Murali Adhikari

PHOSPHORUS-BASED MANAGEMENT OF BROILER LITTER AS AGRICULTURAL FERTILIZER

We calculated the profitability of using broiler litter as a source of plant nutrients using the phosphorus consistent litter application rule. The cost saving by using litter is 37% over the use of chemical fertilizer alone to meet the nutrient needs of major crops grown in Alabama. In the optimal solution, only a few routes of all the possible routes developed were used for interand intra-county litter hauling. If litter is not adopted as the sole source of crop nutrients, the best environmental policy may be to pair the phosphorus consistent rule with taxes, marketable permits, and subsidies. Excessive manure production and lack of its proper disposal have been a serious concern in regions where industrialized productions of livestock and poultry dominate the agricultural sector [1]. This is no where more evident than in the southeastern states of the United States (for example, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, as well as West Virginia and Maryland) where broiler industry contributes significantly to the agricultural revenue as well as litter production. High nutrient content, especially nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium

Low carbohydrate information, consumer health preferences and market demand of fruits in the United States

We assessed the impacts of low carbohydrate information on the market demand of US fruits using almost ideal demand system, Rotterdam and double-log models. Results indicated significant positive impacts of low carbohydrate information on the market demand of grape and lemon. However, a significant negative effect exists on market demand of apples and bananas. Majority of the estimated elasticities are consistent in terms of expected sign and magnitude across all models.

Impact of low carbohydrate information on vegetable demands in the United States

An almost ideal demand system was estimated to examine the impacts of low carbohydrate information on the demand of vegetables in the United States. Analysis was extended to examine the performance of alternative carbohydrate information indices. Results show significant impacts of low carbohydrate information across all included vegetables. Results indicated the superiority of the general and weighted carbohydrate information index specifications.

Assessing the impacts of stochastic trend in crop acreage supply response model

This paper demonstrates the need to revisit the way a technical change has been incorporated in a crop acreage supply response model. Three different versions of technological change were introduced and compared: no trend, deterministic trend, and stochastic trend. The results confirm the need to treat a technology variable as a stochastic trend for better results in crop acreage supply response model specifications.

Modelling swine supply response using a structural time series approach

Swine supply response was analyzed using a structural time series model (STSM) with both seasonal and yearly effects introduced stochastically. Swine production is divided into four production phases. Parameters of each phase were then estimated using a structural time series model. Out-of-sample forecasting robustness of the STSM was compared against a commonly used deterministic trend and deterministic seasonally (DTDS) using root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error criteria. The STSM model produced lower RMSE and MPE values than those obtained using a DTDS modeling approach.

Dairy supply response under stochastic trend and seasonality

Developing a dairy supply model assuming deterministic trend and seasonality a priori could lead to model misspecification. A structural time series methodology was used to examine the role of stochastic trend and seasonality in a dairy supply response model using quarterly time series data. Four versions of a time-linked model of dairy supply response were compared. A dairy supply model with stochastic seasonality and deterministic trend performed the best, as evidenced by diagnostic tests, goodness-of-fit measures, and forecasting accuracy. Our analysis suggested against the classic approach of incorporating the deterministic seasonality component in dairy supply models.

Water Resources Planning for Broiler Production: Econometric and Time Series Analysis

A profit maximization model and an ARIMA model were developed to assess and plan for future water demand need in broiler production. In planning the future water demand, successive stages of broiler production decisions were taken into consideration. The forecasted numbers of broilers from profit maximizing and ARIMA models depart significantly from the commonly used United States Geological Survey physical model. Analysis indicates 15% slippage in water demand forecasting when the role of economic variables is not considered. We also found that an appropriate lag structure can fully capture the information used in structural models, assuming no structural change.