Muhammad A. Rahman

No Increased Rate of Acute Myocardial Infarction or Stroke Among Patients with Ankylosing Spondylitis—A Retrospective Cohort Study Using Routine Data

OBJECTIVES To examine if people with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) are at higher risk of acute myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke compared to those without AS. METHODS Primary care records were linked with all hospital admissions and deaths caused by MI or stroke in Wales for the years 1999-2010. The linked data were then stratified by AS diagnosis and survival analysis was used to obtain the incidence rate of MI and separately cerebrovascular disease (CVD)/stroke. Cox regression was used to adjust for gender and age. Logistic regression was used to examine prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, or hyperlipidemia for those with AS compared to those without. RESULTS There were 1686 AS patients (75.9% male, average age 46.1 years) compared to 1,206,621 controls (48.9% male, average age 35.9 years). Age- and gender-adjusted hazard ratios for MI were 1.28 (95% CI: 0.93 to 1.74) P = 0.12, and for CVD/stroke 1.0 (95% CI: 0.73 to 1.39) P = 0.9, in AS compared to controls. The prevalence of diabetes and hypertension, but not hyperlipidemia/hypercholesterolemia, was higher in AS. CONCLUSIONS There is no increase in the MI or CVD/stroke rates in patients with AS compared to those without AS, despite higher rates of hypertension, which may be related to nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use.

Incidence of Campylobacter and Salmonella infections following first prescription for PPI– a cohort study using routine data.

OBJECTIVES:To examine the incidence of Campylobacter and Salmonella infection in patients prescribed proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) compared with controls.METHODS:Retrospective cohort study using anonymous general practitioner (GP) data. Anonymised individual-level records from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) system between 1990 and 2010 in Wales were selected. Data were available from 1,913,925 individuals including 358,938 prescribed a PPI. The main outcome measures examined included incidence of Campylobacter or Salmonella infection following a prescription for PPI.RESULTS:The rate of Campylobacter and Salmonella infections was already at 3.1–6.9 times that of non-PPI patients even before PPI prescription. The PPI group had an increased hazard rate of infection (after prescription for PPI) of 1.46 for Campylobacter and 1.2 for Salmonella, compared with baseline. However, the non-PPI patients also had an increased hazard ratio with time. In fact, the ratio of events in the PPI group compared with the non-PPI group using the prior event rate ratio was 1.17 (95% CI 0.74–1.61) for Campylobacter and 1.00 (0.5–1.5) for Salmonella.CONCLUSIONS:People who go on to be prescribed PPIs have a greater underlying risk of gastrointestinal (GI) infection beforehand and they have a higher prevalence of risk factors before PPI prescription. The rate of diagnosis of infection is increasing with time regardless of PPI use, and there is no evidence that PPI is associated with an increase in diagnosed GI infection. It is likely that factors associated with the demographic profile of the patient are the main contributors to increased rate of GI infection for patients prescribed PPIs.

Obesity in pregnancy: a retrospective prevalence-based study on health service utilisation and costs on the NHS.

Objective To estimate the direct healthcare cost of being overweight or obese throughout pregnancy to the National Health Service in Wales. Design Retrospective prevalence-based study. Setting Combined linked anonymised electronic datasets gathered on a cohort of women enrolled on the Growing Up in Wales: Environments for Healthy Living (EHL) study. Women were categorised into two groups: normal body mass index (BMI; n=260) and overweight/obese (BMI>25; n=224). Participants 484 singleton pregnancies with available health service records and an antenatal BMI. Primary outcome measure Total health service utilisation (comprising all general practitioner visits and prescribed medications, inpatient admissions and outpatient visits) and direct healthcare costs for providing these services in the year 2011–2012. Costs are calculated as cost of mother (no infant costs are included) and are related to health service usage throughout pregnancy and 2 months following delivery. Results There was a strong association between healthcare usage cost and BMI (p<0.001). Adjusting for maternal age, parity, ethnicity and comorbidity, mean total costs were 23% higher among overweight women (rate ratios (RR) 1.23, 95% CI 1.230 to 1.233) and 37% higher among obese women (RR 1.39, 95% CI 1.38 to 1.39) compared with women with normal weight. Adjusting for smoking, consumption of alcohol, or the presence of any comorbidities did not materially affect the results. The total mean cost estimates were £3546.3 for normal weight, £4244.4 for overweight and £4717.64 for obese women. Conclusions Increased health service usage and healthcare costs during pregnancy are associated with increasing maternal BMI; this was apparent across all health services considered within this study. Interventions costing less than £1171.34 per person could be cost-effective if they reduce healthcare usage among obese pregnant women to levels equivalent to that of normal weight women.

Does the HPV vaccination programme have implications for cervical screening programmes in the UK

Highlights • Women who did not take up the HPV vaccination were less likely to attend for cervical screening.• HPV vaccinated women who attended cervical screening had the lowest proportion of cytological abnormalities detected.• Social deprivation was the main factor-affecting uptake of both HPV vaccination and cervical screening.

Physical Activity and Excess Weight in Pregnancy Have Independent and Unique Effects on Delivery and Perinatal Outcomes

Background This study examines the effect of low daily physical activity levels and overweight/obesity in pregnancy on delivery and perinatal outcomes. Methods A prospective cohort study combining manually collected postnatal notes with anonymised data linkage. A total of 466 women sampled from the Growing Up in Wales: Environments for Healthy Living study. Women completed a questionnaire and were included in the study if they had an available Body mass index (BMI) (collected at 12 weeks gestation from antenatal records) and/or a physical activity score during pregnancy (7-day Actigraph reading). The full statistical model included the following potential confounding factors: maternal age, parity and smoking status. Main outcome measures included induction rates, duration of labour, mode of delivery, infant health and duration of hospital stay. Findings Mothers with lower physical activity levels were more likely to have an instrumental delivery (including forceps, ventouse and elective and emergency caesarean) in comparison to mothers with higher activity levels (adjusted OR:1.72(95%CI: 1.05 to 2.9)). Overweight/obese mothers were more likely to require an induction (adjusted OR:1.93 (95%CI 1.14 to 3.26), have a macrosomic baby (adjusted OR:1.96 (95%CI 1.08 to 3.56) and a longer hospital stay after delivery (adjusted OR:2.69 (95%CI 1.11 to 6.47). Conclusions The type of delivery was associated with maternal physical activity level and not BMI. Perinatal outcomes (large for gestational age only) were determined by maternal BMI.

Factors associated with low fitness in adolescents – A mixed methods study

BackgroundFitness and physical activity are important for cardiovascular and mental health but activity and fitness levels are declining especially in adolescents and among girls. This study examines clustering of factors associated with low fitness in adolescents in order to best target public health interventions for young people.Methods1147 children were assessed for fitness, had blood samples, anthropometric measures and all data were linked with routine electronic data to examine educational achievement, deprivation and health service usage. Factors associated with fitness were examined using logistic regression, conditional trees and data mining cluster analysis. Focus groups were conducted with children in a deprived school to examine barriers and facilitators to activity for children in a deprived community.ResultsUnfit adolescents are more likely to be deprived, female, have obesity in the family and not achieve in education. There were 3 main clusters for risk of future heart disease/diabetes (high cholesterol/insulin); children at low risk (not obese, fit, achieving in education), children ‘visibly at risk’ (overweight, unfit, many hospital/GP visits) and ‘invisibly at risk’ (unfit but not overweight, failing in academic achievement). Qualitative findings show barriers to physical activity include cost, poor access to activity, lack of core physical literacy skills and limited family support.ConclusionsLow fitness in the non-obese child can reveal a hidden group who have high risk factors for heart disease and diabetes but may not be identified as they are normal weight. In deprived communities low fitness is associated with non-achievement in education but in non-deprived communities low fitness is associated with female gender. Interventions need to target deprived families and schools in deprived areas with community wide campaigns.

Obesity in pregnancy: infant health service utilisation and costs on the NHS

Objective To estimate the direct healthcare cost of infants born to overweight or obese mothers to the National Health Service in the UK. Design Retrospective prevalence-based study. Setting Combined linked anonymised electronic data sets on a cohort of mother–child pairs enrolled on the Growing Up in Wales: Environments for Healthy Living (EHL) study. Infants were categorised according to maternal early-pregnancy body mass index (BMI): healthy weight mother (18.5≤BMI<25 kg/m2; n=342), overweight mother (25≤BMI≤29.9 kg/m2; n=157) and obese mother (BMI≥30; n=110). Participants 609 singleton pregnancies with available health service records and an antenatal maternal BMI. Primary outcome measure Total health service utilisation and direct healthcare costs for providing these services in the year 2012–2013. Costs are calculated as cost of the infant (no maternal costs considered) and are related to health service usage from birth to age 1 year. Results A strong association existed between healthcare usage cost and BMI (p<0.001). Mean total costs were 72% higher among children born to obese mothers (rate ratio (RR) 1.72, 95% CI 1.71 to 1.73) compared with infants born to healthy weight mothers. Higher costings were attributed to a significantly greater number (RR 1.39, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.84) and duration (RR 1.55, 95% CI 1.37 to 1.74) of inpatient visits and a higher number of general practitioner visits (RR 1.10, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.16). Total mean additional resource cost was estimated at £65.13 for infants born to overweight mothers and £1138.11 for infants born to obese mothers, when compared with infants of healthy weight mothers. Conclusions Increasingly infants born to mothers with high BMIs consume additional health service resources in the first year of life; this was apparent across inpatient and general practitioner services. Considering both maternal and infant health service use, interventions that cost less than £2310 per person in reducing obesity early pregnancy could be cost-effective.

School achievement as a predictor of depression and self-harm in adolescence: linked education and health record study

Background Mental disorders in children and adolescents have an impact on educational attainment. Aims To examine the temporal association between attainment in education and subsequent diagnosis of depression or self-harm in the teenage years. Method General practitioner, hospital and education records of young people in Wales between 1999 and 2014 were linked and analysed using Cox regression. Results Linked records were available for 652 903 young people and of these 33 498 (5.1%) developed depression and 15 946 (2.4%) self-harmed after the age of 12 but before the age of 20. Young people who developed depression over the study period were more likely to have achieved key stage 1 (age 7 years) but not key stage 2 (age 11) (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.79, 95% CI 0.74–0.84) milestones, indicating that they were declining in academic attainment during primary school. Conversely, those who self-harmed were achieving as well as those who did not self-harm in primary school, but showed a severe decline in their attainment during secondary school (HR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.68–0.78). Conclusions Long-term declining educational attainment in primary and secondary school was associated with development of depression in the teenage years. Self-harm was associated with declining educational attainment during secondary school only. Incorporating information on academic decline with other known risk factors for depression/self-harm (for example stressful life events, parental mental health problems) may improve risk profiling methods.

Educational Attainment at Age 10–11 Years Predicts Health Risk Behaviors and Injury Risk During Adolescence

Purpose To examine the effect of educational attainment in primary school on later adolescent health. Methods Education data attainments at age 7 and 11 were linked with (1) primary and secondary care injury consultation/admissions and (2) the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children survey. Cox regression was carried out to examine if attainment in primary school predicts time to injury in adolescence. Results Pupils that achieve attainment at age 7 but not at age 11 (i.e., declining attainment over time in primary school) are more likely to have an injury during adolescence. These children are also more likely to self-report drinking in adolescence. Conclusions Interventions aimed at children with declining attainment in primary school could help to improve adolescent health.

Trajectory of achievement in primary school and development of mental health conditions in adolescence: a cohort study using linked health and education data

Abstract Background Little is known about how mental health in primary school affects subsequent adolescent mental health. This study examined the effect of education in primary school on development of mental health conditions. Methods This cohort study of all children in Wales between 1999 and 2014 used routine data from general practice and hospital data linked with education records held in the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) databank. Cox regression was used, controlling for sex, deprivation, conduct disorder, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, and learning difficulty. Findings Health records of 652 903 children (319 839 boys, 307 584 girls) were linked with educational records: between the ages of 12 and 21 years, 33 498 children (5·1%) developed depression, 15 946 (2·4%) self-harmed, and 2183 (0·3%) had eating disorders. 10 458 boys (3·2%) and 23 040 girls (7·5%) had diagnosed depression during their childhood, and 10 550 boys (3·3%) and 21 278 girls (6·9%) were given an antidepressant. Children who developed depression were more likely than those not developing depression to have passed key stage 1 (age 7 years) (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1·19, 95% CI 1·08–1·30) but not key stage 2 (age 11) (0·76, 0·69–0·83), indicating that they were declining in primary school education. Conversely those who self-harmed (4736 boys [1·5%], 11 210 girls [3·6%]) were achieving as well as those who did not self-harm (1·02, 0·92–1·12). In children with an eating disorder, only female sex was associated with development of the disorder (10·5, 7·55–14·5), and educational achievement was not significantly different from those without the disorder (1·16, 0·82–1·63). However, at key stage 3 (age 14) children with eating disorders achieved well in secondary school (1·42, 1·2–1·7). Interpretation The trajectory of achievement in primary school is very different for children who develop depression, self-harm, or eating disorders. Those who developed depression were deprived children declining in primary school education; those who self-harmed were deprived children improving in primary educational achievement. However, eating disorders were not associated with education or deprivation in primary school but associated with high achievement in secondary school. Funding National Centre for Population Health and Wellbeing Research.