Myles Connor

Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Although stroke is the second leading cause of death worldwide, no comprehensive and comparable assessment of incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, and epidemiological trends has been estimated for most regions. We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to estimate the global and regional burden of stroke during 1990-2010. METHODS We searched Medline, Embase, LILACS, Scopus, PubMed, Science Direct, Global Health Database, the WHO library, and WHO regional databases from 1990 to 2012 to identify relevant studies published between 1990 and 2010.We applied the GBD 2010 analytical technique (DisMod-MR), based on disease-specific, pre-specified associations between incidence, prevalence, and mortality, to calculate regional and country-specific estimates of stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost by age group (<75 years, ≥ 75 years, and in total)and country income level (high-income, and low-income and middle-income) for 1990, 2005, and 2010. FINDINGS We included 119 studies (58 from high-income countries and 61 from low-income and middle-income countries). From 1990 to 2010, the age-standardised incidence of stroke significantly decreased by 12% (95% CI 6-17)in high-income countries, and increased by 12% (-3 to 22) in low-income and middle-income countries, albeit nonsignificantly. Mortality rates decreased significantly in both high income (37%, 31-41) and low-income and middle income countries (20%, 15-30). In 2010, the absolute numbers of people with fi rst stroke (16・9 million), stroke survivors (33 million), stroke-related deaths (5・9 million), and DALYs lost (102 million) were high and had significantly increased since 1990 (68%, 84%, 26%, and 12% increase, respectively), with most of the burden (68・6% incident strokes, 52・2% prevalent strokes, 70・9% stroke deaths, and 77・7% DALYs lost) in low-income and middle-income countries. In 2010, 5・2 million (31%) strokes were in children (aged <20 years old) and young and middle-aged adults(20-64 years), to which children and young and middle-aged adults from low-income and middle-income countries contributed almost 74 000 (89%) and 4・0 million (78%), respectively, of the burden. Additionally, we noted significant geographical differences of between three and ten times in stroke burden between GBD regions and countries. More than 62% of new strokes, 69・8% of prevalent strokes, 45・5% of deaths from stroke, and 71・7% of DALYs lost because of stroke were in people younger than 75 years. INTERPRETATION Although age-standardised rates of stroke mortality have decreased worldwide in the past two decades,the absolute number of people who have a stroke every year, stroke survivors, related deaths, and the overall global burden of stroke (DALYs lost) are great and increasing. Further study is needed to improve understanding of stroke determinants and burden worldwide, and to establish causes of disparities and changes in trends in stroke burden between countries of different income levels. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global and regional burden of first-ever ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Summary Background The burden of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke varies between regions and over time. With differences in prognosis, prevalence of risk factors, and treatment strategies, knowledge of stroke pathological type is important for targeted region-specific health-care planning for stroke and could inform priorities for type-specific prevention strategies. We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to estimate the global and regional burden of first-ever ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke during 1990–2010. Methods We searched Medline, Embase, LILACS, Scopus, PubMed, Science Direct, Global Health Database, the WHO library, and regional databases from 1990 to 2012 to identify relevant studies published between 1990 and 2010. We applied the GBD 2010 analytical technique (DisMod-MR) to calculate regional and country-specific estimates for ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke incidence, mortality, mortality-to-incidence ratio, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost, by age group (aged <75 years, ≥75 years, and in total) and country income level (high-income and low-income and middle-income) for 1990, 2005, and 2010. Findings We included 119 studies (58 from high-income countries and 61 from low-income and middle-income countries). Worldwide, the burden of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke increased significantly between 1990 and 2010 in terms of the absolute number of people with incident ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke (37% and 47% increase, respectively), number of deaths (21% and 20% increase), and DALYs lost (18% and 14% increase). In the past two decades in high-income countries, incidence of ischaemic stroke reduced significantly by 13% (95% CI 6–18), mortality by 37% (19–39), DALYs lost by 34% (16–36), and mortality-to-incidence ratios by 21% (10–27). For haemorrhagic stroke, incidence reduced significantly by 19% (1–15), mortality by 38% (32–43), DALYs lost by 39% (32–44), and mortality-to-incidence ratios by 27% (19–35). By contrast, in low-income and middle-income countries, we noted a significant increase of 22% (5–30) in incidence of haemorrhagic stroke and a 6% (–7 to 18) non-significant increase in the incidence of ischaemic stroke. Mortality rates for ischaemic stroke fell by 14% (9–19), DALYs lost by 17% (–11 to 21%), and mortality-to-incidence ratios by 16% (–12 to 22). For haemorrhagic stroke in low-income and middle-income countries, mortality rates reduced by 23% (–18 to 25%), DALYs lost by 25% (–21 to 28), and mortality-to-incidence ratios by 36% (–34 to 28). Interpretation Although age-standardised mortality rates for ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke have decreased in the past two decades, the absolute number of people who have these stroke types annually, and the number with related deaths and DALYs lost, is increasing, with most of the burden in low-income and middle-income countries. Further study is needed in these countries to identify which subgroups of the population are at greatest risk and who could be targeted for preventive efforts.

Burden of stroke in black populations in sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing epidemiological transition. Stroke and other vascular diseases increasingly contribute to the burden of disease. There are no systematic reviews of stroke mortality, prevalence, incidence, and case fatality. We combined a thorough search and critical assessment of the published research. Stroke mortality is as high, perhaps higher, than in high-income regions and increases with age in sub-Saharan Africa as in high-income countries, but the absolute number of stroke deaths remains low. There are no adequate community-based stroke incidence studies. Hospital-based incidence is lower than in high-income regions, but higher in young people, possibly due to hospital admission bias. There are no community-based data on case fatality, but hospital-based case fatality is higher than elsewhere. The prevalence of stroke is lower than in high-income regions, but disabling stroke is as prevalent. As the region develops economically, the incidence of stroke and other vascular diseases will increase unless interventions are implemented. Only community-based incidence studies will accurately reveal the burden of stroke.

The spectrum of HIV‐1 related cancers in South Africa

Despite the high prevalence of infection by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in South Africa, information on its association with cancer is sparse. Our study was carried out to examine the relationship between HIV and a number of cancer types or sites that are common in South Africa. A total of 4,883 subjects, presenting with a cancer or cardiovascular disease at the 3 tertiary referral hospitals in Johannesburg, were interviewed and had blood tested for HIV. Odds ratios associated with HIV infection were calculated by using unconditional logistic regression models for 16 major cancer types where data was available for 50 or more patients. In the comparison group, the prevalence of HIV infection was 8.3% in males and 9.1% in females. Significant excess risks associated with HIV infection were found for Kaposis sarcoma (OR=21.9, 95% CI=12.5–38.6), non‐Hodgkin lymphoma (OR=5.0, 95%CI=2.7–9.5), vulval cancer (OR=4.8, 95%CI=1.9–12.2) and cervical cancer (OR=1.6, 95%CI=1.1–2.3) but not for any of the other major cancer types examined, including Hodgkin disease, multiple myeloma and lung cancer. In Johannesburg, South Africa, HIV infection was associated with significantly increased risks of Kaposis sarcoma, non‐Hodgkin lymphoma and cancers of the cervix and the vulva. The relative risks for Kaposis sarcoma and non‐Hodgkin lymphoma associated with HIV infection were substantially lower than those found in the West. Int. J. Cancer 88:489–492, 2000.

Stroke in patients with human immunodeficiency virus infection

Objective: To report the nature of stroke in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in a region with high HIV seroprevalence and describe HIV associated vasculopathy. Methods: Patients with first ever stroke, infected with HIV and prospectively included in the stroke register of the Groote Schuur Hospital/University of Cape Town stroke unit were identified and reviewed. Results: Between 2000 and 2006, 67 of the 1087 (6,1%) stroke patients were HIV infected. Of these, 91% (n = 61) were younger than 46 years. Cerebral infarction occurred in 96% (n = 64) of the HIV positive patients and intracerebral haemorrhage in 4% (n = 3). HIV infected young stroke patients did not demonstrate hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidaemia or smoking as significant risk factors for ischaemic stroke. Infection as a risk factor for stroke was significantly more common in HIV positive patients (p = 0.018, OR 6.4, CI 3.1 to 13.2). In 52 (81%) patients with ischaemic stroke, an aetiology was determined. Primary aetiologies comprised infectious meningitides/vasculitides in 18 (28%) patients, coagulopathy in 12 (19%) patients and cardioembolism in nine (14%) patients. Multiple aetiologies were present in seven (11%) patients with ischaemic stroke. HIV associated vasculopathy was identified in 13 (20%) patients. The HIV associated vasculopathy manifested either extracranially (seven patients) as total or significant carotid occlusion or intracranially (six patients) as medium vessel occlusion, with or without fusiform aneurysmal dilation, stenosis and vessel calibre variation. Conclusion: Investigation of HIV infected patients presenting with stroke will determine an aetiology in the majority of patients. In our cohort, 20% of patients demonstrated evidence of an HIV associated vasculopathy.

HIV infection and stroke: Current perspectives and future directions

Summary HIV infection can result in stroke via several mechanisms, including opportunistic infection, vasculopathy, cardioembolism, and coagulopathy. However, the occurrence of stroke and HIV infection might often be coincidental. HIV-associated vasculopathy describes various cerebrovascular changes, including stenosis and aneurysm formation, vasculitis, and accelerated atherosclerosis, and might be caused directly or indirectly by HIV infection, although the mechanisms are controversial. HIV and associated infections contribute to chronic inflammation. Combination antiretroviral therapies (cART) are clearly beneficial, but can be atherogenic and could increase stroke risk. cART can prolong life, increasing the size of the ageing population at risk of stroke. Stroke management and prevention should include identification and treatment of the specific cause of stroke and stroke risk factors, and judicious adjustment of the cART regimen. Epidemiological, clinical, biological, and autopsy studies of risk, the pathogenesis of HIV-associated vasculopathy (particularly of arterial endothelial damage), the long-term effects of cART, and ideal stroke treatment in patients with HIV are needed, as are antiretrovirals that are without vascular risk.

The South African Stroke Risk in General Practice Study

BACKGROUND Incidence of stroke is increasing in sub-Saharan Africa and stroke prevention is an essential component of successful stroke management. General practitioners (GPs) are well placed to manage stroke risk factors. To design appropriate strategies for risk factor reduction we need to know the risk factor prevalence in each of the population groups attending GPs. The aim of this study was to establish the prevalence of stroke risk factors in the South African general practice population. METHOD We conducted a multicentre, observational study of patients attending general practice in South Africa. Two hundred general practices were randomly selected from lists provided by pharmaceutical representatives. Each GP approached 50 consecutive patients aged 30 years and older. Patients completed an information sheet and the GP documented the patients risk factors. The resulting sample is relevant if not necessarily representative in a statistical sense. RESULTS A total of 9 731 questionnaires were returned out of a possible 10,000. The mean age of particpants was 50.7 years. Seventy-six per cent had 1 or more risk factors and 40% had 2 or more risk factors. Hypertension was the commonest risk factor in all population groups (55%) but was highest in black patients (59%). Dyslipidaemia was commonest in whites (37%) and least common in blacks (5%). Diabetes was commonest in Asians (24%) but least common in whites (8%). Risk factors other than smoking increased with age. CONCLUSION This study provides unique data on the prevalence of stroke risk factors in a South African general practice population. Risk factors are common in all population groups, but differ in distribution among the groups. There is considerable opportunity to reduce the burden of stroke in South Africa through GP screening for and treatment of risk factors.

The Global Burden of Hemorrhagic Stroke : A Summary of Findings From the GBD 2010 Study

This report summarizes the findings of the GBD 2010 (Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors) study for hemorrhagic stroke (HS). Multiple databases were searched for relevant studies published between 1990 and 2010. The GBD 2010 study provided standardized estimates of the incidence, mortality, mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) lost for HS (including intracerebral hemorrhage and subarachnoid hemorrhage) by age, sex, and income level (high-income countries [HIC]; low- and middle-income countries [LMIC]) for 21 GBD 2010 regions in 1990, 2005, and 2010. In 2010, there were 5.3 million cases of HS and over 3.0 million deaths due to HS. There was a 47% increase worldwide in the absolute number of HS cases. The largest proportion of HS incident cases (80%) and deaths (63%) occurred in LMIC countries. There were 62.8 million DALY lost (86% in LMIC) due to HS. The overall age-standardized incidence rate of HS per 100,000 person-years in 2010 was 48.41 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 45.44 to 52.13) in HIC and 99.43 (95% CI: 85.37 to 116.28) in LMIC, and 81.52 (95% CI: 72.27 to 92.82) globally. The age-standardized incidence of HS increased by 18.5% worldwide between 1990 and 2010. In HIC, there was a reduction in incidence of HS by 8% (95% CI: 1% to 15%), mortality by 38% (95% CI: 32% to 43%), DALY by 39% (95% CI: 32% to 44%), and MIR by 27% (95% CI: 19% to 35%) in the last 2 decades. In LMIC countries, there was a significant increase in the incidence of HS by 22% (95% CI: 5% to 30%), whereas there was a significant reduction in mortality rates of 23% (95% CI: -3% to 36%), DALY lost of 25% (95% CI: 7% to 38%), and MIR by 36% (95% CI: 16% to 49%). There were significant regional differences in incidence rates of HS, with the highest rates in LMIC regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia, and lowest rates in High Income North America and Western Europe. The worldwide burden of HS has increased over the last 2 decades in terms of absolute numbers of HS incident events. The majority of the burden of HS is borne by LMIC. Rates for HS incidence, mortality, and DALY lost, as well as MIR decreased in the past 2 decades in HIC, but increased significantly in LMIC countries, particularly in those patients ≤75 years. HS affected people at a younger age in LMIC than in HIC. The lowest incidence and mortality rates in 2010 were in High Income North America, Australasia, and Western Europe, whereas the highest rates were in Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. These results suggest that reducing the burden of HS is a priority particularly in LMIC. The GBD 2010 findings may be a useful resource for planning strategies to reduce the global burden of HS.

Differences in the Nature of Stroke in a Multiethnic Urban South African Population The Johannesburg Hospital Stroke Register

Background and Purpose— The burden of stroke is increasing in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as the population undergoes epidemiological and demographic transition. Little is known about the nature (risk factors, stroke type and subtype, and causes) of stroke in SSA and whether it differs from stroke in high-income populations. We aimed to compare the nature of stroke between black and white populations in South Africa. Methods— We used overlapping sources to ascertain consecutive first-ever-in-a-lifetime stroke patients admitted to Johannesburg Hospital over 23 months. We assessed each patient’s demographic details, risk factors, CT confirmed pathological stroke type, ischemic stroke subtype and stroke severity, and compared the nature of stroke between black and white stroke patients. Results— 524 patients with presumed stroke were referred. Of these, 432 were first-ever strokes; 308 patients were black and 76 white. Black patients were significantly younger (mean age 51) than white patients (61). Stroke severity was similar (median NIH stroke score 10; 95% CI 8 to 11). More black than white patients had cerebral hemorrhage (27% versus 15%), lacunar stroke (28% versus 22%) and total anterior circulation infarcts (28% versus 22%). Large vessel atherosclerosis (none detected) and ischemic heart disease were very uncommon (1%) as a cause of stroke in black patients. Hypertension (70% versus 68%) and diabetes (14 versus 15%) were as common in black and white stroke patients, but mean cholesterol levels were lower (4.6 mmol/L; 95% CI 4.3 to 4.9 versus 5.3 mmol/L; 4.8 to 5.7) and cigarette smoking less frequent in black patients (23 versus 54%). Conclusions— Although this was a hospital-based study, the difference in the nature of stroke between black and white stroke patients likely reflects the profile of stroke risk factors. There is an opportunity to prevent an otherwise inevitable increase in atherosclerotic stroke (and IHD) by targeting dietary and smoking habits in the black South African population.

Body size and blood pressure: an analysis of Africans and the African diaspora.

Background: Blood pressure is directly and causally associated with body mass index (BMI) in populations worldwide. However, the relationship may vary across BMI in populations of African origin. Methods: We compared the relationship between blood pressure and BMI in populations of African origin, using 13 samples from Africa, the Caribbean, the United Kingdom and the United States. We had access to data from individual participants for age, height, weight, blood pressure, and treatment of hypertension. Analysis was restricted to 18,072 participants (age 35–64 years; 44% men). We carried out multivariate regression analysis to estimate the relationship between blood pressure and BMI by country and by sex. The use of antihypertensive treatment was taken into account by exclusion and by sensitivity analysis. Results: There was a positive relationship between both systolic and diastolic blood pressure and BMI. In men the slopes for systolic blood pressure varied from 0.27 mm Hg per kg/m2 (95% confidence interval = −0.01 to 0.56) in the United States to 1.72 mm Hg per kg/m2 (95% confidence interval = 0.92 to 2.53) in Ghana (Kumasi). In women, the slopes varied from 0.08 (−0.54 to 0.72) in South Africa to 1.32 (0.98 to 1.66) in the Republic of Congo. Similar variation in trends was seen for diastolic blood pressure. The higher the BMI, the shallower the slopes [−0.10 (−0.15 to −0.06) for systolic, −0.09 (−0.12 to −0.06) for diastolic]. No differences were seen after excluding persons who were being treated for hypertension. Conclusions: Blood pressure and BMI levels vary among populations of the African diaspora. The effect of BMI on blood pressure levels diminishes as BMI increases. These results suggest a complex relationship among excess body weight, adiposity, and energy expenditure.