Mustafa Kemal Cambazoglu

Inflow of shelf waters into the Mississippi Sound and Mobile Bay estuaries in October 2015

Abstract. The exchange of coastal waters between the Mississippi Sound (MSS), Mobile Bay, and Mississippi Bight is an important pathway for oil and pollutants into coastal ecosystems. This study investigated an event of strong and persistent inflow of shelf waters into MSS and Mobile Bay during October 2015 by combining in situ measurements, satellite ocean color data, and ocean model predictions. Navy Coastal Ocean Model predicted high-salinity shelf waters continuously flowing into the estuarine system and forecasted low-salinity waters trapped inside the estuaries which did not flush out until the passage of tropical cyclone Patricia’s remnants in late October. The October 2015 chlorophyll-a anomaly was significantly low inside and outside the MSS for the 2003 to 2015 time series. Similar low-chlorophyll-a anomalies were only seen in 2003. The October 2015 mean in situ salinities were up to 8 psu higher than mean from 2007 to 2015, and some estuarine stations showed persistent salinities above 30 psu for almost a month in agreement with model predictions. October 2015 was associated with low fall seasonal discharge, typical of fall season, and wind which was persistently out of the east to southeast [45–180]°. These persistent wind conditions were linked to the observed anomalous conditions.

Advection of Karenia brevis blooms from the Florida Panhandle towards Mississippi coastal waters

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) of Karenia brevis have been documented along coastal waters of every state bordering the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). Some Gulf Coast locations, such as Florida and Texas, suffer from recurrent intense and spatially large blooms, while others such as Mississippi seem to rarely observe them. The main objective of this work is to understand the dynamics that led to the K. brevis bloom in Mississippi coastal waters in fall 2015. Blooms of K. brevis from the Florida Panhandle region are often advected westward towards the Mississippi-Alabama coast; however there is interannual variability in their presence and intensity in Mississippi coastal waters. The 2015 K. brevis bloom was compared to the 2007 Florida Panhandle K. brevis bloom, which showed a westward advection pattern, but did not intensify along the Mississippi coast. Cell counts and flow cytometry were obtained from the Mississippi Department of Marine Resources, Alabama Department of Public Health, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission and The University of Southern Mississippi. Ocean color satellite imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer onboard the Aqua satellite was used to detect and delineate the blooms in 2007 and 2015. Two different regional applications of NCOM-Navy Coastal Ocean Model (1-km resolution NCOM-GoM/Gulf of Mexico and 6-km resolution NCOM-IASNFS/Intra Americas Sea Nowcast Forecast System) were used to understand the circulation and transport pathways. A Lagrangian particle tracking software was used to track the passive movement of particles released at different locations for both bloom events. Ancillary data (e.g., nutrients, wind, salinity, river discharge) from local buoys, monitoring stations and coincident oceanographic cruises were also included in the analysis. The blooms of K. brevis reached the Mississippi coast both years; however, the bloom in 2007 lasted only a few days and there is no evidence that it entered the Mississippi Sound. Two major differences were observed between both years. First, circulation patterns in 2015 resulting from an intense westward-northwestward that persisted until December allowed for continuous advection, whereas this pattern was not evident in 2007. Second, local river discharge was elevated throughout late fall 2015 while 2007 was below the average. Thus, elevated discharge may have provided sufficient nutrients for bloom intensification. These results illustrate the complex, but important interactions in coastal zones. Further, they emphasize the importance in establishing comprehensive HAB monitoring programs, which facilitate our understanding of nutrient and phytoplankton dynamics, and stress the importance for multi-agency cooperation across state boundaries.