Mohammad Ali

Updated global burden of cholera in endemic countries

Background The global burden of cholera is largely unknown because the majority of cases are not reported. The low reporting can be attributed to limited capacity of epidemiological surveillance and laboratories, as well as social, political, and economic disincentives for reporting. We previously estimated 2.8 million cases and 91,000 deaths annually due to cholera in 51 endemic countries. A major limitation in our previous estimate was that the endemic and non-endemic countries were defined based on the countries’ reported cholera cases. We overcame the limitation with the use of a spatial modelling technique in defining endemic countries, and accordingly updated the estimates of the global burden of cholera. Methods/Principal Findings Countries were classified as cholera endemic, cholera non-endemic, or cholera-free based on whether a spatial regression model predicted an incidence rate over a certain threshold in at least three of five years (2008-2012). The at-risk populations were calculated for each country based on the percent of the country without sustainable access to improved sanitation facilities. Incidence rates from population-based published studies were used to calculate the estimated annual number of cases in endemic countries. The number of annual cholera deaths was calculated using inverse variance-weighted average case-fatality rate (CFRs) from literature-based CFR estimates. We found that approximately 1.3 billion people are at risk for cholera in endemic countries. An estimated 2.86 million cholera cases (uncertainty range: 1.3m-4.0m) occur annually in endemic countries. Among these cases, there are an estimated 95,000 deaths (uncertainty range: 21,000-143,000). Conclusion/Significance The global burden of cholera remains high. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for the majority of this burden. Our findings can inform programmatic decision-making for cholera control.

Efficacy of a Single-Dose, Inactivated Oral Cholera Vaccine in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND A single-dose regimen of the current killed oral cholera vaccines that have been prequalified by the World Health Organization would make them more attractive for use against endemic and epidemic cholera. We conducted an efficacy trial of a single dose of the killed oral cholera vaccine Shanchol, which is currently given in a two-dose schedule, in an urban area in which cholera is highly endemic. METHODS Nonpregnant residents of Dhaka, Bangladesh, who were 1 year of age or older were randomly assigned to receive a single dose of oral cholera vaccine or oral placebo. The primary outcome was vaccine protective efficacy against culture-confirmed cholera occurring 7 to 180 days after dosing. Prespecified secondary outcomes included protective efficacy against severely dehydrating culture-confirmed cholera during the same interval, against cholera and severe cholera occurring 7 to 90 versus 91 to 180 days after dosing, and against cholera and severe cholera according to age at baseline. RESULTS A total of 101 episodes of cholera, 37 associated with severe dehydration, were detected among the 204,700 persons who received one dose of vaccine or placebo. The vaccine protective efficacy was 40% (95% confidence interval [CI], 11 to 60%; 0.37 cases per 1000 vaccine recipients vs. 0.62 cases per 1000 placebo recipients) against all cholera episodes, 63% (95% CI, 24 to 82%; 0.10 vs. 0.26 cases per 1000 recipients) against severely dehydrating cholera episodes, and 63% (95% CI, -39 to 90%), 56% (95% CI, 16 to 77%), and 16% (95% CI, -49% to 53%) against all cholera episodes among persons vaccinated at the age of 5 to 14 years, 15 or more years, and 1 to 4 years, respectively, although the differences according to age were not significant (P=0.25). Adverse events occurred at similar frequencies in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS A single dose of the oral cholera vaccine was efficacious in older children (≥5 years of age) and in adults in a setting with a high level of cholera endemicity. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02027207.).

Feasibility and effectiveness of oral cholera vaccine in an urban endemic setting in Bangladesh: a cluster randomised open-label trial

BACKGROUND Cholera is endemic in Bangladesh with epidemics occurring each year. The decision to use a cheap oral killed whole-cell cholera vaccine to control the disease depends on the feasibility and effectiveness of vaccination when delivered in a public health setting. We therefore assessed the feasibility and protective effect of delivering such a vaccine through routine government services in urban Bangladesh and evaluated the benefit of adding behavioural interventions to encourage safe drinking water and hand washing to vaccination in this setting. METHODS We did this cluster-randomised open-label trial in Dhaka, Bangladesh. We randomly assigned 90 clusters (1:1:1) to vaccination only, vaccination and behavioural change, or no intervention. The primary outcome was overall protective effectiveness, assessed as the risk of severely dehydrating cholera during 2 years after vaccination for all individuals present at time of the second dose. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01339845. FINDINGS Of 268,896 people present at baseline, we analysed 267,270: 94,675 assigned to vaccination only, 92,539 assigned to vaccination and behavioural change, and 80,056 assigned to non-intervention. Vaccine coverage was 65% in the vaccination only group and 66% in the vaccination and behavioural change group. Overall protective effectiveness was 37% (95% CI lower bound 18%; p=0·002) in the vaccination group and 45% (95% CI lower bound 24%; p=0·001) in the vaccination and behavioural change group. We recorded no vaccine-related serious adverse events. INTERPRETATION Our findings provide the first indication of the effect of delivering an oral killed whole-cell cholera vaccine to poor urban populations with endemic cholera using routine government services and will help policy makers to formulate vaccination strategies to reduce the burden of severely dehydrating cholera in such populations. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Incidence of invasive salmonella disease in sub-Saharan Africa: a multicentre population-based surveillance study

Summary Background Available incidence data for invasive salmonella disease in sub-Saharan Africa are scarce. Standardised, multicountry data are required to better understand the nature and burden of disease in Africa. We aimed to measure the adjusted incidence estimates of typhoid fever and invasive non-typhoidal salmonella (iNTS) disease in sub-Saharan Africa, and the antimicrobial susceptibility profiles of the causative agents. Methods We established a systematic, standardised surveillance of blood culture-based febrile illness in 13 African sentinel sites with previous reports of typhoid fever: Burkina Faso (two sites), Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Madagascar (two sites), Senegal, South Africa, Sudan, and Tanzania (two sites). We used census data and health-care records to define study catchment areas and populations. Eligible participants were either inpatients or outpatients who resided within the catchment area and presented with tympanic (≥38·0°C) or axillary temperature (≥37·5°C). Inpatients with a reported history of fever for 72 h or longer were excluded. We also implemented a health-care utilisation survey in a sample of households randomly selected from each study area to investigate health-seeking behaviour in cases of self-reported fever lasting less than 3 days. Typhoid fever and iNTS disease incidences were corrected for health-care-seeking behaviour and recruitment. Findings Between March 1, 2010, and Jan 31, 2014, 135 Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi (S Typhi) and 94 iNTS isolates were cultured from the blood of 13 431 febrile patients. Salmonella spp accounted for 33% or more of all bacterial pathogens at nine sites. The adjusted incidence rate (AIR) of S Typhi per 100 000 person-years of observation ranged from 0 (95% CI 0–0) in Sudan to 383 (274–535) at one site in Burkina Faso; the AIR of iNTS ranged from 0 in Sudan, Ethiopia, Madagascar (Isotry site), and South Africa to 237 (178–316) at the second site in Burkina Faso. The AIR of iNTS and typhoid fever in individuals younger than 15 years old was typically higher than in those aged 15 years or older. Multidrug-resistant S Typhi was isolated in Ghana, Kenya, and Tanzania (both sites combined), and multidrug-resistant iNTS was isolated in Burkina Faso (both sites combined), Ghana, Kenya, and Guinea-Bissau. Interpretation Typhoid fever and iNTS disease are major causes of invasive bacterial febrile illness in the sampled locations, most commonly affecting children in both low and high population density settings. The development of iNTS vaccines and the introduction of S Typhi conjugate vaccines should be considered for high-incidence settings, such as those identified in this study. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Post-licensure deployment of oral cholera vaccines: a systematic review

Abstract Objective To describe and analyse the characteristics of oral cholera vaccination campaigns; including location, target population, logistics, vaccine coverage and delivery costs. Methods We searched PubMed, the World Health Organization (WHO) website and the Cochrane database with no date or language restrictions. We contacted public health personnel, experts in the field and in ministries of health and did targeted web searches. Findings A total of 33 documents were included in the analysis. One country, Viet Nam, incorporates oral cholera vaccination into its public health programme and has administered approximately 10.9 million vaccine doses between 1997 and 2012. In addition, over 3 million doses of the two WHO pre-qualified oral cholera vaccines have been administered in more than 16 campaigns around the world between 1997 and 2014. These campaigns have either been pre-emptive or reactive and have taken place under diverse conditions, such as in refugee camps or natural disasters. Estimated two-dose coverage ranged from 46 to 88% of the target population. Approximate delivery cost per fully immunized person ranged from 0.11–3.99 United States dollars. Conclusion Experience with oral cholera vaccination campaigns continues to increase. Public health officials may draw on this experience and conduct oral cholera vaccination campaigns more frequently.

The Typhoid Fever Surveillance in Africa Program (TSAP): Clinical, Diagnostic, and Epidemiological Methodologies.

BACKGROUND New immunization programs are dependent on data from surveillance networks and disease burden estimates to prioritize target areas and risk groups. Data regarding invasive Salmonella disease in sub-Saharan Africa are currently limited, thus hindering the implementation of preventive measures. The Typhoid Fever Surveillance in Africa Program (TSAP) was established by the International Vaccine Institute to obtain comparable incidence data on typhoid fever and invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) disease in sub-Saharan Africa through standardized surveillance in multiple countries. METHODS Standardized procedures were developed and deployed across sites for study site selection, patient enrolment, laboratory procedures, quality control and quality assurance, assessment of healthcare utilization and incidence calculations. RESULTS Passive surveillance for bloodstream infections among febrile patients was initiated at thirteen sentinel sites in ten countries (Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Madagascar, Senegal, South Africa, Sudan, and Tanzania). Each TSAP site conducted case detection using these standardized methods to isolate and identify aerobic bacteria from the bloodstream of febrile patients. Healthcare utilization surveys were conducted to adjust population denominators in incidence calculations for differing healthcare utilization patterns and improve comparability of incidence rates across sites. CONCLUSIONS By providing standardized data on the incidence of typhoid fever and iNTS disease in sub-Saharan Africa, TSAP will provide vital input for targeted typhoid fever prevention programs.

Protection against cholera from killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccines: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Summary Background Killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccines (kOCVs) are becoming a standard cholera control and prevention tool. However, vaccine efficacy and direct effectiveness estimates have varied, with differences in study design, location, follow-up duration, and vaccine composition posing challenges for public health decision making. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to generate average estimates of kOCV efficacy and direct effectiveness from the available literature. Methods For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and the Cochrane Review Library on July 9, 2016, and ISI Web of Science on July 11, 2016, for randomised controlled trials and observational studies that reported estimates of direct protection against medically attended confirmed cholera conferred by kOCVs. We included studies published on any date in English, Spanish, French, or Chinese. We extracted from the published reports the primary efficacy and effectiveness estimates from each study and also estimates according to number of vaccine doses, duration, and age group. The main study outcome was average efficacy and direct effectiveness of two kOCV doses, which we estimated with random-effect models. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016048232. Findings Seven trials (with 695 patients with cholera) and six observational studies (217 patients with cholera) met the inclusion criteria, with an average two-dose efficacy of 58% (95% CI 42–69, I2=58%) and effectiveness of 76% (62–85, I2=0). Average two-dose efficacy in children younger than 5 years (30% [95% CI 15–42], I2=0%) was lower than in those 5 years or older (64% [58–70], I2=0%; p<0·0001). Two-dose efficacy estimates of kOCV were similar during the first 2 years after vaccination, with estimates of 56% (95% CI 42–66, I2=45%) in the first year and 59% (49–67, I2=0) in the second year. The efficacy reduced to 39% (13 to 57, I2=48%) in the third year, and 26% (−46 to 63, I2=74%) in the fourth year. Interpretation Two kOCV doses provide protection against cholera for at least 3 years. One kOCV dose provides at least short-term protection, which has important implications for outbreak management. kOCVs are effective tools for cholera control. Funding The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Diarrheal Illness and Healthcare Seeking Behavior among a Population at High Risk for Diarrhea in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Diarrhea remains one of the major causes of death in Bangladesh. We studied diarrheal disease risk and healthcare seeking behavior among populations at high risk for diarrhea in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Data were obtained from a cross-sectional survey conducted during April and September 2010. The prevalence of diarrhea was calculated by age-group and sex. A generalized estimating equation with logit link function was used to predict diarrheal disease risk and seeking care from a professional healthcare provider. Of 316,766 individuals, 10% were young children (<5 years). The prevalence of diarrhea was 16 per 1000 persons among all ages; young children accounted for 44 per 1000 persons. Prevalence of diarrhea was significantly higher (p=.003) among younger males (<15 years) compared to that among younger females. In contrast, prevalence of diarrhea was significantly higher (p<.0001) among older females (≥15 years) compared to that among older males. An increased risk for diarrhea was observed in young children, males, and those staying in rented houses, lower family members in the house, using non-sanitary toilets, living in the area for short times, living in a community with less educated persons, living in a community with less use of safe water source for drinking, or living close to the hospital. About 80% of those with diarrhea sought care initially from a non-professional healthcare provider. Choice of the professional healthcare provider was driven by age of the patient, educational status of the household head, and hygienic practices by the household. The study reaffirms that young children are at greater risk for diarrhea. Like other developing countries most people in this impoverished setting of Dhaka are less likely to seek care from a professional healthcare provider than from a non-professional healthcare provider, which could be attributed to a higher number of diarrheal deaths among young children in Bangladesh. Dissemination of information on health education, increasing the supply of skilled healthcare providers, and low-cost and quality healthcare services may encourage more people to seek care from professional healthcare providers, thus may help reduce child mortality in the country. Further studies are warranted to validate the results.

Assessing effects of cholera vaccination in the presence of interference.

Interference occurs when the treatment of one person affects the outcome of another. For example, in infectious diseases, whether one individual is vaccinated may affect whether another individual becomes infected or develops disease. Quantifying such indirect (or spillover) effects of vaccination could have important public health or policy implications. In this article we use recently developed inverse-probability weighted (IPW) estimators of treatment effects in the presence of interference to analyze an individually-randomized, placebo-controlled trial of cholera vaccination that targeted 121,982 individuals in Matlab, Bangladesh. Because these IPW estimators have not been employed previously, a simulation study was also conducted to assess the empirical behavior of the estimators in settings similar to the cholera vaccine trial. Simulation study results demonstrate the IPW estimators can yield unbiased estimates of the direct, indirect, total, and overall effects of vaccination when there is interference provided the untestable no unmeasured confounders assumption holds and the group-level propensity score model is correctly specified. Application of the IPW estimators to the cholera vaccine trial indicates the presence of interference. For example, the IPW estimates suggest on average 5.29 fewer cases of cholera per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval 2.61, 7.96) will occur among unvaccinated individuals within neighborhoods with 60% vaccine coverage compared to neighborhoods with 32% coverage. Our analysis also demonstrates how not accounting for interference can render misleading conclusions about the public health utility of vaccination.

The Relationship Between Invasive Nontyphoidal Salmonella Disease, Other Bacterial Bloodstream Infections, and Malaria in Sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND Country-specific studies in Africa have indicated that Plasmodium falciparum is associated with invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) disease. We conducted a multicenter study in 13 sites in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Madagascar, Senegal, South Africa, Sudan, and Tanzania to investigate the relationship between the occurrence of iNTS disease, other systemic bacterial infections, and malaria. METHODS Febrile patients received a blood culture and a malaria test. Isolated bacteria underwent antimicrobial susceptibility testing, and the association between iNTS disease and malaria was assessed. RESULTS A positive correlation between frequency proportions of malaria and iNTS was observed (P = .01; r = 0.70). Areas with higher burden of malaria exhibited higher odds of iNTS disease compared to other bacterial infections (odds ratio [OR], 4.89; 95% CI, 1.61-14.90; P = .005) than areas with lower malaria burden. Malaria parasite positivity was associated with iNTS disease (OR, 2.44; P = .031) and gram-positive bacteremias, particularly Staphylococcus aureus, exhibited a high proportion of coinfection with Plasmodium malaria. Salmonella Typhimurium and Salmonella Enteritidis were the predominant NTS serovars (53/73; 73%). Both moderate (OR, 6.05; P = .0001) and severe (OR, 14.62; P < .0001) anemia were associated with iNTS disease. CONCLUSIONS A positive correlation between iNTS disease and malaria endemicity, and the association between Plasmodium parasite positivity and iNTS disease across sub-Saharan Africa, indicates the necessity to consider iNTS as a major cause of febrile illness in malaria-holoendemic areas. Prevention of iNTS disease through iNTS vaccines for areas of high malaria endemicity, targeting high-risk groups for Plasmodium parasitic infection, should be considered.