Mohammad Karamouz

Development of a master plan for water pollution control using MCDM techniques: A case study

Abstract Excessive demand for water due to a growing population, agricultural, and industrial development, along with climate change and depletion of nonrenewable resources have intensified the need for integrated water resources management and water pollution control. This paper presents different aspects of a master plan for water pollution control and the results of a case study for developing a master plan for water resources pollution control in Isfahan Province in Iran. Different components of the water resources system and pollution sources in the study area were identified and the effects of each of the pollution sources on surface and groundwater resources contamination were investigated. Two Multiple Criterion Decision Making (MCDM) techniques, namely Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) method and Analytical Hierarchy Structure (AHP) were used in order to determine the share of agricultural, industrial, and domestic sectors in polluting the water resources. In the application of MCDM techniques, engineering judgments and the information gathered from brain storming sessions with engineering experts and the agencies officials have also been incorporated in order to overcome the data deficiency in this region for this type of analysis. Based on this study, several specific major categories of water pollution reduction projects were defined and in each category, several projects were identified. The total cost of implementation of the projects was also estimated and the projects were prioritized based on their potential impact on water pollution control.

Hydrology and Hydroclimatology : Principles and Applications

Introduction Introduction Systems Approach Hydrologic Cycle Hydrologic Variability Disposition of Energy and Matters Representations, Statistical and Simulation Models Extreme Values, Vulnerability, Risk and Uncertainty Water Availability Water Sustainability Tools and Techniques Peoples Perception- Public Awareness Integrated Water Cycle Management Economics of Water Water Supply vs. Water Demand Clean Water Act Overall Organization of This Book Problems References Hydroclimatic Systems Introduction General Systems Characteristics Systems Modeling The Earth System The Atmosphere The Lithosphere The Biosphere The Hydrosphere Hydrologic Cycle The Catchment Basin System Groundwater System Concluding Remarks Problems References Hydro-Climaticprocesses Introduction Atmosphere characteristics Physical Behavior of the Atmosphere Heat and Temperature Relationship Measures of Water Vapor in the Atmosphere Clouds and Precipitation Formation Climate Variability Case Studies Conclusion Problems References Hydrologic Cycle Analysis Introduction Precipitation Evaporation and Evapotranspiration Interception Storage and Depression Storage Infiltration Calculation of Excess Rainfall-Runoff Groundwater Reservoirs and Lakes Water balance Regionalizing the Hydrologic Data Using Kriging Method Summary Problems References Watershed Definition Watershed Geomorphology Hypsometric Curve Characteristics of Soil Channel Geomorphology Travel Time Land Use and Cover Impacts Concluding Remarks Problems References Surface Water Hydrology Introduction Estimation of Runoff Volume Hydrograph Theory Baseflow Estimation Unit Hydrograph Different Types of Unit Hydrographs Unit Hydrograph Adjustments Instantaneous Unit Hydrographs (IUH) Routing Methods Hydrologic Reservoir Routing Estuaries Water Quality Issues in Surface Water Problems References Appendix Groundwater Hydrology Introduction Groundwater Systems Groundwater Availability Groundwater Development Types of Aquifers Aquifer Characteristics Groundwater Balance Groundwater Movement Homogeneous and Isotropic Systems Transmissivity Dupuit- Forchheimer Theory of Free-Surface Flow Flow nets Wells Multiple-Well Systems Effective Conditions on Time-Drawdown Data Interaction between Surface and Groundwater Concluding Remarks Problems References Time Series Analysis Introduction Stochastic Processes Time Series Hydrological Time Series Hydrologic Time Series Modeling: Basic Steps Data Preparation Time Series Modeling in Hydrology Methods of Parameter Estimation Regression Based Methods Goodness of Fit Tests Spectral Analysis Based Methods Concluding Remarks Problems References Appendix Climate Change Impacts And Models Introduction The Greenhouse Effect The Carbon Cycle Climate Change Impact on Hydrologic Cycle Water Resource System Effects Climate Change Simulation Case Studies Problems References Probability, Risk and Uncertainty In Hydrologic Analysis Introduction Probability treatment of hydrologic data Common probabilistic models Return period or recurrence interval Reliability Risk Vulnerability Resiliency Uncertainty Problems References Appendix Hydrologic Simulation Introduction Mathematical Simulation Techniques Physical Models Simulation Problems References Drought Analysis and Management Introduction Drought as a Hazard Drought Definition Climatic Drought Hydrologic Drought Agricultural Drought Hybrid Drought Index Geostatistic Tools in Drought Studies Drought Preparedness/Management Problems References Flood Introduction Flood Types Flood Analysis Flood Prediction Flood Routing Urban Floods Understanding Flood Hazards Evacuation Zones Flood Damage Resiliency Floodplain Management Case Studies Problems References Introduction Introduction Systems Approach Hydrologic Cycle Hydrologic Variability Disposition of Energy and Matters Representations, Statistical and Simulation Models Extreme Values, Vulnerability, Risk and Uncertainty Water Availability Water Sustainability Tools and Techniques Peoples Perception- Public Awareness Integrated Water Cycle Management Economics of Water Water Supply vs. Water Demand Clean Water Act Overall Organization of This Book Problems References Hydroclimatic Systems Introduction General Systems Characteristics Systems Modeling The Earth System The Atmosphere The Lithosphere The Biosphere The Hydrosphere Hydrologic Cycle The Catchment Basin System Groundwater System Concluding Remarks Problems References Hydro-Climaticprocesses Introduction Atmosphere characteristics Physical Behavior of the Atmosphere Heat and Temperature Relationship Measures of Water Vapor in the Atmosphere Clouds and Precipitation Formation Climate Variability Case Studies Conclusion Problems References Hydrologic Cycle Analysis Introduction Precipitation Evaporation and Evapotranspiration Interception Storage and Depression Storage Infiltration Calculation of Excess Rainfall-Runoff Groundwater Reservoirs and Lakes Water balance Regionalizing the Hydrologic Data Using Kriging Method Summary Problems References Watershed Definition Watershed Geomorphology Hypsometric Curve Characteristics of Soil Channel Geomorphology Travel Time Land Use and Cover Impacts Concluding Remarks Problems References Surface Water Hydrology Introduction Estimation of Runoff Volume Hydrograph Theory Baseflow Estimation Unit Hydrograph Different Types of Unit Hydrographs Unit Hydrograph Adjustments Instantaneous Unit Hydrographs (IUH) Routing Methods Hydrologic Reservoir Routing Estuaries Water Quality Issues in Surface Water Problems References Appendix Groundwater Hydrology Introduction Groundwater Systems Groundwater Availability Groundwater Development Types of Aquifers Aquifer Characteristics Groundwater Balance Groundwater Movement Homogeneous and Isotropic Systems Transmissivity Dupuit- Forchheimer Theory of Free-Surface Flow Flow nets Wells Multiple-Well Systems Effective Conditions on Time-Drawdown Data Interaction between Surface and Groundwater Concluding Remarks Problems References Time Series Analysis Introduction Stochastic Processes Time Series Hydrological Time Series Hydrologic Time Series Modeling: Basic Steps Data Preparation Time Series Modeling in Hydrology Methods of Parameter Estimation Regression Based Methods Goodness of Fit Tests Spectral Analysis Based Methods Concluding Remarks Problems References Appendix Climate Change Impacts And Models Introduction The Greenhouse Effect The Carbon Cycle Climate Change Impact on Hydrologic Cycle Water Resource System Effects Climate Change Simulation Case Studies Problems References Probability, Risk and Uncertainty In Hydrologic Analysis Introduction Probability treatment of hydrologic data Common probabilistic models Return period or recurrence interval Reliability Risk Vulnerability Resiliency Uncertainty Problems References Appendix Hydrologic Simulation Introduction Mathematical Simulation Techniques Physical Models Simulation Problems References Drought Analysis and Management Introduction Drought as a Hazard Drought Definition Climatic Drought Hydrologic Drought Agricultural Drought Hybrid Drought Index Geostatistic Tools in Drought Studies Drought Preparedness/Management Problems References Flood Introduction Flood Types Flood Analysis Flood Prediction Flood Routing Urban Floods Understanding Flood Hazards Evacuation Zones Flood Damage Resiliency Floodplain Management Case Studies Problems References

Computational improvement for dynamic programming models by diagnosing infeasible storage combinations

A dynamic programming (DP) optimization model is developed for long term planning of multiple-reservoir operations. To overcome the well-known dimensionality problem associated with such a model, a heuristic approach is used to narrow the needed search algorithm within the state space of the DP model. This method can recognize many infeasible transitions from the initial to the final state of the DP stages. By diagnosing these infeasible transitions in advance and removing them from further computations, significant improvement in computational load is achieved so that the computer time for solving the model is reduced more than 50 times for the reservoir system under study. This methodology is applied to a four-reservoir system located in Iran.

Climate regionalizing for the assessment of ENSO, NAO and SST effect on regional meteorological drought: Application of fuzzy clustering

The effect of teleconnection climate signals on climate variability of different regions in the world has been the focus of interests of many investigations since early 90s. The feasibility of long-term climate prediction through understating of how climate signals may affect the regional rainfall, have made these studies important for strategic watershed management. This study is consisted of a regional assessment of rainfall and the long-term variation of climate in the southwestern part of Iran. In this region, there are considerable water resources in major rivers of Karoon, Dez and Karkheh. The climate regionalizing of the study area is done based on the long-term variations of observed rainfall during dry spells at each station over the region. Drought characteristics such as duration and severity are considered as the main criteria in the regionalizing process. Fuzzy clustering by equivalence relation method is used to cluster 23 stations over the region. The clusters show the regions with similar pattern of drought events. The relation between extreme events of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the seasonal rainfall at each station is assessed. This analysis is also done for the Sea Surface Temperature of Persian Gulf (PG-SST) as an indicator of rainfall in the southwestern part of Iran. The method of Fuzzy clustering is also used for this purpose. This method provides three regional maps, each showing the regions with similar behavior during the extreme events of ENSO, NAO, and PG-SST. Then clusters of similar signal-affected stations are compared with the clusters of similardrought pattern. The similarity between these two kinds of clusters shows that drought pattern in which stations is affected by climate signals. The results show that the global circulation patterns such as ENSO, NAO, and PG-SST could be indicators of meteorological drought in the study area.

Reservoir Operation Optimization: A Nonstructural Solution for Control of Seepage from Lar Reservoir in Iran

Abstract In this paper, the results of utilizing a deterministic dynamic programming model for operation of Lar Reservoir in Iran are discussed. This reservoir has experienced extensive seepage from the start of its operation. The optimization model consists of a three-step cycle, which began with the optimization of reservoir operation for a given set of streamflows. The optimal policies are then analyzed in a regression procedure to obtain a set of operating rules. After the first run, operating rules from the previous run were placed as a new constraint on the water releases with some pre-assigned tolerance and the cycle continues. The model also consisted of mathematical functions for modeling the seepage from Lar Reservoir as a function of storage head in the reservoir. The loss function in the model was also modified in order to incorporate parameters that reduce the seepage. Results of different scenarios showed the significant effect of optimal policies on reduction of seepage and increasing the reliability of water supply to Tehran Metropolitan Area. A pumping station was also proposed to utilize the inactive part of the reservoir, in access of over 100 MCM, in order to reduce the seepage. The effectiveness of different pumping capacities to reduce the seepage was also investigated.

Long-Lead Forecasting of Monthly Rainfall Using Large Scale Climate Signals and Statistical Disaggregation Models

Monsoon, one of the most dynamic climate systems, controls rainfall variation in some countries in Asia such as India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Iran. It delivers the main component of annual rainfall in these regions. In this study, the relationship between Iran monsoon rainfalls and some large scale climate signals such as SLP (Sea Level Pressure) and SLP differences over certain effective regions have been examined. The correlation coefficient between various combinations of climate signals with the rainfall at different time lags demonstrates some significant correlations which are used to identify the predictors for the rainfall forecasting. In this paper, a fuzzy rule model has been developed to predict the six-month rainfall in the southeastern part of Iran. Then the long-lead forecasting rainfall is disaggregated to a monthly scale using statistical disaggregation models and by considering the historical share of each month from total 6 month precipitations. In real time, the predicted value of each month during the 6 month time horizon is modified once the observed precipitation in any of the prior months becomes available using the Bayesian Theory. This way the accuracy of prediction will be significantly increased as we approach the last 3 months of the forecast period. The proposed model makes adequate lead time for estimation of the water resources potential for mid-term planning. Since the planning scale of water resources planning is usually monthly, disaggregated rainfall could increase the accuracy of operating schemes in the study area.

Impacts of River Morphology Changes on Floodplain Zoning: A Case Study

Flood is a natural event which depends on numerous parameters, and affects floodplain land use planning based on an acceptable level of risk. In order to predict the extent of the floodplain, it is necessary to consider flood characteristics including flood return periods. One of the most important parameters in floodplain studies is how to deal with the variability of river cross sections and considering their effects on the uncertainties of river engineering studies, which has not been emphasized much in previous works. Because of the variation in river morphology due to erosion and sedimentation during major floods, hydraulic routing of the flood is affected by the variations in cross sections. The HEC-RAS simulation model is used to investigate the flood plain variations. In this paper, floodplain zoning at the Pirsohrab plain located in the south-eastern part of Iran is investigated. Sensitivity analysis on river cross sections is done for predicting the critical reaches of the river. Based on the results of this study, recommendations are given to reanalyze the placement of a pressure irrigation network supported by levee construction.

Dealing with Conflict on How to Operate Multi-Purpose Reservoirs: A Case Study

Conflicting targets and water use alternatives among different users and stakeholders is a major challenge in multi-purpose reservoir operation. In this study a GA-based optimization model is used for integrated long-term operation of a reservoir with water allocation and flood control objectives. The objective function of the optimization model is based on the Nash bargaining theory which can incorporate the utility functions of the decision makers and the water users as well as their relative authorities on the water allocation process. The model is applied to the Karkheh reservoir system in the southwestern part of Iran. The utility functions are based on the reliability of the allocated water to different sectors, the environmental water demand, water storage in the reservoir and the reliability of the reservoir for flood control. The results show that this model can be effectively used in optimal multi-purpose reservoir operation with conflicting objectives.