Mossad El-Metwally

Assessing surface solar irradiance and its long-term variations in the northern Africa desert climate using Meteosat images

Two databases of solar surface irradiance (SSI) derived from satellites were compared to ground measurements in Algeria, Egypt, Libya and Tunisia. We found that it was possible to accurately derive the SSI from geostationary meteorological satellites, even with a coarse spatial resolution. The two databases HelioClim-1 (HC1) and SSE exhibited similar and good performances. The bias was generally lower for SSE than for HC1; however, HC1 exhibited a smaller scattering of data compared to ground measurements (smaller standard deviation) than the SSE, allowing better performance when mapping the long-term variations in SSI. The long-term variations in SSI from 1985 to 2005 show that these four countries as a whole experienced dimming. Detailed analyses of the range of dimming at sites with long-term records and of its spatial distribution were performed. We found that the analysis of SSI from HC1 supports the findings for the individual sites. Dimming may be explained by: (1) transportation of sand dust northwards from the Sahel, (2) an increase in urbanization, and (3) an increase in cloud cover and aerosol loading.

Validation of the Surface Downwelling Solar Irradiance Estimates of the HelioClim-3 Database in Egypt

HelioClim-3 (HC3) is a database providing time series of the surface downwelling solar irradiance that are computed from images of the Meteosat satellites. This paper presents the validation results of the hourly global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI), i.e., beam irradiance at normal incidence, of versions four and five of HC3 at seven Egyptian sites. The validation is performed for all-sky conditions, as well as cloud-free conditions. Both versions of HC3 provide similar performances whatever the conditions. Another comparison is made with the estimates provided by the McClear database that is restricted to cloud-free conditions. All databases capture well the temporal variability of the GHI in all conditions, McClear being superior for cloud-free cases. In cloud-free conditions for the GHI, the relative root mean square error (RMSE) are fairly similar, ranging from 6% to 15%; both HC3 databases exhibit a smaller bias than McClear. McClear offers an overall better performance for the cloud-free DNI estimates. For all-sky conditions, the relative RMSE for GHI ranges from 10% to 22%, except one station, while, for the DNI, the results are not so good for the two stations with DNI measurements.

Monthly means of daily solar irradiation over Egypt estimated from satellite database and various empirical formulae

Monthly means of daily solar irradiation retrieved from the HelioClim-3 version 3 database (HC3v3), elaborated from Meteosat satellite images, were tested at 14 Egyptian stations along with the model of Yang, Koike, and Ye (YKY) and 10 empirical models (EMs) for the period 2004 to 2009. YKY and EMs were fitted to measurements from the period 1980 to 1989. Overall, HC3v3 exhibits a bias of 0.4 MJ m−2 (i.e. 2% of the mean of the observations – similar to the best EMs). The root mean square error (RMSE) was 1.8 MJ m−2 (9%) for HC3v3, which is lower than for most EMs. Coefficients of determination (R2) were greater than 0.9 for most models. The regression line between estimates and observations exhibits a slope of 1.01 and an intercept of 0.09 MJ m−2 for HC3v3, reflecting a better performance than other models. HC3v3 shows remarkably constant performance as a function of irradiation or cloudiness compared with EMs and YKY. In general, HC3v3 is preferred to EMs when estimating monthly means of daily solar irradiation in Egypt. It is suggested that more effort is needed towards the validation and promotion of HC3v3 before researchers and practitioners use it rather than EMs.

Improving direct normal irradiance retrieval in cloud-free, but high aerosol load conditions by using aerosol optical depth

Measurements of the global surface solar irradiation and its direct and diffuse components performed at three Egyptian sites (Aswan, Cairo, and Port Said) are used to test the ability of two published decomposition models to estimate the hourly direct normal irradiance from the measured global horizontal one in cloud-free conditions. The tested models failed to reproduce the temporal variability of the measurements, which we show to be partly induced by the large variability of the atmospheric content in aerosols. We propose a revised formulation of the decomposition models that takes into account the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 1000 nm derived from onsite measurements. It leads to a significant reduction of the bias and root mean square deviation of the original models and this at the three Egyptian sites. However, because the AOD is rarely measured at the meteorological stations, we also quantify the performance of the revised models when the AOD is either derived from the MODIS observations or obtained by the products from Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS). Probably because of their finer temporal resolution that makes them more apt to reproduce the rapid variations of the AOD, the best results are obtained with the CAMS products. Therefore, we recommend using a combination of the revised decomposition models and these CAMS products to estimate the hourly direct normal irradiance in areas such as Egypt where aerosols are ubiquitous. Note that the improved decomposition models are generally applicable in all-sky conditions, although their benefit has been demonstrated to be significant, and probably limited to, cloud-free conditions.