Morten Winther

Monte Carlo (Tier 2) uncertainty analysis of Danish Greenhouse gas emission inventory

The methodology and results of Monte Carlo (Tier 2) uncertainty analysis of the Danish Greenhouse Gas (GHG) inventory for base year 1990 and most recent year 2008 are presented. The analysis covers 100% of the total net Danish GHG emissions and removals, excluding LULUCF. Methodological procedures such as random sampling of uncertain parameters and parameter correlation between years are explained. Uncertainties in activity data and emission factors are given for all sectors, Input data are assumed to have log-normal probability distributions, represented by median values and 95% confidence interval uncertainties. The total uncertainty levels for GHG emissions, expressed as 95% confidence intervals, are 4.1 and 5.3% for Tier 1 and Tier 2, respectively. Uncertainties in the trend are 2.4 and 6.9% for Tier 1 and Tier 2, respectively. The most influential sources from the Tier 2 analysis to the total uncertainty are CH4 from solid waste disposal on land (4.4%), N2O from leaching (3.0%), N2O from synthetic fertilizer (2.0%), and N2O and CH4 from manure management, each with 1.6%. Tier 1 and Tier 2 uncertainties in levels and trends are comparable to seven European countries that have performed a Tier 2 uncertainty analysis.

FUTURE AIR QUALITY IN DANISH CITIES DUE TO NEW EMISSION AND FUEL QUALITY DIRECTIVES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION

The impact of new European Union (EU) vehicle emission and fuel quality directives on the future air quality in Danish cities has been modelled for comparison with new limit values in the new EU directive on assessment and management of urban air quality. The assessment is carried out for the reference year 1995 and the scenario years 2000, 2005 and 2010 for selected streets in Copenhagen, Denmark. Modelled health related substances include NO2 (NOx), O3, CO and benzene. Preliminary assessment of particulate matter is based on expert judgement. Nested modelling was applied using air quality and emission models to predict concentration levels in the regional background, urban background and in the street. Air pollution levels were predicted to decrease for all pollutants except for ozone and the results show that the levels will not exceed the new EU limit values in 2010 despite expected increases in traffic.

Verification of the Danish greenhouse gas key categories and annex II indicators

Danish emission values, implied emission factors (IEFs) and activity data (AD) for the national greenhouse gas inventory are assessed according to an updated verification procedure. Focus is on 28 Annex II indicators and 25 identified Key Categories, represented by 29 verification categories covering energy, agriculture, industry and waste. The data are based on the national greenhouse gas inventory for the years 1990 (base year), 2000 and 2010, as reported in 2012, and provided by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the European Union. Inter-country comparison and time trend consistency check of Annex II indicators, covering energy and industry, is made for EU15 countries, excluding Italy and Luxembourg. Inter-country comparison and time trend consistency check of IEFs is made for EU15 countries, excluding Luxemburg and including Norway and Switzerland and for some verification steps also including Australia, Canada, Japan, Russian Federation, USA and aggregated values for EU15 and EU27. National and inter-country verification and time trend consistency check of AD are made with data for energy consumption [(Eurostat. (2013). European commission. Retrieved January 9, 2013], agricultural statistics [Eurostat. (2013). European commission. Retrieved January 9, 2013], industrial processes (UN. (2013). United Nations Statistical Yearbook 2010 – fifty fifth issue. New York: United Nations. Retrieved October 12, 2012, from http://unstats.un.org/unsd/syb/default.htm) and waste disposal (OECD. (1997, 2004). Environmental data, compendium 1997 and 2004. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). Verification in this approach is a combination of qualitative and quantitative assessments and gives lines of evidence of the correctness of the emission inventory.