Murat Karacasu

Estimating the causes of traffic accidents using logistic regression and discriminant analysis

Factors that affect traffic accidents have been analysed in various ways. In this study, we use the methods of logistic regression and discriminant analysis to determine the damages due to injury and non-injury accidents in the Eskisehir Province. Data were obtained from the accident reports of the General Directorate of Security in Eskisehir; 2552 traffic accidents between January and December 2009 were investigated regarding whether they resulted in injury. According to the results, the effects of traffic accidents were reflected in the variables. These results provide a wealth of information that may aid future measures toward the prevention of undesired results.

A Study on the Rheological Properties of Recycled Rubber-Modified Asphalt Mixtures

Using waste rubber in asphalt mixes has become a common practice in road construction. This paper presents the results of a study on the rheological characteristics of rubber-modified asphalt (RMA) concrete under static and dynamic loading conditions. A number of static and dynamic creep tests were conducted on RMA mix specimens with different rubber sizes and contents, and a series of resonant column tests were conducted to evaluate the shear modulus and damping values. To simulate the stress-strain response of traffic-induced loading, the measurements were taken for different confining pressures and strain levels. The results of the study indicated that rubber modification increases stiffness and damping ratio, making it a very attractive material for use in road construction. However the grain size of the rubber is very important. Although RMA may cost up to 100% more than regular asphalt, the advantages it brings, such as an increased service life of the road and proper waste utilization contributing to a more sustainable infrastructure, may justify the added cost.

Use of asphalt plant residue in hot mix asphalt

Environmental solid wastes increase more and more as a result of the industrial waste production day by day. Management of the solid wastes is the thrust area for researchers. In this study, the effects of asphalt plant residue (APR) on the properties of hot mix asphalt (HMA)s are investigated. APR was added into the asphalt concrete in 25, 50 and 100% by weight of the filler. In order to determine optimum bitumen content, Marshall Design procedure was applied. Optimum bitumen content (OBC) values were obtained less than control specimen (CS). APR specimens have shown little increase in Marshall stability and little decrease in flow except for APR-50 in comparison to the CS. All APR specimens have higher MQ than that of the control mixture. Although there are no meaningful differences between CS and APR specimens, APR can be used as a filler aggregate in asphalt mixtures. Use of APR will enable recycling of an environmental waste as well as providing some benefits in asphalt concrete performance. Thus, resources will be used more effectively all over the world as part of sustainability.

Optimisation of Marshall Design criteria with central composite design in asphalt concrete

ABSTRACT In this study, optimum bitumen content (OBC), an important parameter on Marshall Design is described with a mathematical model by using statistical design method. The effects of independent variables such as number of blows, temperature, additive rate and bitumen content are analysed. The simultaneous optimisation of the dependent variables such as practical specific gravity, voids, voids of filled with asphalt cement, Marshall stability, flow and Marshall coefficient is determined with the central composite design. The optimum conditions are detected with 70 blows, temperature of 160°C, additive amount of 10% and OBC of 4.484%. The desirability function is applied to determine local optimisation points. Following the model application, practical specific gravity is estimated to be 2.418 g/cm3 with voids of 4%, voids of filled asphalt of 71.74%, Marshall stability of 1138.4 kgf under optimum conditions. While it is necessary to pour 126 samples to achieve a result with these variables in Marshall Design under normal conditions, the results are achieved just by pouring 30 samples thanks to the models established.

Traffic Perception in Eskişehir Province

With the rapid growth of the world population that is becoming increasingly the use of motor vehicles. Also, due to technological advances that have become more accessible to a case having a motor vehicle. However, these developments have led to the emergence of some problems. Especially, highways of serious accidents occurred in transportation, to investigate measures that can be taken and identification of the problem is an important issue in Turkey. First, you need to identify the individuals perception of traffic. This process is important to identify gaps in the application. This study was planned and carried out in order to measure the traffic perceptions of living in Eskisehir Province. For this purpose, a questionnaire aimed at determining demographic and socio-economic characteristics and attitudes of the individuals perception of traffic was prepared. Data sets were analysed by factor analysis known as one of the most known multivariate statistical analysis techniques. The result of analysis obtained over the dimensions, traffic perceptions of individuals in Eskisehir Province modelled. Looking for solutions for the traffic problem in institutions of the Eskisehir Province has obtained a series of results that could benefit in creating attitudes and behaviours about traffic.

Curve Estimation of Number of People Killed in Traffic Accidents in Turkey

One or more than one vehicle in motion on the highway involving death, injury and loss events which have resulted are called accidents. As a result of increasing population and traffic density, traffic accidents continue to increase and this leads to both human losses and harm to the economy. In addition, also leads to social problems. As a result of increasing population and traffic density, traffic accidents continue to increase and this leads to both human losses and harm to the economy. In addition to this, it also leads to social problems. As a result of traffic accidents, millions of people die year by year. A great majority of these accidents occur in developing countries. One of the most important tasks of transportation engineers is to reduce traffic accidents by creating a specific system. For that reason, statistical information about traffic accidents which occur in the past years should be organized by versed people. Factors affecting the traffic accidents are analyzed in various ways. In this study, modelling the number of people killed in traffic accidents in Turkey is determined. The dead people were modelled using curve fitting method with the number of people killed in traffic accidents in Turkey dataset between 1990 and 2014. It was also predicted the number of dead people by using various models for the future. It is decided that linear model is suitable for the estimates.