Mordecai Ezekiel

The Cobweb Theorem

History of the cobweb theorem, 255.— Restatement of the theory of market price, 257.— Restatement of the theory of normal price, 261. — Summary of cobweb theorem: (1) continuous fluctuation, 263; (2) divergent fluctuation, 263; (3) Convergent fluctuation, 265.— Extension of the cobweb analysis: (1a) two-period lag in supply, continuous fluctuation, 266; (3b) three-period lag in supply, convergent fluctuation, 266.— Cycles revealed, 268.— Limitations of the theory, 272.— An illustrative case from actual data, 274.— Not all commodity cycles cobwebs, 277.— Equilibrium economics in the light of the cobweb theory, 278.

The Application of the Theory of Error to Multiple and Curvilinear Correlation

(1929). The Application of the Theory of Error to Multiple and Curvilinear Correlation. Journal of the American Statistical Association: Vol. 24, Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, pp. 99-104.

Statistical Analyses and the “Laws” of Price

Economists have been skeptical as to the real significance of statistical price analyses. Simplified assumptions as to nature of price determination are partly responsible, 201. — Marshalls treatment was nearer to the concrete facts, 202. — Definition of the market in time and space has an important bearing upon the meaning of the data, 203. — Actual events represent constant flux, not successive static periods, 203. — Statistics can reveal only current adjustments, not final equilibria, 203. — The type of the adjustment varies with the length of the period, 204. — The prices which directly affect production and consumption are frequently not the central market prices, 205; and non-economic factors also are involved, 206. — A curve of supply-and-price may be determined from observations in successive intervals, 207; even if demand is changing, 208. — The curve of supply-and-price is not the theoretical demand curve, 214; since reservation demands by producers may be regarded either as a demand-schedule or a supply-schedule, 215. — With regard to a price fixed by total supply, reservation demands are part of the demand schedule, 215. — But this schedule may be resolved into its components by proper statistical analyses, 216. — This involves determination (a) of the effect of price upon supply, and (b) of the effect of price upon storage, consumption, and withholdings, 217. — Price also has an effect upon subsequent production, 219. — Such changes in production are usually more important than immediate adjustments of supply to price, 220. — This is true even of durable goods, 221. — Statistical measurement of the effect of price upon production illustrated, 222. — Statistical measurements of economic reactions do not yield absolute laws, 223. — This analysis refutes some previous criticisms of the logic of statistical price studies, 224, and of the methods, 225; and indicates the statistical cautions needed to give reliable results, 226.

The Broadening Field of Agricultural Economics

The whole curve of American economic and political life has shifted to a new long-time trend, which may persist through the present generation. The turn in the trend became evident with the election of 1932; the election of 1936 indicates that the new direction will persist over many decades. The dominant characteristic of this new orientation is the belief that our economic institutions have lagged behind our technological progress; that depressions, individual insecurity, and unemployment are the result of these obsolescent institutions; and that conscious action to remodel the old institutions or to create new ones can increase

Population and Unemployment

THE phenomenon of continuing heavy unemployment is a new one in the United States; yet it is one to which we are already becoming accustomed. In fact, we seem to be becoming resigned to it. Many leaders of public thought and political action seem to have accepted the philosophy that chronic unemployment is tion has been increased by 52.2 per cent. With this increase in output, and substantially unchanged working week, the number of men at work in factories increased 39.7 per cent, while the number of persons unemployed declined roughly from 15 million to 12 million. As compared to the previous peak year, 1929, we have re-