Mohammed Mainuddin

Economic Assessment of Acquiring Water for Environmental Flows in the Murray Basin

This article is an economic analysis of reallocating River Murray Basin water from agriculture to the environment with and without the possibility of interregional water trade. Acquiring environmental flows as an equal percentage of water allocations from all irrigation regions in the Basin is estimated to reduce returns to irrigation. When the same volume of water is taken from selected low-value regions only, the net revenue reduction is less. In all scenarios considered, net revenue gains from freeing trade are estimated to outweigh the negative revenue effects of reallocating water for environmental flows. The model accounts for how stochastic weather affects market water demand, supply and requirements for environmental flows. Net irrigation revenue is estimated to be

Producing more food with less water in a changing world: assessment of water productivity in 10 major river basins

75 million less than the baseline level for a scenario involving reallocating a constant volume of water for the environment in both wet and dry years. For a more realistic scenario involving more water for the environment in wet and less in dry years, estimated net revenue loss is reduced by 48 per cent to

Adaptation to climate change for food security in the lower Mekong Basin

39 million. Finally, the external salinity-related costs of water trading are estimated at around

A biophysical and economic model of agriculture and water in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

1 million per annum, a quite modest amount compared to the direct irrigation benefits of trade.

Impact of climate change on rainfed rice and options for adaptation in the lower Mekong Basin

This article summarizes the results of water productivity assessment in 10 river basins across Asia, Africa and South America, representing a range of agro-climatic and socio-economic conditions. Intensive farming in the Asian basins gives much greater agricultural outputs and higher water productivity. Largely subsistence agriculture in Africa has significantly lower water productivity. There is very high intra-basin variability, which is attributed mainly to lack of inputs, and poor water and crop management. Closing gaps between “bright spots” and the poorly performing areas are the major tasks for better food security and improved livelihoods, which have to be balanced with environmental sustainability.

The Mekong: a diverse basin facing the tensions of development.

Variability in water cycles driven by climate change is considered likely to impact rice production in the near future. Rice is the main staple food for the population in the lower Mekong Basin and the demand for food is expected to grow due to increase in population. This paper examines the impact of climate change on rice production in the lower Mekong Basin, evaluates some widely used adaptation options, and analyses their implications for overall food security by 2050. Climate change data used in the study are the future climate projection for two IPCC SRES scenarios, A2 and B2, based on ECHAM4 General Circulation Model downscaled to the Mekong region using the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) system. In general, the results suggest that yield of rainfed rice may increase significantly in the upper part of the basin in Laos and Thailand and may decrease in the lower part of the basin in Cambodia and Vietnam. Irrigated rice may not be affected by climate change if increased irrigation requirements are met. Negative impact on the yield of rainfed rice can be offset and net increase in yield can be achieved by applying widely used adaptation options such as changing planting date, supplementary irrigation and increased fertilizer input. Analysis of the projected production, considering population growth by 2050, suggests that food security of the basin is unlikely to be threatened by the increased population and climate change, excluding extreme events such as sea level rise and cyclones.

Water and agricultural productivity in the Lower Mekong Basin: trends and future prospects.

Economic analysis of climate scenarios and alternative water policies is critical for development and implementation of appropriate water policies and programs. Mathematical models have been developed to assess water resources policies due to their ability to explicitly represent the biophysical dynamics of natural systems while integrating these within social and economic constraints. These models have been criticised, however, due to the problems of simplification, overspecialisation, plausibility and lack of empirical validation. This paper introduces a mathematical programming model which uses positive mathematical programming method to calibrate and model agriculture and water use in the Murray-Darling Basin of Australia. This paper reviews the theoretical and technical details of the model development including the key steps taken in collating and scaling the biophysical and economic data, and to address model parameterisation issues. The paper summarises results of an application of the model for assessing climate change impacts in the form of reduced rainfall and water allocations and increased crop water use for agricultural production. The results show the degree of variability in gross values under different climate scenarios compared to the base case scenario, especially in very dry years. The results also show how on-farm adaptation options and water markets can mitigate these losses.

The impact of climate change on regional water balances in Bangladesh

We assessed the potential impact of climate change on the yield of rainfed rice in the lower Mekong Basin and evaluated some adaptation options, using a crop growth simulation model. Future climate projections are based on IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios as simulated by ECHAM4 global climate model downscaled for the Mekong Basin using the PRECIS system. We divided the basin into 14 agro-climatic zones and selected a sub-catchment within each zone for the model and assessed the impact for the period of 2010–2030 and 2030–2050. In general, the results suggest that yield of rainfed rice may increase significantly in the upper part of the basin in Laos and Thailand and may decrease in the lower part of the basin in Cambodia and Vietnam. The increase is higher during 2030–2050 compared to the period of 2010–2030 for A2 scenario. For B2 scenario, yield increase is higher during 2010–2030. The impact is mainly due to the change in rainfall and CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. We have tested widely used adaptation options such as changing planting date, supplementary irrigation, and reduction in fertility stress and found that negative impact on yield can be offset and net increase in yield can be achieved.

Agricultural productivity in the lower Mekong Basin: trends and future prospects for food security

Population is growing in the relatively unregulated Mekong River basin, and demands for hydropower and food are increasing. The basin has prospered but the poorest have not shared the benefits. Agricultural production is keeping up with rising food demand, but capture fisheries are unlikely to increase production, threatening the supply of animal protein in peoples diets. National governments decide water issues unilaterally, with weak transnational institutions and limited public participation. Growing pressures, exacerbated by climate change, will likely increase tensions over access to water, reinforcing perceptions of institutional failure and stimulating demands for improved governance.

Assessing irrigated agriculture's surface water and groundwater consumption by combining satellite remote sensing and hydrologic modelling.

Agricultural productivity varies markedly across the Lower Mekong Basin. Production of rice is increasing everywhere, whereas per capita increases are marked in Vietnam and modest elsewhere. Fisheries are a major source of animal protein in all parts of the basin, especially in Cambodia and Vietnam. Production of capture fishery is static with some signs of overfishing, whereas aquaculture production in the delta is increasing rapidly. The increased population in 2050, together with changed diets, will require considerable increases in production. This requirement may be met by increasing the area under production, or by increasing the area under irrigation (with consequent downstream impacts). Production of capture fisheries is unlikely to increase, whereas aquaculture and mixed use rice–fish systems appear capable of greatly increased production. The anticipated changes to climate and hence flow are expected to affect agriculture and food production, and may make it more difficult to meet the increased food demand.