Mohammad Mokhtari

Earthquake Disaster Risk Reduction in Iran: Lessons and “Lessons Learned” from Three Large Earthquake Disasters—Tabas 1978, Rudbar 1990, and Bam 2003

This article addresses three large earthquake disasters in Iran: Tabas in 1978, Rudbar in 1990, and Bam in 2003. Lessons and “Lessons Learned” from these three earthquake disasters were investigated together with their contributions over time towards earthquake disaster risk reduction in Iran. Many lessons from 1978 Tabas, 1990 Rudbar, and 2003 Bam did not become “Lessons Learned” and they were identified again within the dramatic context of other earthquake disasters in various places of Iran. Both lessons and “Lessons Learned” from Tabas, Rudbar, Bam, and other earthquake disasters in Iran require a sustainable long-term framework—an earthquake culture.

Short-Term Prediction of Mediumand Large-Size Earthquakes Based on Markov and Extended Self-Similarity Analysis of Seismic Data

We propose a novel method for analyzing precursory seismic data before an earthquake that treats them as a Markov process and distinguishes the background noise from real fluctuations due to an earthquake. A short time (on the order of several hours) before an earthquake the Markov time scale t M increases sharply, hence providing an alarm for an impending earthquake. To distinguish a false alarm from a reliable one, we compute a second quantity, T 1 , based on the concept of extended self-similarity of the data. Ti also changes strongly before an earthquake occurs. An alarm is accepted if both t M and Ti indicate it simultaneously. Calibrating the method with the data for one region provides a tool for predicting an impending earthquake within that region. Our analysis of the data for a large number of earthquakes indicate an essentially zero rate of failure for the method.

Seismological Aspects of the 2003 Bam, Iran, Earthquake and Its Aftershock Analysis

The source mechanism derived from the inversion of long-period body waves revealed that the earthquake occurred on a north-south trending strike-slip fault with a thrust component. According to the source model estimated in this study, the 2003 Bam, Iran, earthquake was a multiple event formed by two subevents. The rupture following subevent one started at a depth of about 8 km. However, the depth of subevent two is about 10 km. The total seismic moment estimated from inversion processes is 8.34×1018 Nm. The pulse duration of subevent one and subevent two was determined from source time function as 1.7 s and 0.8 s, respectively. Corner frequency and source radius have been calculated by using major pulse duration. The corner frequency and source radius are 0.187 Hz and 5.47 km, respectively. The aftershock events distributed along a 30 km north-south striking fault. The focal depths of aftershocks distribution show a nearly vertical alignment of aftershocks located between 6 and 20 km depth. The focal mechanism solutions of aftershocks indicate right-lateral strike-slip faulting on a north-south trending fault, parallel to the previously known Bam fault trace in the east of Bam.

Modeling of Tsunami Propagation in the Vicinity of the Southern Coasts of Iran

The extensive death toll and sever economical damages brought by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami has emphasized the urgent need for assessing the hazard of tsunami in this ocean, and determining the most vulnerable coastlines to the impact of possible tsunami. In this paper the hazard of tsunami for southern coasts of Iran bordering the Indian Ocean is discussed. At first, historical data of tsunami occurrences on the Iranian southern coasts are collected, described and analyzed. Then, numerical simulation of potential tsunamis in the Makran subduction zone is performed and the tsunami wave height distribution along the Iranian coast is calculated. The Makran subduction zone is among two main tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean. In this zone the Oman oceanic plate subducts beneath the Iranian Micro-plate at an estimated rate of about 19 mm/yr. Historically, there is the potential for tsunami generation in this region and several tsunamis attacked the Makran coastlines in the past. The most recent tsunami in this region has occurred on 28 November 1945 which took the lives of more than 4000 people in the coasts of Iran, Pakistan, India, and Oman. Here we examine the seafloor uplift of the Makran zone and its potential for generating destructive tsunamis in the southern coastlines of Iran. Several earthquake scenarios with moment magnitudes ranging between 6.5 and 8.5 are used as initial conditions for analysis. For scenario of an earthquake with magnitude of 8.0, propagation of tsunami waves on coastlines and wave time histories in selected reference locations are calculated.Copyright