Muhammad Shafique

Impact of DEM source and resolution on topographic seismic amplification

Abstract The impact of topographic attributes on the uneven distribution of seismic response and associated devastation has frequently been observed and documented during seismic events, but has rarely been investigated at a regional scale. Existing numerical and experimental techniques applied to explore the impact of topographic attributes in the aggravation of seismic response, have been limited to isolated and/or synthetic hills and ridges. Predicting the realistic regional impact of topographic seismic response is strongly dependent on the resolution and accuracy of regional topographic information. This study evaluates the topographic attributes and seismic parameters computed from multi-resolution and source DEMs, to investigate the impact of data source and resolution on the derived topographic seismic response. Methodologies are developed to readily derive the spatial distribution of relevant topographic attributes and seismic parameters, utilizing the multi-resolution and source DEMs. The impact of DEM source and resolution on slope gradient, relative height of terrain and shear wave velocity ( V S 30 ) are addressed. It is observed that, even though, relatively coarse resolution DEMs underestimate the critical sites of steep slope gradient and the lower V S 30 zones, this has limited impact on the derived normalized topographic aggravation factor. The free and easily accessible DEMs provide an opportunity for reasonable prediction of topographic seismic response, especially in near-real time. The slope gradient is observed to be the most sensitive topographic attribute to amplified seismic response, followed by the relative height.

Spatial assessment of forest cover and land-use changes in the Hindu-Kush mountain ranges of northern Pakistan

Anthropogenic activities and natural processes are continuously altering the mountainous environment through deforestation, forest degradation and other land-use changes. It is highly important to assess, monitor and forecast forest cover and other land-use changes for the protection and conservation of mountainous environment. The present study deals with the assessment of forest cover and other land-use changes in the mountain ranges of Dir Kohistan in northern Pakistan, using high resolution multi-temporal SPOT-5 satellite images. The SPOT-5 satellite images of years 2004, 2007, 2010 and 2013 were acquired and classified into land-cover units. In addition, forest cover and land-use change detection map was developed using the classified maps of 2004 and 2013. The classified maps were verified through random field samples and Google Earth imagery (Quick birds and SPOT-5). The results showed that during the period 2004 to 2013 the area of forest land decreased by 6.4%, however, area of range land and agriculture land have increased by 22.1% and 2.9%, respectively. Similarly, barren land increased by 1.1%, whereas, area of snow cover/glacier is significantly decreased by 21.3%. The findings from the study will be useful for forestry and landscape planning and can be utilized by the local, provincial and national forest departments; and REDD+ policy makers in Pakistan.

Fabrication of Niclosamide loaded solid lipid nanoparticles: in vitro characterization and comparative in vivo evaluation

Abstract Niclosamide (NCS) is an oral anthelminthic drug having low solubility and hence low bioavailability. Current investigation shows an approach to fabricate solid lipid nanoparticles (SLNs) of NCS and evaluated for pharmaceutical, in vitro and in vivo characterization. NFM-3 showed particle size 204.2 ± 2.2 nm, polydispersity index 0.328 ± 0.02 and zeta potential –33.16 ± 2 mV. Entrapment efficiency and drug loading capacity were 84.4 ± 0.02% and 5.27 ± 0.03%, respectively. Scanning electron microscopy image indicated that particles were nanoranged. DSC and P-XRD results showed change in physicochemical properties of NCS. FT-IR spectra confirmed compatibility between NCS and excipients. The drug release profile showed sustained release (93.21%) of NCS in 12 h. Different kinetic models showed zero-order kinetics and Case-II transport mechanism. Study showed maximum stability at refrigerated temperature. In vivo pharmacokinetic study showed 2.15-fold increase in NCS peak plasma concentration as solid lipid nanoparticle formulation (NFM-3) compared to commercial product while relative bioavailability was 11.08. Results including in vitro and in vivo release studies of NCS confirmed that SLNs system is suitable to improve oral delivery of NCS with increased aqueous solubility, permeability and finally bioavailability.

Landslide inventory and susceptibility modelling using geospatial tools, in Hunza-Nagar valley, northern Pakistan

A comprehensive landslide inventory and susceptibility maps are prerequisite for developing and implementing landslide mitigation strategies. Landslide susceptibility maps for the landslides prone regions in northern Pakistan are rarely available. The Hunza-Nagar valley in northern Pakistan is known for its frequent and devastating landslides. In this paper, we have developed a landslide inventory map for Hunza-Nagar valley by using the visual interpretation of the SPOT-5 satellite imagery and mapped a total of 172 landslides. The landslide inventory was subsequently divided into modelling and validation data sets. For the development of landslide susceptibility map seven discrete landslide causative factors were correlated with the landslide inventory map using weight of evidence and frequency ratio statistical models. Four different models of conditional independence were used for the selection of landslide causative factors. The produced landslides susceptibility maps were validated by the success rate and area under curves criteria. The prediction power of the models was also validated with the prediction rate curve. The validation results shows that the success rate curves of the weight of evidence and the frequency models are 82% and 79%, respectively. The prediction accuracy results obtained from this study are 84% for weight of evidence model and 80% for the frequency ratio model. Finally, the landslide susceptibility index maps were classified into five different varying susceptibility zones. The validation and prediction result indicates that the weight of evidence and frequency ratio model are reliable to produce an accurate landslide susceptibility map, which may be helpful for landslides management strategies.

Applications of variogram modeling to electrical resistivity data for the occurrence and distribution of saline groundwater in Domail Plain, northwestern Himalayan fold and thrust belt, Pakistan

This paper studies electrical resistivity dataset acquired for a groundwater study in the Domail Plain in the northwestern Himalayan section of Pakistan. Through a combination of geostatistical analysis, geophysical inversion and visualization techniques, it is possible to re-model and visualize the single dimension resistivity data into 2D and 3D space. The variogram models are utilized to extend the interpretation of the data and to distinguish individual lithologic units and the occurrence of saline water within the subsurface. The resistivity data has been calibrated with the lithological logs taken from the available boreholes. As such the alluvial system of the Domail Plain has formed during episodes of local tectonic activity with fluvial erosion and deposition yielding coarse sediments with high electrical resistivities near to the mountain ranges and finer sediments with medium to low electrical resistivities which tend to settle in the basin center. Thus a change is depositional setting happened from basin lacustrine environment to flash flooding during the Himalayan orogeny. The occurrence of rock salt in the northern mountains has imparted a great influence on the groundwater quality of the study area. The salt is dissolved by water which infiltrates into the subsurface through the water channels. Variogram aided gridding of resistivity data helps to identify the occurrence and distribution of saline water in the subsurface.

Earthquake Hazards and Risk Mitigation in Pakistan

Earthquakes proved to be the most devastating natural disaster with a high mortality rate and wide spread destruction. Earthquake induced ground shaking plays a key role in excessive ground deformation and infrastructure damage, and in triggering secondary hazards such as landslides, flooding, tsunamis, fire and liquefaction. The intensity and duration of an earthquake induced ground shaking depends on magnitude, depth of hypocenter, medium traversed by seismic waves; and physical and geotechnical characteristics of the site. Tools of GIS and remote sensing are frequently and effectively used for earthquake hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment and assist in developing risk reduction strategies. Pakistan is located in one of the most earthquake prone region with many devastating earthquakes in the past and active tectonic shows that there might be more earthquakes in future. Hence it is crucial to perform earthquake hazard assessment across the country and subsequently develop and implement strategies for earthquake risk mitigation. Subsequent to facing extensive devastation by the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, the government has realized the importance of earthquake management and hence encouraged the scientific research aiming for earthquake hazard assessment and strategies for risk reduction. Moreover, organizations have been established mainly dedicated for natural disaster management. However, the magnitude of prevailing earthquake induced risk needs detailed earthquake hazard assessment, design earthquake resistant structures; implement the seismic building codes and public awareness to adopt for earthquake risk reduction.

An international program on Silk Road Disaster Risk Reduction–a Belt and Road initiative (2016–2020)

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a Chinese national strategy which calls for cooperative economic, political and cultural exchange at the global level along the ancient Silk Road. The overwhelming natural hazards located along the belt and road bring great challenges to the success of BRI. In this framework, a 5-year international program was launched to address issues related to hazards assessment and disaster risk reduction (DRR). The first workshop of this program was held in Beijing with international experts from over 15 countries. Risk conditions on Belt and Road Countries (BRCs) have been shared and science and technology advancements on DRR have been disseminated during the workshop. Under this program, six task forces have been setup to carry out collaborative research works and three prioritized study areas have been established. This workshop announced the launching of this program which involved partners from different countries including Pakistan, Nepal, Russia, Italy, United Kingdom, Sri Lanka and Tajikistan. The program adopted the objectives of Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 and United Nation Sustainable Development Goals 2030 and was implemented to assess disaster risk in BRCs and to propose suitable measures for disaster control which can be appropriate both for an individual country and for specific sites. This paper deals with the outcomes of the workshop and points out opportunities for the near future international cooperation on this matter.

Evaluating glacier dynamics using temporal remote sensing images: a case study of Hunza Valley, northern Pakistan

AbstractGlaciers are the largest freshwater repository on the earth surface. Northern Pakistan is covered with some of the largest midlatitude glaciers in the world. Most of the recent studies on the region lead to contradictory results that glaciers in the Karakoram ranges have shown either advancement, retreat or stable behaviors and therefore coin the term “Karakoram anomaly.” In the present study, temporal Landsat satellite images, acquired in the years of 1977, 1999, 2001, 2007, 2009 and 2014, were used to evaluate the temporal dynamics of the selected glaciers in the Hunza Valley, northern Pakistan, including the Batura, Passu, Ghulkin and Gulmit. The glaciers outlines were extracted using NDSI and slope gradient, followed by manual editing. The Landsat-derived glacier inventories were verified through the fine-resolution WorldView-2 satellite image and field observations. Evaluating the temporal glacier inventories reveals that the selected glaciers are retreating; however, the melting rate is varying depending on the supra-glacier debris cover. The melting or advancing of glacier is also influenced by the mean annual temperature and precipitation records. The study should assist in predicting the future climate of the region.

Fabrication, Characterization, and In Vivo Evaluation of Famotidine Loaded Solid Lipid Nanoparticles for Boosting Oral Bioavailability

Famotidine as H2 receptor has antagonistic effects on gastric secretion. Unfortunately, its hydrophobic nature contributes to its variable and poor oral bioavailability. In the current study efforts are being made to fabricate famotidine loaded solid lipid nanoparticles with narrow size distribution. Prepared nanoformulations were pharmaceutically evaluated to confirm the desired boosted oral bioavailability. Famotidine loaded nanoformulation (FFSe-4) showed particle size  nm, polydispersity index , zeta potential − mV, entrapment efficiency %, and drug loading capacity %. Drug-excipients compatibility was confirmed by Fourier transformed infrared spectroscopy. Scanning electron microscopy confirmed spherical shaped, nanosized particles. Differential scanning calorimetry and powder X-ray diffractometry confirmed the change in crystalline nature. Prepared nanoformulation was more stable at refrigerated temperature. In vitro study showed that drug release time is proportional to drug pay load and followed zero order kinetics. Release exponent () confirmed non-Fickian-diffusion mechanism for drug release. In vivo pharmacokinetic studies showed 2.06-fold increase in oral bioavailability of famotidine dispersed in solid lipid nanoparticles compared to commercial product. These results authenticate solid lipid nanoparticles as drug delivery system and propose prolonged release with improved oral bioavailability for famotidine.

Impact of mesh and DEM resolutions in SEM simulation of 3D seismic response

This study shows that the resolution of a digital elevation model (DEM) and model mesh strongly influences 3D simulations of seismic response. Topographic heterogeneity scatters seismic waves and causes variation in seismic response (am-plification and deamplification of seismic amplitudes) at the Earth’s surface. DEM resolution influences the accuracy and detail with which the Earth’s surface can be represented and hence affects seismic simulation studies. Apart from the spatial resolution of a DEM, the mesh resolution, adopted in the creation of a 3D spectral element meshing, also changes the detailedness of surface topography. Working with high-resolution data is in most cases not possible on a regional scale because of its costliness in terms of time, money, and computation. In this study, we evaluate how low the resolution of DEM and mesh can become before the results are significantly affected. We simulated models with different combinations of DEM and mesh resolutions. The peak ground displacement (PGD) obtained from these simulations was compared with the PGD of the model with the finest mesh and DEM resolution. Our results show that any mesh or DEM resolution of 540 m or coarser will give unrealistic results. These results are valid for similar terrains as studied here and might not be directly applicable to regions with significantly different topography.