Monique Ebell

Assessing the Impact of Trade Agreements on Trade

One of the key issues facing the UK in the wake of the advisory referendum result to leave the European Union is the precise nature of its relationship with the European Union. At one extreme would be continued membership in the European Economic Area, including membership in the single market. Other options would be either no free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU at all or a less comprehensive FTA which stops short of single market membership. This paper compares the ability of EEA membership and less comprehensive FTAs to generate trade in goods and services. We investigate this question using empirical gravity model methodology and the most recent available data from 42 countries. We use recently developed econometric methods to deal with observations of zero trade flows and issues connected with endogeneity. The main finding is that while EEA membership is associated with substantial and statistically significant increases in bilateral services trade flows, membership in less comprehensive FTAs is not associated with any significant increase in bilateral services trade. For goods, EEA membership is associated with larger bilateral trade flows than are less comprehensive FTAs. These results suggest that it might be difficult to replace, on an exit from a European Union, lost trade flows with the EU by means of shallower FTAs with the EU or with third countries.

The Economics of UK Constitutional Change: Introduction

The tectonic plates of UK economic and political power are shifting. The Glorious Revolution in 1688 brought institutional reforms, including the Bill of Rights, that aligned political and taxation power in Westminster. In their famous study, North and Weingast (1989) interpreted this alignment as a necessary condition for the industrial revolution to take place in England. Local government functioned through parishes, boroughs and counties which survived most of the next century before consolidating into regional authorities. Over the next two centuries, UK government became increasingly centralised in line with political enfranchisement.

Value Added from Trade for Key Business and Financial Service Industries: Initial Estimates

The value of exports to the domestic UK economy does not equal gross export flows, as some of the value-added within UK exports may have been generated abroad. For key business and financial service industries we present new and initial estimates giving a lower bound for the value-added component of exports generated directly by the domestic exporting sector, called the direct domestic value-added component of exports. Our initial estimates suggest that at least 38 per cent of UK monetary financial institutions (MFIs) exports in 2016 was direct domestic value-added amounting to £14.6bn, of which £5.0bn came from exports to the EU. These initial estimates suggest that approximately 80 per cent of accountancy and legal services exports in 2014 were direct domestic value-added amounting to £1.7bn and £5.2bn respectively, of which £500mn and £1.7bn came from exports to the EU respectively.

Unconventional Monetary Policy: Introduction

The world’s four major central banks have turned to new forms of monetary policy to support demand during the Global Financial Crisis.1 The conventional policy instrument of overnight interest rates was reduced to close to zero per cent within eighteen months of the crisis.2 This presents a problem of providing further stimulus by lowering interest rates; if rates turn negative then depositors always have the option of holding wealth in cash at a zero interest rate. The option of holding cash is thought to create an effective floor on interest rates known as the zero lower bound (ZLB). Central banks have had to find new ways of deploying monetary policy, popularly known as ‘unconventional’ monetary policy, to provide further stimulus subject to the ZLB.

The Unintended Consequence of English Votes for English Laws

The Scotland Bill 2015–16 would make the Scottish government one of the most powerful sub-central governments in the OECD in terms of its control over spending and taxation. The UK government has also announced plans to introduce ‘English Votes for English Laws’ (EVEL), where the support of a majority of English MPs would be necessary to pass legislation deemed to impact on England only. The objective of this paper is to examine the potential for spillovers to arise in monetary unions of asymmetric nations where fiscal policy choices are taken locally. We extend a model of Chari and Kehoe (2008) to show the sub-optimal consequences of devolved fiscal policy in a moneteary union with a dominant member state. Because England is so much larger than the other constituent nations of the UK, its fiscal policy choices will have a commensurately stronger impact on UK monetary policy. As a result, UK monetary policy might be inappropriate for the smaller nations, calling into question the economic efficiency of EVEL. This is a general result which arises from the asymmetry of nations rather than specific UK funding arrangements or behavioural responses.