Murray Turoff

Insights from a Simulation Model of Disaster Response: Generalization and Action Points

In a prior paper we presented a system dynamics model that simulates responder behavior in a Norwegian landslide. The model shows how a set of vicious feedback loops caused by following standard organizational procedures that do not fit the disaster situation initially increases errors in response. Eventually learning and sensemaking in an improvisation/experimentation process leads to new emergent dynamics whereby the loops act virtuously. In this paper we aim to generalize this initial study by explaining in more detail how the model can describe large scale disaster responses of different types and how it relates to the wider disaster response literature. We discuss what types of levers, such as policies and training, are available to decrease the vicious loops and speed the transition from errors to successful innovation, and describe future research directions.