of symptomatic cases) and an imperfect vaccine is designed and analyzed. The model undergoes a backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the associated reproduction threshold is less than unity. It is shown that the backward bifurcation phenomenon can be removed if the vaccine is perfect or if mass action incidence, instead of standard incidence, is used in the model formulation. Further, the model has a unique endemic equilibrium when the threshold quantity exceeds unity. A nonlinear Lyapunov function, of the Goh-Volterra type, is used to show that the endemic equilibrium is globally-asymptotically stable for a special case. Numerical simulations of the model show that the singular use of a quarantine/isolation strategy may lead to the effective disease control (or elimination) if its effectiveness level is at least moderately high enough. The combined use of the quarantine/isolation strategy with a vaccination strategy will eliminate the disease, even for the low efficacy level of the universal strategy considered in this study. It is further shown that the imperfect vaccine could induce a positive or negative population-level impact depending on the size (or sign) of a certain associated epidemiological threshold.

The effect of incidence functions on the dynamics of a quarantine/isolation model with time delay

Abstract The problem of the asymptotic dynamics of a quarantine/isolation model with time delay is considered, subject to two incidence functions, namely standard incidence and the Holling type II (saturated) incidence function. Rigorous qualitative analysis of the model shows that it exhibits essentially the same (equilibrium) dynamics regardless of which of the two incidence functions is used. In particular, for each of the two incidence functions, the model has a globally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction threshold quantity is less than unity. Further, it has a unique endemic equilibrium when the threshold quantity exceeds unity. For the case with the Holling type II incidence function, it is shown that the unique endemic equilibrium of the model is globally asymptotically stable for a special case. The permanence of the disease is also established for the model with the Holling type II incidence function. Furthermore, it is shown that adding time delay to and/or replacing the standard incidence function with the Holling type II incidence function in the corresponding autonomous quarantine/isolation model with standard incidence (considered in Safi and Gumel (2010) [10]) does not alter the qualitative dynamics of the autonomous system (with respect to the elimination or persistence of the disease). Finally, numerical simulations of the model with standard incidence show that the disease burden decreases with increasing time delay (incubation period). Furthermore, models with time delay seem to be more suitable for modeling the 2003 SARS outbreaks than those without time delay.

Threshold dynamics of a non-autonomous SEIRS model with quarantine and isolation

A model for assessing the effect of periodic fluctuations on the transmission dynamics of a communicable disease, subject to quarantine (of asymptomatic cases) and isolation (of individuals with clinical symptoms of the disease), is considered. The model, which is of a form of a non-autonomous system of non-linear differential equations, is analysed qualitatively and numerically. It is shown that the disease-free solution is globally-asymptotically stable whenever the associated basic reproduction ratio of the model is less than unity, and the disease persists in the population when the reproduction ratio exceeds unity. This study shows that adding periodicity to the autonomous quarantine/isolation model developed in Safi and Gumel (Discret Contin Dyn Syst Ser B 14:209–231, 2010) does not alter the threshold dynamics of the autonomous system with respect to the elimination or persistence of the disease in the population.

Global Stability Analysis of SEIR Model with Holling Type II Incidence Function

A deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of a communicable disease is developed and rigorously analysed. The model, consisting of five mutually exclusive compartments representing the human dynamics, has a globally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium (DFE) whenever a certain epidemiological threshold, known as the basic reproduction number (ℛ 0), is less than unity; in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist. On the other hand, when the reproduction number is greater than unity, it is shown, using nonlinear Lyapunov function of Goh-Volterra type, in conjunction with the LaSalles invariance principle, that the unique endemic equilibrium of the model is globally asymptotically stable under certain conditions. Furthermore, the disease is shown to be uniformly persistent whenever ℛ 0 > 1.

Qualitative study of a quarantine/isolation model with multiple disease stages

Abstract Recent studies suggest that, for disease transmission models with latent and infectious periods, the use of gamma distribution assumption seems to provide a better fit for the associated epidemiological data in comparison to the use of exponential distribution assumption. The objective of this study is to carry out a rigorous mathematical analysis of a communicable disease transmission model with quarantine (of latent cases) and isolation (of symptomatic cases), in which the waiting periods in the infected classes are assumed to have gamma distributions. Rigorous analysis of the model reveals that it has a globally-asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium whenever its associated reproduction number is less than unity. The model has a unique endemic equilibrium when the threshold quantity exceeds unity. The endemic equilibrium is shown to be locally and globally-asymptotically stable for special cases. Numerical simulations, using data related to the 2003 SARS outbreaks, show that the cumulative number of disease-related mortality increases with increasing number of disease stages. Furthermore, the cumulative number of new cases is higher if the asymptomatic period is distributed such that most of the period is spent in the early stages of the asymptomatic compartments in comparison to the cases where the average time period is equally distributed among the associated stages or if most of the time period is spent in the later (final) stages of the asymptomatic compartments. Finally, it is shown that distributing the average sojourn time in the infectious (asymptomatic) classes equally or unequally does not effect the cumulative number of new cases.

Dynamics of a model with quarantine-adjusted incidence and quarantine of susceptible individuals

Abstract A new deterministic model for the spread of a communicable disease that is controllable using mass quarantine is designed. Unlike in the case of the vast majority of prior quarantine models in the literature, the new model includes a quarantine-adjusted incidence function for the infection rate and the quarantine of susceptible individuals suspected of being exposed to the disease (thereby making it more realistic epidemiologically). The earlier quarantine models tend to only explicitly consider individuals who are already infected, but show no clinical symptoms of the disease (i.e., those latently-infected), in the quarantine class (while ignoring the quarantine of susceptible individuals). In reality, however, the vast majority of people in quarantine (during a disease outbreak) are susceptible. Rigorous analysis of the model shows that the assumed imperfect nature of quarantine (in preventing the infection of quarantined susceptible individuals) induces the phenomenon of backward bifurcation when the associated reproduction threshold is less than unity (thereby making effective disease control difficult). For the case when the efficacy of quarantine to prevent infection during quarantine is perfect, the disease-free equilibrium is globally-asymptotically stable when the reproduction threshold is less than unity. Furthermore, the model has a unique endemic equilibrium when the reproduction threshold exceeds unity (and the disease persists in the population in this case).

Mathematical analysis of West Nile virus model with discrete delays

Abstract The paper presents the basic model for the transmission dynamics of West Nile virus (WNV). The model, which consists of seven mutually-exclusive compartments representing the birds and vector dynamics, has a locally-asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction number ( ℝ 0 ) is less than unity. As reveal in [3, 20], the analyses of the model show the existence of the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (where the stable disease-free equilibrium of the model co-exists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the reproduction number of the disease is less than unity). It is shown, that the backward bifurcation phenomenon can be removed by substituting the associated standard incidence function with a mass action incidence. Analysis of the reproduction number of the model shows that, the disease will persist, whenever ℝ 0 > 1, and increase in the length of incubation period can help reduce WNV burden in the community if a certain threshold quantities, denoted by Δ b and Δ v are negative. On the other hand, increasing the length of the incubation period increases disease burden if Δ b > 0 and Δ v > 0. Furthermore, it is shown that adding time delay to the corresponding autonomous model with standard incidence (considered in [2]) does not alter the qualitative dynamics of the autonomous system (with respect to the elimination or persistence of the disease).

Exogenous re-infection does not always cause backward bifurcation in TB transmission dynamics

Exogenous re-infection does not always cause backward bifurcation in TB transmission dynamics.Backward bifurcation in TB disease is more likely to occur if (a) the rates of re-infection and transmissibility of re-infected individuals are sufficiently high (b) the fraction of slow progressors is increased or if the rates of treatment and disease-induced mortality are increased.Backward bifurcation in TB disease is less likely to occur for increasing rate of endogenous re-activation of latent TB cases. Models for the transmission dynamics of mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB) that incorporate exogenous re-infection are known to induce the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, a dynamic phenomenon associated with the existence of two stable attractors when the reproduction number of the model is less than unity. This study shows, by way of a counter example, that exogenous re-infection does not always cause backward bifurcation in TB transmission dynamics. In particular, it is shown that it is the transmission ability of the re-infected individuals, and not just the re-infection process, that causes the backward bifurcation phenomenon. When re-infected individuals do not transmit infection, the disease-free equilibrium of the model is shown to be globally-asymptotically stable (GAS) when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. The model has a unique endemic equilibrium whenever the reproduction threshold exceeds unity. It is shown, using a Lyapunov function, that the unique endemic equilibrium is GAS for the special case with no disease-induced mortality and no transmission by re-infected individuals. It is further shown that even if re-infected individuals do transmit infection, backward bifurcation only occurs if their transmissibility exceeds a certain threshold. Sensitivity analyses, with respect to the derived backward bifurcation threshold, show that the phenomenon of backward bifurcation is more likely to occur if the rates of re-infection and transmissibility of re-infected individuals are sufficiently high. Furthermore, it is likely to occur if the fraction of slow progressors (to active TB) is increased or if the rates of treatment (of symptomatic cases) and disease-induced mortality are increased. On the other hand, backward bifurcation is less likely to occur for increasing rates of endogenous re-activation of latent TB cases.