Morgan Mangeas

Climate-based models for understanding and forecasting dengue epidemics.

Background Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between human-hosts, mosquito-vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. The objectives of this study were to analyze and model the relationships between climate, Aedes aegypti vectors and dengue outbreaks in Noumea (New Caledonia), and to provide an early warning system. Methodology/Principal Findings Epidemiological and meteorological data were analyzed from 1971 to 2010 in Noumea. Entomological surveillance indices were available from March 2000 to December 2009. During epidemic years, the distribution of dengue cases was highly seasonal. The epidemic peak (March–April) lagged the warmest temperature by 1–2 months and was in phase with maximum precipitations, relative humidity and entomological indices. Significant inter-annual correlations were observed between the risk of outbreak and summertime temperature, precipitations or relative humidity but not ENSO. Climate-based multivariate non-linear models were developed to estimate the yearly risk of dengue outbreak in Noumea. The best explicative meteorological variables were the number of days with maximal temperature exceeding 32°C during January–February–March and the number of days with maximal relative humidity exceeding 95% during January. The best predictive variables were the maximal temperature in December and maximal relative humidity during October–November–December of the previous year. For a probability of dengue outbreak above 65% in leave-one-out cross validation, the explicative model predicted 94% of the epidemic years and 79% of the non epidemic years, and the predictive model 79% and 65%, respectively. Conclusions/Significance The epidemic dynamics of dengue in Noumea were essentially driven by climate during the last forty years. Specific conditions based on maximal temperature and relative humidity thresholds were determinant in outbreaks occurrence. Their persistence was also crucial. An operational model that will enable health authorities to anticipate the outbreak risk was successfully developed. Similar models may be developed to improve dengue management in other countries.

Socioeconomic and environmental determinants of dengue transmission in an urban setting: An ecological study in Nouméa, New Caledonia

Background Dengue is a mosquito-borne virus that causes extensive morbidity and economic loss in many tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Often present in cities, dengue virus is rapidly spreading due to urbanization, climate change and increased human movements. Dengue cases are often heterogeneously distributed throughout cities, suggesting that small-scale determinants influence dengue urban transmission. A better understanding of these determinants is crucial to efficiently target prevention measures such as vector control and education. The aim of this study was to determine which socioeconomic and environmental determinants were associated with dengue incidence in an urban setting in the Pacific. Methodology An ecological study was performed using data summarized by neighborhood (i.e. the neighborhood is the unit of analysis) from two dengue epidemics (2008–2009 and 2012–2013) in the city of Nouméa, the capital of New Caledonia. Spatial patterns and hotspots of dengue transmission were assessed using global and local Moran’s I statistics. Multivariable negative binomial regression models were used to investigate the association between dengue incidence and various socioeconomic and environmental factors throughout the city. Principal findings The 2008–2009 epidemic was spatially structured, with clusters of high and low incidence neighborhoods. In 2012–2013, dengue incidence rates were more homogeneous throughout the city. In all models tested, higher dengue incidence rates were consistently associated with lower socioeconomic status (higher unemployment, lower revenue or higher percentage of population born in the Pacific, which are interrelated). A higher percentage of apartments was associated with lower dengue incidence rates during both epidemics in all models but one. A link between vegetation coverage and dengue incidence rates was also detected, but the link varied depending on the model used. Conclusions This study demonstrates a robust spatial association between dengue incidence rates and socioeconomic status across the different neighborhoods of the city of Nouméa. Our findings provide useful information to guide policy and help target dengue prevention efforts where they are needed most.

Regolith-geology mapping with support vector machine: A case study over weathered Ni-bearing peridotites, New Caledonia

Abstract Accurate maps of Earth’s geology, especially its regolith, are required for managing the sustainable exploration and development of mineral resources. This paper shows how airborne imaging hyperspectral data collected over weathered peridotite rocks in vegetated, mountainous terrane in New Caledonia were processed using a combination of methods to generate a regolith-geology map that could be used for more efficiently targeting Ni exploration. The image processing combined two usual methods, which are spectral feature extraction and support vector machine (SVM). This rationale being the spectral features extraction can rapidly reduce data complexity by both targeting only the diagnostic mineral absorptions and masking those pixels complicated by vegetation, cloud and deep shade. SVM is a supervised classification method able to generate an optimal non-linear classifier with these features that generalises well even with limited training data. Key minerals targeted are serpentine, which is considered as an indicator for hydrolysed peridotitic rock, and iron oxy-hydroxides (hematite and goethite), which are considered as diagnostic of laterite development. The final classified regolith map was assessed against interpreted regolith field sites, which yielded approximately 70% similarity for all unit types, as well as against a regolith-geology map interpreted using traditional datasets (not hyperspectral imagery). Importantly, the hyperspectral derived mineral map provided much greater detail enabling a more precise understanding of the regolith-geological architecture where there are exposed soils and rocks.

Analysing trends and forecasting malaria epidemics in Madagascar using a sentinel surveillance network: a web-based application

BackgroundThe use of a malaria early warning system (MEWS) to trigger prompt public health interventions is a key step in adding value to the epidemiological data routinely collected by sentinel surveillance systems.MethodsThis study describes a system using various epidemic thresholds and a forecasting component with the support of new technologies to improve the performance of a sentinel MEWS. Malaria-related data from 21 sentinel sites collected by Short Message Service are automatically analysed to detect malaria trends and malaria outbreak alerts with automated feedback reports.ResultsRoll Back Malaria partners can, through a user-friendly web-based tool, visualize potential outbreaks and generate a forecasting model. The system already demonstrated its ability to detect malaria outbreaks in Madagascar in 2014.ConclusionThis approach aims to maximize the usefulness of a sentinel surveillance system to predict and detect epidemics in limited-resource environments.

Wildfire risk for main vegetation units in a biodiversity hotspot: modeling approach in New Caledonia, South Pacific.

Wildfire has been recognized as one of the most ubiquitous disturbance agents to impact on natural environments. In this study, our main objective was to propose a modeling approach to investigate the potential impact of wildfire on biodiversity. The method is illustrated with an application example in New Caledonia where conservation and sustainable biodiversity management represent an important challenge. Firstly, a biodiversity loss index, including the diversity and the vulnerability indexes, was calculated for every vegetation unit in New Caledonia and mapped according to its distribution over the New Caledonian mainland. Then, based on spatially explicit fire behavior simulations (using the FLAMMAP software) and fire ignition probabilities, two original fire risk assessment approaches were proposed: a one-off event model and a multi-event burn probability model. The spatial distribution of fire risk across New Caledonia was similar for both indices with very small localized spots having high risk. The patterns relating to highest risk are all located around the remaining sclerophyll forest fragments and are representing 0.012% of the mainland surface. A small part of maquis and areas adjacent to dense humid forest on ultramafic substrates should also be monitored. Vegetation interfaces between secondary and primary units displayed high risk and should represent priority zones for fire effects mitigation. Low fire ignition probability in anthropogenic-free areas decreases drastically the risk. A one-off event associated risk allowed localizing of the most likely ignition areas with potential for extensive damage. Emergency actions could aim limiting specific fire spread known to have high impact or consist of on targeting high risk areas to limit one-off fire ignitions. Spatially explicit information on burning probability is necessary for setting strategic fire and fuel management planning. Both risk indices provide clues to preserve New Caledonia hot spot of biodiversity facing wildfires.

Dynamical Mapping of Anopheles darlingi Densities in a Residual Malaria Transmission Area of French Guiana by Using Remote Sensing and Meteorological Data

Local variation in the density of Anopheles mosquitoes and the risk of exposure to bites are essential to explain the spatial and temporal heterogeneities in the transmission of malaria. Vector distribution is driven by environmental factors. Based on variables derived from satellite imagery and meteorological observations, this study aimed to dynamically model and map the densities of Anopheles darlingi in the municipality of Saint-Georges de l’Oyapock (French Guiana). Longitudinal sampling sessions of An. darlingi densities were conducted between September 2012 and October 2014. Landscape and meteorological data were collected and processed to extract a panel of variables that were potentially related to An. darlingi ecology. Based on these data, a robust methodology was formed to estimate a statistical predictive model of the spatial-temporal variations in the densities of An. darlingi in Saint-Georges de l’Oyapock. The final cross-validated model integrated two landscape variables—dense forest surface and built surface—together with four meteorological variables related to rainfall, evapotranspiration, and the minimal and maximal temperatures. Extrapolation of the model allowed the generation of predictive weekly maps of An. darlingi densities at a resolution of 10-m. Our results supported the use of satellite imagery and meteorological data to predict malaria vector densities. Such fine-scale modeling approach might be a useful tool for health authorities to plan control strategies and social communication in a cost-effective, targeted, and timely manner.

Monitoring optical properties of the southwest tropical Pacific

We present data collected as part of ValHyBio- VALidation HYperspectral of a BIOgeochemical model in the South Western Tropical Lagoon of New Caledonia, a PNTS-sponsored program dedicated to chlorophyll satellite imaging and validation as affected by bathymetry. The specific goals of ValHyBio are to: - examine time-dependent oceanic reflectance in relation to dynamic surface processes, - construct field/satellite reflectance-based chlorophyll models, - investigate the feasibility of inverting the model to yield surface chlorophyll and turbidity, - validate the biogeochemical model with field/satellite observations. In situ bio-optical parameters include absorption coefficients by CDOM and particles, Secchi disk depth, backscattering coefficient, pigment concentration, suspended matter concentration, and K_dPAR. They are measured every month at 5 stations, of contrasted bathymetry and bottom reflectance, as well as at a reference station situated 4 miles offshore, and on a station over coral reefs. Remote sensing reflectance is calculated from the absorption and backscattering coefficients and compared with satellite data. SeaWIFS and MODIS AQUA match-ups collected over the period 1997-2010 (ValHySat-VALidation HYperspectral SATellite database) are used. Satellite retrievals are examined as a function of bathymetry. The feasibility of a longterm monitoring program of optical water retrieval with satellite remote sensing technique is examined in the frame of the GOPS (South Pacific Integrated Observatory).

Prediction of September–December Fire in New Caledonia (Southwestern Pacific) Using July Niño-4 Sea Surface Temperature Index

AbstractAn empirical statistical scheme for predicting September–December fires in New Caledonia in the southwestern Pacific Ocean region using a cross-validated generalized linear model has been developed for the 2000–10 period. The predictor employs July sea surface temperatures (SST) recorded over the Nino-4 box (5°S–5°N, 160°–210°E), which are closely related to austral spring (September–November) rainfall anomalies across New Caledonia. The correlation between the logarithm of observed and simulated total burned areas across New Caledonia is 0.87. A decrease in the local-scale skill (median correlation between the log of observed and simulated total burned areas in a 20-km radius around a rain gauge = 0.46) around the main town (Noumea) and its suburbs in the southwest of Grande Terre, and also in northern New Caledonia, could be associated either with a weaker climatic forcing from the Nino-4 SST index or a small-scale climatic forcing not linearly related to the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ...

Accuracy of the malaria epidemiological surveillance system data in the state of Amazonas

The Epidemiological Surveillance System for Malaria (SIVEP-Malaria) is the Brazilian governmental program that registers all information about compulsory reporting of detected cases of malaria by all medical units and medical practitioners. The objective of this study is to point out the main sources of errors in the SIVEP-Malaria database by applying a data cleaning method to assist researchers about the best way to use it and to report the problems to authorities. The aim of this study was to assess the quality of the data collected by the surveillance system and its accuracy. The SIVEP-Malaria data base used was for the state of Amazonas, Brazil, with data collected from 2003 to 2014. A data cleaning method was applied to the database to detect and remove erroneous records. It was observed that the collecting procedure of the database is not homogeneous among the municipalities and over the years. Some of the variables had different data collection periods, missing data, outliers and inconsistencies. Variables depending on the health agents showed a good quality but those that rely on patients were often inaccurate. We showed that a punctilious preprocessing is needed to produce statistically correct data from the SIVEP-Malaria data base. Fine spatial scale and multi-temporal analysis are of particular concern due to the local concentration of uncertainties and the data collecting seasonality observed. This assessment should help to enhance the quality of studies and the monitoring of the use of the SIVEP database.

Phytoplankton global mapping from space with a support vector machine algorithm

In recent years great progress has been made in global mapping of phytoplankton from space. Two main trends have emerged, the recognition of phytoplankton functional types (PFT) based on reflectance normalized to chlorophyll-a concentration, and the recognition of phytoplankton size class (PSC) based on the relationship between cell size and chlorophyll-a concentration. However, PFTs and PSCs are not decorrelated, and one approach can complement the other in a recognition task. In this paper, we explore the recognition of several dominant PFTs by combining reflectance anomalies, chlorophyll-a concentration and other environmental parameters, such as sea surface temperature and wind speed. Remote sensing pixels are labeled thanks to coincident in-situ pigment data from GeP&CO, NOMAD and MAREDAT datasets, covering various oceanographic environments. The recognition is made with a supervised Support Vector Machine classifier trained on the labeled pixels. This algorithm enables a non-linear separation of the classes in the input space and is especially adapted for small training datasets as available here. Moreover, it provides a class probability estimate, allowing one to enhance the robustness of the classification results through the choice of a minimum probability threshold. A greedy feature selection associated to a 10-fold cross-validation procedure is applied to select the most discriminative input features and evaluate the classification performance. The best classifiers are finally applied on daily remote sensing datasets (SeaWIFS, MODISA) and the resulting dominant PFT maps are compared with other studies. Several conclusions are drawn: (1) the feature selection highlights the weight of temperature, chlorophyll-a and wind speed variables in phytoplankton recognition; (2) the classifiers show good results and dominant PFT maps in agreement with phytoplankton distribution knowledge; (3) classification on MODISA data seems to perform better than on SeaWIFS data, (4) the probability threshold screens correctly the areas of smallest confidence such as the interclass regions.