Muhammad Mustafa

Dynamics of the yen-dollar real exchange rate and the US-Japan real trade balance

This paper employs cointegration and error correction models to examine the dynamics of the yen-dollar real exchange rate and the US-Japan real trade balance. It uses quarterly data from 1973.I-1993.IV. The unit root tests reveal non-stationarity in both the variables. The ADF test fails to affirm any long-run association between the yen-dollar real exchange rate and the US-Japan real trade balance. Also, there is evidence of bidirectional short-run Granger causality between these two variables with mutual feedbacks.

Growth and Employment Empirics of Bangladesh

This paper applies multivariate cointegration methodology and vector error-correction models to investigate the factors that are likely to contribute to economic growth and employment in Bangladesh. This paper concludes that exports, FDI and external remittances enhance both economic growth and employment in the short run. But the exchange rate depreciation seems contractionary, although the empirical evidence lacks abundance of clarity and robustness.

The dancing of the real exchange rate of US dollar and the US real trade balance

The current study seeks to re-examine a possible long-run dynamic relationship between the trade-weighted real exchange rate of US dollar and US real trade balance by using the well-known cointegration methodology. The sample period includes observations from the second quarter of 1973 through the second quarter of 1992. The unit root test reveals that the trade-weighted real exchange value of dollar and the US real trade balance are individually nonstationary in levels. The ADF test concludes that there is no systematic long-run association between these two variables even under the flexible exchange rate system.

Cointegration between US short-term and long-term interest rates (both nominal and real)

The paper explores a possible long-run relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates (both nominal and real) within the standard and relatively new cointegration framework. It employs quarterly data from 1953 to 1992. The empirical results, in general, weigh heavily in support of the market segmentation hypothesis by rejecting the market expectations hypothesis of nominal and real interest rate term structures from a long-run perspective. However, the findings do not preclude the possibility of short-run dynamics between the short-term and long-term interest rates both in nominal and real terms

Dynamic linkages and Granger causality between short-term US corporate bond and stock markets

It is sought to investigate a possible long-run association and Granger causality between US stock and short-term corporate bond markets by applying the well-known cointegration and error-correction methodology. The unit root tests reveal that the rates of return from S&P 500 and short-term US corporate bond yields are non-stationary in levels. The ADF test finds them cointegrated at 1, 5 and 10% levels of significance. The estimated error-correction model confirms a long-run relationship between these two markets. The short-term US corporate bond market appears to Granger-cause the US stock market in the long run. Furthermore, there appears to be a two-way short-run Granger causality and reversible feedback between these two markets.

Growths in US housing starts, real consumer debt, real GDP and the long-term real interest rate: a vector cointegration analysis

The primary purpose of this paper is to explore the long-run association among growths in US housing starts, real consumer debt, real GDP and the long-term real interest rate. To carry out this exploratory work, Johansen and Juselius (1990) vector cointegration procedure is applied. Monthly data from January 1960 through April 1993 are employed. The empirical results suggest that each time series in levels is non-stationary. Also, a general conclusion emerges which suggests that all these macroeconomic variables possess a long-run interactive inter-relationship.

An error-correction model of the demand for equity mutual funds in the U.S. 1973–1994

The purpose of this paper is to estimate an error-correction model of the U.S. demand for equity mutual funds. Using annual data for the period 1973–1994, this study finds that changes in the demand for equity mutual funds have been significantly influenced by the changes in the rate of return on equity mutual funds and savings deposits, as well as by the growth in income over the long run.

Integration and causality in US mortgage and T-bond markets

This paper re-examines the issues of integration and causality in US mortgage and T-bond markets by using the well-known cointegration and error correction methodology. It employs monthly data from January 1980 through June 1993. The unit root test reveals nonstationarity in 30-year nominal mortgage rates and 30-year nominal T-bond yields. The DF tests affirm cointegration between these two variables. The estimates of the associated error correction model depict unidirectional long-run as well as short-run Granger causality that runs from the 30-year T-bond market to the 30-year mortgage market. Reversible short-run feedbacks are also observed between the two markets.

Capacity utilization in the USA and inflation: testing for cointegration and Granger causality

This paper investigates the long-run and short-run dynamics between capacity utilization and inflation in the USA by using cointegration and error-correction models. It employs monthly data from January 1984 to December 1994. Although each variable in level is found non-stationary by unit root tests, ADF tests and error-correction models fail to confirm any long-run association between capacity utilization and inflation. Despite a lack of cointegration, error-correction models have been utilized to identify Granger causality that has been found to run from total industrial capacity utilization to inflation.

Remittances–Exchange Rate Nexus: The U.S.–Mexico Case

This paper studies the long-run and short-run dynamics between emigrants’ nominal inbound remittances in U.S. dollar term to Mexico and the Peso-Dollar nominal exchange rates. Relatively high frequency monthly data from January 1987 through December 2008 are employed. Given the comparatively short sample period, the monthly data partially compensate for implementation of standard cointegration methodology. Empirically, both variables are found nonstationary in levels with I(1) behavior in terms of DF-GLS, Ng-Perron, and KPSS tests. The changes in exchange rate exert more pronounced influences on the changes of remittances in the long run as compared to the converse. Significant short-run interactive net positive feedback effects between the variables are also evidenced. On a net basis, Mexico should pursue an exchange rate policy that would promote remittance inflows from the USA for potential net economic gains without much apprehension of the so called Dutch Disease.