Moritz Cruz

International Reserves, Effective Demand and Growth

During the last decade, developing (and some developed) economies have accumulated large amounts of international reserves, mainly for precautionary reasons. This phenomenon has been coupled with insufficient economic growth. The resources being amassed largely overwhelm protective needs, there is an excess of resources that is being wasted, and which could be utilised for alternative productive projects, namely to promote growth. If insufficient aggregate demand can largely explain low growth, it is clear that this excess of international reserves can be used to stimulate aggregate demand. This paper argues that the excess of international reserves represents a potential resource to boost growth.

El sector primario y el estancamiento económico en México

As is widely known, a primary sector consistently able to generate a production surplus is indispensable for sustained economic growth. The stagnation that began in Mexico in the 1980s has been characterized by the poor performance of the primary sector, among other elements. It is therefore interesting to explore the role this sector has played in stagnation. This work examines this topic using data for the time period 1970-2012 and some econometric techniques. The results suggest that the primary sector has made a negative contribution to economic growth, while primary sector performance has aggravated limitations on growth imposed by the current growth model.

Dealing with Financial Crises the Latin American Way: The Argentinean, Brasilian and Mexican Experiences

According to Minsky (1982, 1986), a crisis can be mitigated if, during the economy’s evolution from robustness to fragility, the central bank and fiscal authorities apply counteractive economic policies. These consist of acting as lender of last resort and running a large government deficit, thereby blunting the fall in profits. In other words, the seminal financial instability hypothesis (FIH) framework suggests an activist government may be able to block the endogenous evolution of expectations progressing to instability (see Part I and, with respect to Argentina, previous chapter). However, it is striking that during the recent financial crises in Latin America,1 such policies were, in most cases, not adopted.

International reserves, growth and effective demand

During the last decade, developing (and some developed) economies have accumulated large amounts of international reserves, mainly for precautionary reasons. This phenomenon has been coupled with moderate economic growth. The resources being amassed largely overwhelm protective needs, there is an excess of resources that is being wasted, and which could be utilised for alternative productive projects, namely to promote growth. If insufficient aggregate demand can largely explain low growth, it is clear that this excess of international reserves can be used to stimulate aggregate demand. This paper argues that the excess of international reserves represents a potential source to boost growth.