Morgan Bazilian

Harmonization of initial estimates of shale gas life cycle greenhouse gas emissions for electric power generation

Significance Previously published life cycle assessments (LCAs) of greenhouse gas emissions from the production and use of shale gas have come to widely varying conclusions about both the magnitude of emissions and its comparison with conventionally produced natural gas and coal for electricity generation. We harmonize estimates from this literature to establish more consistently derived and robust summary of the current state of knowledge. Whereas median estimates for both gas types appear less than half that of coal, alternative assumptions may lead to emissions approaching best-performing coal units, with implications for climate change mitigation strategies. Recent technological advances in the recovery of unconventional natural gas, particularly shale gas, have served to dramatically increase domestic production and reserve estimates for the United States and internationally. This trend has led to lowered prices and increased scrutiny on production practices. Questions have been raised as to how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the life cycle of shale gas production and use compares with that of conventionally produced natural gas or other fuel sources such as coal. Recent literature has come to different conclusions on this point, largely due to differing assumptions, comparison baselines, and system boundaries. Through a meta-analytical procedure we call harmonization, we develop robust, analytically consistent, and updated comparisons of estimates of life cycle GHG emissions for electricity produced from shale gas, conventionally produced natural gas, and coal. On a per-unit electrical output basis, harmonization reveals that median estimates of GHG emissions from shale gas-generated electricity are similar to those for conventional natural gas, with both approximately half that of the central tendency of coal. Sensitivity analysis on the harmonized estimates indicates that assumptions regarding liquids unloading and estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of wells have the greatest influence on life cycle GHG emissions, whereby shale gas life cycle GHG emissions could approach the range of best-performing coal-fired generation under certain scenarios. Despite clarification of published estimates through harmonization, these initial assessments should be confirmed through methane emissions measurements at components and in the atmosphere and through better characterization of EUR and practices.

Renewable Electricity Futures for the United States

This paper highlights the key results from the Renewable Electricity (RE) Futures Study. It is a detailed consideration of renewable electricity in the United States. The paper focuses on technical issues related to the operability of the U.S. electricity grid and provides initial answers to important questions about the integration of high penetrations of renewable electricity technologies from a national perspective. The results indicate that the future U.S. electricity system that is largely powered by renewable sources is possible and the further work is warranted to investigate this clean generation pathway. The central conclusion of the analysis is that renewable electricity generation from technologies that are commercially available today, in combination with a more flexible electric system, is more than adequate to supply 80% of the total U.S. electricity generation in 2050 while meeting electricity demand on an hourly basis in every region of the United States.

RES-E-NEXT: Next Generation of RES-E Policy Instruments

The rapid deployment of renewable sources of electricity (RES-E) is transforming power systems globally. This trend is likely to continue with large increases in investment and deployment of RES-E capacity over the coming decades. Several countries now have penetration levels of variable RES-E generation (i.e., wind and solar) in excess of 15% of their annual electricity generation; and many jurisdictions (e.g., Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Germany, and Denmark; and, in the United States, Colorado) have experienced instantaneous penetration levels of more than 50% variable generation.1 These penetration levels of variable RES-E have prompted many jurisdictions to begin modifying practices that evolved in an era of readily dispatchable, centralised power systems. Providing insights for the transition to high levels of variable RES-E generation is the focus of this document, which is the final report of the RES-E-NEXT project commissioned by the International Energy Agency’s implementing agreement on Renewable Energy Technology Deployment (IEA-RETD). It presents a comprehensive assessment of issues that will shape power system evolution during the transition to high levels of variable RES-E generation. While policy will be a central tool to sustain the growth of RES-E capacity and to enable power system transitions, the scope of the report extends beyondmorexa0» policy considerations to include the related domains of regulation, power market design, and system operation protocols. This broad scope is in recognition that a changing resource mix with greater penetration levels of variable RES-E has broad implications for grid operations, wholesale and retail power markets, and infrastructure needs. The next decade will be a critical transition period for power system stakeholders, as global deployment of RES-E capacity (and especially variable RES-E capacity) continues to scale-up in many regions of the world. To address increased penetration levels of RES-E in power systems and the new challenges that could emerge, coordinated portfolios of policies, market designs, regulations, and operational protocols are essential. The goal for policymakers is to facilitate investment in RES-E technologies and to enable efficient and reliable system operation, costeffective service delivery, and continued public acceptance. Although the factors that impact the speed and scale of RES-E deployment manifest uniquely in each power system, in the transition to high shares of variable RES-E this report identifies four critical domains and the changing drivers that will shape next-generation policy for each. These domains are introduced in Table I, and comprise the major sections of this report.«xa0less

Informing the Financing of Universal Energy Access: An Assessment of Current Flows

Energy poverty is widely recognized as a major obstacle to economic and social development and poverty alleviation. To help inform the design of appropriate and effective policies to reduce energy poverty, we present a brief analysis of the current macro financial flows in the electricity and gas distribution sectors in developing countries. We build on the methodology used to quantify the flows of investment in the climate change area. This methodology relies on national gross fixed capital formation, overseas development assistance, and foreign direct investment. These high-level and aggregated investment figures provide a sense of scale to policy-makers, but are only a small part of the information required to design financial vehicles. In addition, these figures tend to mask numerous variations between sectors and countries, as well as trends and other temporal fluctuations. Nonetheless, for the poorest countries, one can conclude that the current flows are considerably short (at least five times) of what will be required to provide a basic level of access to clean, modern energy services to the “energy poor”.

An Econometric Analysis of the Effectiveness of Development Finance for the Energy Sector

Reaching the objective of universal access to modern energy services will require large investments in infrastructure in developing countries. An important part of funding will be provided in the form of development finance and its effectiveness in producing positive impacts is crucial for this achievement. This paper presents a panel analysis of the relationship between the installed capacity of electricity generation, the development finance committed for the energy sector, and the gross fixed capital formation. We tested four models with a large dataset and found development finance to have, in most cases, a positive influence on installed base.

Development Finance for Universal Energy Access

The United Nations General Assembly declared 2012 the “International Year of Sustainable Energy for All”, officially recognising the urgent need to put energy at the centre of the global development agenda. In parallel, a strong international policy effort is being made to achieve the goal of universal energy access to modern energy services by 2030. To support these efforts, a dramatic scaling-up of financing to the energy sector will be required through official development aid, other official flows, climate financing and various private flows. In this paper we analyse the recent evolution of development policies and finance for the energy sector using both descriptive and analytical tools. We find that, although development finance for the energy sector rose considerably during the past decade, the financial flows have not been directed towards the countries with the lowest levels of energy access.

Challenges of Increased Wind Energy Penetration in Ireland

Ireland is a facing a critical time in the formation of a robust renewable energy (RE) policy, due to its size, relative isolation, grid infrastructure, and fuel import dependency. The inherent intermittency and unpredictability of wind power make its increased penetration into the electricity network an area requiring significant further analysis. This paper details the state of the Irish electricity system at the end of 2003, describes the status of the electricity market and puts into perspective the technical issues which need to be resolved to increase wind penetration on the island of Ireland.

Rethinking Energy Statecraft: United States Foreign Policy and the Changing Geopolitics of Energy

The United States Administration has an opportunity to foster a new energy statecraft based on the realities of a dynamic and rapidly-changing global energy marketplace. The geopolitical considerations of this energy transition are not well-explored. Additionally, the recent renaissance of oil and gas in the US has reinforced the alluring notion that energy independence and national energy security are the same thing. But the global nature of energy markets expose this notion as utterly misleading. A re-envisaged energy statecraft would utilize a variety of US foreign policy and multilateral tools to reform the international energy sector, protect the global energy marketplace, and spur investments in new generation and innovation. These steps require building an integrated approach to the multiple energy-security challenges.

Energy-Based Economic Development: Prioritizing Opportunities for Developing Countries

Energy-based economic development (EBED) can provide economic, social and environmental benefits related to national economic development and sustainable growth activities. As both policy and research interests in responsible mechanisms for economic development grow, EBED benefits are becoming increasingly attractive to planners in both developed and developing countries. The incentives, trade-offs, and payoffs for developing countries, however, are not well documented. To help address that gap, this paper identifies the general scope and role of EBED in a developing economy context, and outlines opportunities and challenges for decision-makers.Energy-based economic development (EBED) can provide economic, social and environmental benefits related to national economic development and sustainable growth activities. As both policy and research interests in responsible mechanisms for economic development grow, EBED benefits are becoming increasingly attractive to planners in both developed and developing countries. The incentives, trade-offs, and payoffs for developing countries, however, are not well documented. To help address that gap, this paper identifies the general scope and role of EBED in a developing economy context, and outlines opportunities and challenges for decision-makers.