Monika M. Safford

Cardiovascular effects of intensive lifestyle intervention in type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND Weight loss is recommended for overweight or obese patients with type 2 diabetes on the basis of short-term studies, but long-term effects on cardiovascular disease remain unknown. We examined whether an intensive lifestyle intervention for weight loss would decrease cardiovascular morbidity and mortality among such patients. METHODS In 16 study centers in the United States, we randomly assigned 5145 overweight or obese patients with type 2 diabetes to participate in an intensive lifestyle intervention that promoted weight loss through decreased caloric intake and increased physical activity (intervention group) or to receive diabetes support and education (control group). The primary outcome was a composite of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or hospitalization for angina during a maximum follow-up of 13.5 years. RESULTS The trial was stopped early on the basis of a futility analysis when the median follow-up was 9.6 years. Weight loss was greater in the intervention group than in the control group throughout the study (8.6% vs. 0.7% at 1 year; 6.0% vs. 3.5% at study end). The intensive lifestyle intervention also produced greater reductions in glycated hemoglobin and greater initial improvements in fitness and all cardiovascular risk factors, except for low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol levels. The primary outcome occurred in 403 patients in the intervention group and in 418 in the control group (1.83 and 1.92 events per 100 person-years, respectively; hazard ratio in the intervention group, 0.95; 95% confidence interval, 0.83 to 1.09; P=0.51). CONCLUSIONS An intensive lifestyle intervention focusing on weight loss did not reduce the rate of cardiovascular events in overweight or obese adults with type 2 diabetes. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others; Look AHEAD ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00017953.).

Reduction in weight and cardiovascular disease risk factors in individuals with type 2 diabetes: one-year results of the look AHEAD trial.

OBJECTIVE—The effectiveness of intentional weight loss in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in type 2 diabetes is unknown. This report describes 1-year changes in CVD risk factors in a trial designed to examine the long-term effects of an intensive lifestyle intervention on the incidence of major CVD events. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—This study consisted of a multicentered, randomized, controlled trial of 5,145 individuals with type 2 diabetes, aged 45–74 years, with BMI >25 kg/m2 (>27 kg/m2 if taking insulin). An intensive lifestyle intervention (ILI) involving group and individual meetings to achieve and maintain weight loss through decreased caloric intake and increased physical activity was compared with a diabetes support and education (DSE) condition. RESULTS—Participants assigned to ILI lost an average 8.6% of their initial weight vs. 0.7% in DSE group (P < 0.001). Mean fitness increased in ILI by 20.9 vs. 5.8% in DSE (P < 0.001). A greater proportion of ILI participants had reductions in diabetes, hypertension, and lipid-lowering medicines. Mean A1C dropped from 7.3 to 6.6% in ILI (P < 0.001) vs. from 7.3 to 7.2% in DSE. Systolic and diastolic pressure, triglycerides, HDL cholesterol, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio improved significantly more in ILI than DSE participants (all P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS—At 1 year, ILI resulted in clinically significant weight loss in people with type 2 diabetes. This was associated with improved diabetes control and CVD risk factors and reduced medicine use in ILI versus DSE. Continued intervention and follow-up will determine whether these changes are maintained and will reduce CVD risk.

Benefits of Modest Weight Loss in Improving Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Overweight and Obese Individuals With Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE Overweight and obese individuals are encouraged to lose 5–10% of their body weight to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, but data supporting this recommendation are limited, particularly for individuals with type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We conducted an observational analysis of participants in the Look AHEAD (Action For Health in Diabetes) study (n = 5,145, 40.5% male, 37% from ethnic/racial minorities) and examined the association between the magnitude of weight loss and changes in CVD risk factors at 1 year and the odds of meeting predefined criteria for clinically significant improvements in risk factors in individuals with type 2 diabetes. RESULTS The magnitude of weight loss at 1 year was strongly (P < 0.0001) associated with improvements in glycemia, blood pressure, tryiglycerides, and HDL cholesterol but not with LDL cholesterol (P = 0.79). Compared with weight-stable participants, those who lost 5 to <10% ([means ± SD] 7.25 ± 2.1 kg) of their body weight had increased odds of achieving a 0.5% point reduction in HbA1c (odds ratio 3.52 [95% CI 2.81–4.40]), a 5-mmHg decrease in diastolic blood pressure (1.48 [1.20–1.82]), a 5-mmHg decrease in systolic blood pressure (1.56 [1.27–1.91]), a 5 mg/dL increase in HDL cholesterol (1.69 [1.37–2.07]), and a 40 mg/dL decrease in triglycerides (2.20 [1.71–2.83]). The odds of clinically significant improvements in most risk factors were even greater in those who lost 10–15% of their body weight. CONCLUSIONS Modest weight losses of 5 to <10% were associated with significant improvements in CVD risk factors at 1 year, but larger weight losses had greater benefits.

Detection of Chronic Kidney Disease With Creatinine, Cystatin C, and Urine Albumin-to-Creatinine Ratio and Association With Progression to End-Stage Renal Disease and Mortality

CONTEXT A triple-marker approach for chronic kidney disease (CKD) evaluation has not been well studied. OBJECTIVE To evaluate whether combining creatinine, cystatin C, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) would improve identification of risks associated with CKD compared with creatinine alone. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Prospective cohort study involving 26,643 US adults enrolled in the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study from January 2003 to June 2010. Participants were categorized into 8 groups defined by estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) determined by creatinine and by cystatin C of either <60 or ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and ACR of either <30 or ≥30 mg/g. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES All-cause mortality and incident end-stage renal disease with median follow-up of 4.6 years. RESULTS Participants had a mean age of 65 years, 40% were black, and 54% were women. Of 26,643 participants, 1940 died and 177 developed end-stage renal disease. Among participants without CKD defined by creatinine, 24% did not have CKD by either ACR or cystatin C. Compared with those with CKD defined by creatinine alone, the hazard ratio for death in multivariable-adjusted models was 3.3 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.0-5.6) for participants with CKD defined by creatinine and ACR; 3.2 (95% CI, 2.2-4.7) for those with CKD defined by creatinine and cystatin C, and 5.6 (95% CI, 3.9-8.2) for those with CKD defined by all biomarkers. Among participants without CKD defined by creatinine, 3863 (16%) had CKD detected by ACR or cystatin C. Compared with participants who did not have CKD by any measure, the HRs for mortality were 1.7 (95% CI, 1.4-1.9) for participants with CKD defined by ACR alone, 2.2 (95% CI, 1.9-2.7) for participants with CKD defined by cystatin C alone, and 3.0 (95% CI, 2.4-3.7) for participants with CKD defined by both measures. Risk of incident end-stage renal disease was higher among those with CKD defined by all markers (34.1 per 1000 person-years; 95% CI, 28.7-40.5 vs 0.33 per 1000 person-years; 95% CI, 0.05-2.3) for those with CKD defined by creatinine alone. The second highest end-stage renal disease rate was among persons missed by the creatinine measure but detected by both ACR and cystatin C (rate per 1000 person-years, 6.4; 95% CI, 3.6-11.3). Net reclassification improvement for death was 13.3% (P < .001) and for end-stage renal disease was 6.4% (P < .001) after adding estimated GFR cystatin C in fully adjusted models with estimated GFR creatinine and ACR. CONCLUSION Adding cystatin C to the combination of creatinine and ACR measures improved the predictive accuracy for all-cause mortality and end-stage renal disease.

Validation of the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease Pooled Cohort risk equations.

IMPORTANCE The American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) Pooled Cohort risk equations were developed to estimate atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and guide statin initiation. OBJECTIVE To assess calibration and discrimination of the Pooled Cohort risk equations in a contemporary US population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Adults aged 45 to 79 years enrolled in the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study between January 2003 and October 2007 and followed up through December 2010. We studied participants for whom atherosclerotic CVD risk may trigger a discussion of statin initiation (those without clinical atherosclerotic CVD or diabetes, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level between 70 and 189 mg/dL, and not taking statins; n = 10,997). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Predicted risk and observed adjudicated atherosclerotic CVD incidence (nonfatal myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease [CHD] death, nonfatal or fatal stroke) at 5 years because REGARDS participants have not been followed up for 10 years. Additional analyses, limited to Medicare beneficiaries (n = 3333), added atherosclerotic CVD events identified in Medicare claims data. RESULTS There were 338 adjudicated events (192 CHD events, 146 strokes). The observed and predicted 5-year atherosclerotic CVD incidence per 1000 person-years for participants with a 10-year predicted atherosclerotic CVD risk of less than 5% was 1.9 (95% CI, 1.3-2.7) and 1.9, respectively, risk of 5% to less than 7.5% was 4.8 (95% CI, 3.4-6.7) and 4.8, risk of 7.5% to less than 10% was 6.1 (95% CI, 4.4-8.6) and 6.9, and risk of 10% or greater was 12.0 (95% CI, 10.6-13.6) and 15.1 (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 = 19.9, P = .01). The C index was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.70-0.75). There were 234 atherosclerotic CVD events (120 CHD events, 114 strokes) among Medicare-linked participants and the observed and predicted 5-year atherosclerotic CVD incidence per 1000 person-years for participants with a predicted risk of less than 7.5% was 5.3 (95% CI, 2.8-10.1) and 4.0, respectively, risk of 7.5% to less than 10% was 7.9 (95% CI, 4.6-13.5) and 6.4, and risk of 10% or greater was 17.4 (95% CI, 15.3-19.8) and 16.4 (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 = 5.4, P = .71). The C index was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.64-0.71). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this cohort of US adults for whom statin initiation is considered based on the ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort risk equations, observed and predicted 5-year atherosclerotic CVD risks were similar, indicating that these risk equations were well calibrated in the population for which they were designed to be used, and demonstrated moderate to good discrimination.

Disparities in stroke incidence contributing to disparities in stroke mortality.

While black‐white and regional disparities in U.S. stroke mortality rates are well documented, the contribution of disparities in stroke incidence is unknown. We provide national estimates of stroke incidence by race and region, contrasting these to publicly available stroke mortality data.

Atrial Fibrillation and the Risk of Myocardial Infarction

IMPORTANCE Myocardial infarction (MI) is an established risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF). However, the extent to which AF is a risk factor for MI has not been investigated. OBJECTIVE To examine the risk of incident MI associated with AF. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A prospective cohort of 23,928 participants residing in the continental United States and without coronary heart disease at baseline were enrolled from the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort between 2003 and 2007, with follow-up through December 2009. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Expert-adjudicated total MI events (fatal and nonfatal). RESULTS Over 6.9 years of follow-up (median 4.5 years), 648 incident MI events occurred. In a sociodemographic-adjusted model, AF was associated with about 2-fold increased risk of MI (hazard ratio [HR], 1.96 [95% CI, 1.52-2.52]). This association remained significant (HR, 1.70 [95% CI, 1.26-2.30]) after further adjustment for total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, blood pressure-lowering drugs, body mass index, diabetes, warfarin use, aspirin use, statin use, history of stroke and vascular disease, estimated glomerular filtration rate, albumin to creatinine ratio, and C-reactive protein level. In subgroup analysis, the risk of MI associated with AF was significantly higher in women (HR, 2.16 [95% CI, 1.41-3.31]) than in men (HR, 1.39 [95% CI, 0.91-2.10]) and in blacks (HR, 2.53 [95% CI, 1.67-3.86]) than in whites (HR, 1.26 [95% CI, 0.83-1.93]); for interactions, P = .03 and P = .02, respectively. On the other hand, there were no significant differences in the risk of MI associated with AF in older (≥75 years) vs younger (<75 years) participants (HR, 2.00 [95% CI, 1.16-3.35] and HR, 1.60 [95% CI, 1.11-2.30], respectively); for interaction, P = .44. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE AF is independently associated with an increased risk of incident MI, especially in women and blacks. These findings add to the growing concerns of the seriousness of AF as a public health burden: in addition to being a well-known risk factor for stroke, AF is also associated with increased risk of MI.

Predictors of cardiac rehabilitation referral in coronary artery disease patients: findings from the American Heart Association's Get With The Guidelines Program.

OBJECTIVES Our purpose was to determine factors independently associated with cardiac rehabilitation referral, which are currently not well described at a national level. BACKGROUND Substantial numbers of eligible patients are not referred to cardiac rehabilitation at hospital discharge despite proven reductions in mortality and national guideline recommendations. METHODS We used data from the American Heart Associations Get With The Guidelines program, analyzing 72,817 patients discharged alive after a myocardial infarction, percutaneous coronary intervention, or coronary artery bypass graft surgery between January 2000 and September 2007 from 156 hospitals. We identified factors associated with cardiac rehabilitation referral at discharge and performed multivariable logistic regression, adjusted for clustering, to identify which factors were independently associated with cardiac rehabilitation referral. RESULTS Mean age was 64.1 +/- 13.0 years, 68% were men, 79% were white, and 30% had diabetes, 66% hypertension, and 52% dyslipidemia; mean body mass index was 29.1 +/- 6.3 kg/m(2), and mean ejection fraction 49.0 +/- 13.6%. All patients were admitted for coronary artery disease (CAD), with 71% admitted for myocardial infarction. Overall, only 40,974 (56%) were referred to cardiac rehabilitation at discharge, ranging from 53% for myocardial infarction to 58% for percutaneous coronary intervention and to 74% for coronary artery bypass graft patients. Older age, non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, and the presence of most comorbidities were associated with decreased odds of cardiac rehabilitation referral. CONCLUSIONS Despite strong evidence for benefit, only 56% of eligible CAD patients discharged from these hospitals were referred to cardiac rehabilitation. Increased physician awareness about the benefits of cardiac rehabilitation and initiatives to overcome barriers to referral are critical to improve the quality of care of patients with CAD.

Oral Bisphosphonate Use and Breast Cancer Incidence in Postmenopausal Women

PURPOSE Emerging clinical evidence suggests intravenous bisphosphonates may inhibit breast cancer while oral bisphosphonates have received limited evaluation regarding breast cancer influence. PATIENTS AND METHODS The association between oral bisphosphonate use and invasive breast cancer was examined in postmenopausal women enrolled onto the Womens Health Initiative (WHI). We compared a published hip fracture prediction model, which did not incorporate bone mineral density (BMD), with total hip BMD in 10,418 WHI participants who had both determinations. To adjust for potential BMD difference based on bisphosphonate use, the hip fracture prediction score was included in multivariant analyses as a BMD surrogate. RESULTS Of the 154,768 participants, 2,816 were oral bisphosphonate users at entry (90% alendronate, 10% etidronate). As calculated hip fracture risk score was significantly associated with both BMD (regression line = 0.79 to 0.0478 log predicted fracture; P < .001; r = 0.43) and breast cancer incidence (P = .03), this variable was incorporated into regression analyses to adjust for BMD difference between users and nonusers of bisphopshonate. After 7.8 mean years of follow-up (standard deviation, 1.7), invasive breast cancer incidence was lower in bisphosphonate users (hazard ratio [HR], 0.68; 95% CI, 0.52 to 0.88; P < .01) as was incidence of estrogen receptor (ER) -positive invasive cancers (HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.52 to 0.94, P = .02). A similar but not significant trend was seen for ER-negative invasive cancers. The incidence of ductal carcinoma in situ was higher in bisphosphonate users (HR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.08 to 2.31; P = .02). CONCLUSION Oral bisphosphonate use was associated with significantly lower invasive breast cancer incidence, suggesting bisphosphonates may have inhibiting effects on breast cancer.

Patient Complexity: More Than Comorbidity. The Vector Model of Complexity

BACKGROUNDThe conceptualization of patient complexity is just beginning in clinical medicine.OBJECTIVESThis study aims (1) to propose a conceptual approach to complex patients; (2) to demonstrate how this approach promotes achieving congruence between patient and provider, a critical step in the development of maximally effective treatment plans; and (3) to examine availability of evidence to guide trade-off decisions and assess healthcare quality for complex patients.METHODS/RESULTSThe Vector Model of Complexity portrays interactions between biological, socioeconomic, cultural, environmental and behavioral forces as health determinants. These forces are not easily discerned but exert profound influences on processes and outcomes of care for chronic medical conditions. Achieving congruence between patient, physician, and healthcare system is essential for effective, patient-centered care; requires assessment of all axes of the Vector Model; and, frequently, requires trade-off decisions to develop a tailored treatment plan. Most evidence-based guidelines rarely provide guidance for trade-off decisions. Quality measures often exclude complex patients and are not designed explicitly to assess their overall healthcare.CONCLUSIONS/RECOMMENDATIONSWe urgently need to expand the evidence base to inform the care of complex patients of all kinds, especially for the clinical trade-off decisions that are central to tailoring care. We offer long- and short-term strategies to begin to incorporate complexity into quality measurement and performance profiling, guided by the Vector Model. Interdisciplinary research should lay the foundation for a deeper understanding of the multiple sources of patient complexity and their interactions, and how provision of healthcare should be harmonized with complexity to optimize health.