Motoki Nagura

Indian Ocean dipole interpreted in terms of recharge oscillator theory

In this paper we use sea surface height (SSH) derived from satellite altimetry and an analytical linear equatorial wave model to interpret the evolution of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the framework of recharge oscillator theory. The specific question we address is whether heat content in the equatorial band, for which SSH is a proxy, is a predictor of IOD development as it is for El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific. We find that, as in the Pacific, there are zonally coherent changes in heat content along the equator prior to the onset of IOD events. These changes in heat content are modulated by wind-forced westward propagating Rossby waves in the latitude band 5°–10°S, which at the western boundary reflect into Kelvin waves trapped to the equator. The biennial character of the IOD is affected by this cycling of wave energy between 5° and 10°S and the equator. Heat content changes are a weaker leading indicator of IOD sea surface temperature anomaly development than is the case for ENSO in the Pacific though because other factors are at work in generating IOD variability, one of which is ENSO forcing itself through changes in the Walker Circulation.

Pausing of the ENSO Cycle : A Case Study from 1998 to 2002

Abstract The heat balance of the surface mixed layer is analyzed at the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (0°, 140°W) in order to examine the transition from the 1998 La Nina to the 2002 El Nino. The data used are observations from the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean/Triangle Trans-Ocean Buoy Network (TAO/TRITON). Results show that interannual variation of eddy heat flux due to tropical instability waves slows the transition from La Nina to El Nino. Previous studies have described this slow transition as a pausing period of the ENSO cycle; that is, La Nina lingers and El Nino does not immediately appear despite a deepened thermocline. Heat balance analysis shows that the vertical heat advection anomaly and surface heat flux anomaly warm the mixed layer from 1999 to 2002. These warming anomalies cause the rise of the mixed layer temperature anomaly in the transition from La Nina to El Nino. In contrast, a cooling anomaly of the horizontal heat advection reduces the warming anomaly and slows down the transition fr...

The Seasonal Development of an SST Anomaly in the Indian Ocean and Its Relationship to ENSO

Abstract The seasonal development of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the Indian Ocean is investigated in relation to El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), using NOAA optimally interpolated SST and NCEP reanalysis data. The result shows that the onset season of El Nino affects the seasonal development of surface wind anomalies over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean (EEIO); these surface wind anomalies, in turn, determine whether the SST anomaly in the EEIO evolves into the eastern pole of the dipole pattern. In years when the dipole pattern develops, surface zonal wind anomalies over the EEIO switch from westerly to easterly in spring as La Nina switches to El Nino. The seasonal zonal wind over the EEIO also switches from westerly to easterly in spring, and the anomalous wind strengthens seasonal wind from winter to summer. Stronger winds and resultant thermal forcings produce the negative SST anomaly in the EEIO in winter, and its amplitude increases in summer. The SST anomaly becomes the ea...

Influence of the Reflected Rossby Waves on the Western Arabian Sea Upwelling Region

AbstractThe sea surface temperature (SST) in the western Arabian Sea upwelling region is known to influence the amount of precipitation associated with the Indian summer monsoon. Thus, understanding what determines the SST in this region is an important issue. Using outputs from an ocean general circulation model with and without strong damping in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, this study examines how the reflection of semiannual Kelvin waves at the eastern boundary of the Indian Ocean may influence the western Arabian Sea upwelling region. The downwelling Kelvin waves generated in boreal spring are reflected at the eastern boundary and reach the western equatorial Indian Ocean as reflected Rossby waves about 6 months later. The resulting westward current along the equator in the western equatorial Indian Ocean transports warmer water to the western Arabian Sea upwelling region. Thus, the SST in this region becomes colder especially in boreal fall without the reflected Rossby waves. These results ar...

Zonal momentum budget along the equator in the Indian Ocean from a high‐resolution ocean general circulation model

This study examines the zonal momentum budget along the equator in the Indian Ocean in a high-resolution ocean general circulation model. Wyrtki Jets, wind-driven eastward flows in the upper 100 m that appear typically twice per year in boreal spring and fall, are a prominent feature of the ocean circulation in this region. Our results indicate that nonlinearity associated with these jets is an important element of the zonal momentum budget, with wind driven eastward momentum advected downward into the thermocline. This advection results in annually averaged zonal currents that flow against the zonal pressure gradient in the upper 200 m, such that there is no mean subsurface undercurrent in the Indian Ocean as there is in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Zonal momentum is further distributed along the equator by zonal advection, with eastward flow substantially enhanced in the eastern basin relative to the western basin. Meridional advection, though generally weak, tends to decelerate surface eastward flow along the equator. These results contrast with those from previous idealized wind-forced model experiments that primarily emphasized the importance of vertical momentum advection. Also, beyond semiannual period fluctuations, significant momentum advection results from a broad range of interacting processes, spanning intraseasonal to interannual time scales. We conclude that proper simulation of zonal flows along the equator in the Indian Ocean, including their climatically relevant impacts on the mass and heat balance, requires accurate representation of nonlinearities that derive from a broad range of time and space scales.

Meridional Heat Advection due to Mixed Rossby Gravity Waves in the Equatorial Indian Ocean

AbstractThis study examines heat advection due to mixed Rossby gravity waves in the equatorial Indian Ocean using moored buoy observations at (0°, 80.5°E) and (0°, 90°E) and an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) output. Variability associated with mixed Rossby gravity waves is defined as that at periods of 10–30 days, where both observations and the OGCM results show high energy in meridional velocity and meridional gradient of temperature. The 10–30-day variability in meridional velocity causes convergence of heat flux onto the equator, the net effect of which amounts to 2.5°C month−1 warming at the depth of the thermocline. Detailed analysis shows that the wave structure manifested in temperature and velocity is tilted in the x–z plane, which causes the phase lag between meridional velocity and meridional temperature gradient to be a half cycle on the equator and results in sizable thermocline warming. An experiment with a linear continuously stratified model shows that the contributions of many bar...

The Role of Temperature Inversions in the Generation of Seasonal and Interannual SST Variability in the Far Northern Bay of Bengal

AbstractThe northern Bay of Bengal is characterized by freshwater supply from the Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers. The resulting shallow haline stratification and thick barrier layer lead to temperature inversions in fall and winter, that is, cool surface water overlaying warm subsurface water. This study examines sea surface temperature (SST) variability off Bangladesh and shows that temperature inversions play an essential role in generating seasonal and interannual SST variability there. Two satellite SST datasets reveal that the magnitude of SST variability has a local peak near the coast of Bangladesh on seasonal and interannual time scales. Output from a high-resolution ocean general circulation model, which is validated by satellite SST and Argo float observations, is used to calculate the mixed layer heat budget. Results show that inverted temperature profiles lead to SST warming on the seasonal time scale via heat exchange at the bottom of the mixed layer, which balances climatological atmospheric ...

Zonal Propagation of Near-Surface Zonal Currents in Relation to Surface Wind Forcing in the Equatorial Indian Ocean

AbstractZonal propagation of zonal velocity along the equator in the Indian Ocean and its relationship with wind forcing are investigated with a focus on seasonal time scales using in situ observations from four acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) and an ocean reanalysis dataset. The results show that the zonal phase speed of zonal currents varies depending on season and depth in a very complicated way in relation to surface wind forcing. Surface layer zonal velocity propagates to the west in northern spring but to the east in fall in response to zonally propagating surface zonal winds, while in the pycnocline zonal phase speed is related to wind-forced ocean wave dynamics. In the western half of the analysis domain (78°–83°E), zonal phase speed in the pycnocline is eastward all year, which is attributed to the radiation of Kelvin waves forced in the western basin. In the eastern half of the domain (80°–90°E), zonal phase speed is westward at 50- to 100-m depths in northern fall, but eastward above...

The Relationship between the Interannual Variation of the North Indian Ocean SST Induced by Surface Wind and ENSO during Boreal Summer

Abstract The relationship between the interannual variation of the surface wind in the north Indian Ocean (0°–30°N, 30°–100°E) and El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during boreal summer is investigated. The association of the surface wind with the sea surface temperature (SST) in the north Indian Ocean is evaluated. The NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, NOAA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and Reynolds SST data are used. The June–August mean of the surface wind anomaly over the north Indian Ocean is decomposed by EOF analysis, and two dominant modes are extracted. The first (second) mode shows the corresponding variation with the ENSO events maturing in the subsequent (previous) winter. The first mode has a large amplitude during the 1990s, while the amplitude of the second mode is large mainly during the 1980s. Such contrast of the amplitude of the two modes results in the temporal change of the surface wind–ENSO relationships between the two decades. The temporal characteristics of the first and second modes a...

A Wake due to the Maldives in the Eastward Wyrtki Jet

AbstractA wake due to islands in background zonal flow has been observed in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This study detects and examines a wake due to the Maldives in the eastward Wyrtki jet in the Indian Ocean. Observations by acoustic Doppler current profilers deployed east of the Maldives show semiannual variability in cross-equatorial currents, which cannot be explained by annual monsoonal wind forcing. Output from a high-resolution ocean general circulation model (OGCM) shows that the semiannual current variability is a part of a stationary wavelike pattern of meridional currents, which appears east of the Maldives concurrently with the eastward Wyrtki jet. Idealized numerical experiments are conducted using a 1.5-layer model, in which an equatorial jet driven by wind forcing or steady inflow impinges islands that are similar to the Maldives in shape. The results show the meandering of the equatorial eastward jet east of the model islands, and the resulting cross-equatorial currents have a similar p...