N. H. Ravindranath

The top 100 questions of importance to the future of global agriculture

Despite a significant growth in food production over the past half-century, one of the most important challenges facing society today is how to feed an expected population of some nine billion by the middle of the 20th century. To meet the expected demand for food without significant increases in prices, it has been estimated that we need to produce 70–100 per cent more food, in light of the growing impacts of climate change, concerns over energy security, regional dietary shifts and the Millennium Development target of halving world poverty and hunger by 2015. The goal for the agricultural sector is no longer simply to maximize productivity, but to optimize across a far more complex landscape of production, rural development, environmental, social justice and food consumption outcomes. However, there remain significant challenges to developing national and international policies that support the wide emergence of more sustainable forms of land use and efficient agricultural production. The lack of information flow between scientists, practitioners and policy makers is known to exacerbate the difficulties, despite increased emphasis upon evidence-based policy. In this paper, we seek to improve dialogue and understanding between agricultural research and policy by identifying the 100 most important questions for global agriculture. These have been compiled using a horizon-scanning approach with leading experts and representatives of major agricultural organizations worldwide. The aim is to use sound scientific evidence to inform decision making and guide policy makers in the future direction of agricultural research priorities and policy support. If addressed, we anticipate that these questions will have a significant impact on global agricultural practices worldwide, while improving the synergy between agricultural policy, practice and research. This research forms part of the UK Governments Foresight Global Food and Farming Futures project.

Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment

Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries considerable risks. In this review, we bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation: Land‐use and energy experts, land‐use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life‐cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state‐of‐the‐art knowledge on various climate effects, provide an update on estimates of technical resource potential and comprehensively identify sustainability effects. Cellulosic feedstocks, increased end‐use efficiency, improved land carbon‐stock management and residue use, and, when fully developed, BECCS appear as the most promising options, depending on development costs, implementation, learning, and risk management. Combined heat and power, efficient biomass cookstoves and small‐scale power generation for rural areas can help to promote energy access and sustainable development, along with reduced emissions. We estimate the sustainable technical potential as up to 100 EJ: high agreement; 100–300 EJ: medium agreement; above 300 EJ: low agreement. Stabilization scenarios indicate that bioenergy may supply from 10 to 245 EJ yr−1 to global primary energy supply by 2050. Models indicate that, if technological and governance preconditions are met, large‐scale deployment (>200 EJ), together with BECCS, could help to keep global warming below 2° degrees of preindustrial levels; but such high deployment of land‐intensive bioenergy feedstocks could also lead to detrimental climate effects, negatively impact ecosystems, biodiversity and livelihoods. The integration of bioenergy systems into agriculture and forest landscapes can improve land and water use efficiency and help address concerns about environmental impacts. We conclude that the high variability in pathways, uncertainties in technological development and ambiguity in political decision render forecasts on deployment levels and climate effects very difficult. However, uncertainty about projections should not preclude pursuing beneficial bioenergy options.

Carbon inventory methods : handbook for greenhouse gas inventory, carbon mitigation and roundwood production projects

Carbon inventory requiring estimation of carbon dioxide emissions and removals in land-use categories for national greenhouse gas inventory and changes in stocks of carbon in projects aimed at climate change mitigation has become increasingly important in global efforts to address climate change. Hence, there is a need for a handbook that provides guidelines and methods required for carbon inventory.Carbon Inventory Methods Handbook provides detailed step-by-step information on sampling procedures, field and laboratory measurements, application of remote sensing and GIS techniques, modeling, and calculation procedures along with sources of data for carbon inventory.The unique feature of this handbook is that it provides practical guidance on carbon inventory methods for four kinds of projects, namely, 1) development, implementation and monitoring of carbon mitigation in forest, agriculture and grassland sectors, 2) national greenhouse gas inventory in agriculture, forest, and other land-use categories, 3) forest, grassland and agroforestry development and 4) commercial and community forestry roundwood production.Carbon Inventory Methods Handbook is an essential source of reference to universities and research institutions dealing with climate change, consultancy and non-governmental organizations involved in developing and monitoring land-based mitigation projects, donor agencies funding carbon mitigation projects, national greenhouse gas inventory agencies, United Nations agencies and mechanisms such as Clean Development Mechanism and Global Environment Facility, roundwood production and land reclamation project developers and managers, and forest departments.

Carbon flow in Indian forests

The present study estimates the net emission of carbon from the forest sector in India. For the reference year (1986), the gross emission from deforestation in that year, plus committed emissions from deforestation in the preceding years, is estimated to be 64 × 106 t of C. The carbon sequestration (or net woody biomass accumulation in trees for long-term storage) from the area brought under tree plantations and the existing forest area under forest succession is estimated to offset the gross carbon emission in India, leading to no net emissions of carbon from the forest sector. Medium-term projections for India (for the year 2011) show that under a ‘business as usual’ scenario at current rates of afforestation, projected carbon emissions would continue to be balanced by sequestration.

The role of sustainable agriculture and renewable–resource management in reducing greenhouse–gas emissions and increasing sinks in China and India

This paper contains an analysis of the technical options in agriculture for reducing greenhouse–gas emissions and increasing sinks, arising from three distinct mechanisms: (i) increasing carbon sinks in soil organic matter and above–ground biomass; (ii) avoiding carbon emissions from farms by reducing direct and indirect energy use; and (iii) increasing renewable–energy production from biomass that either substitutes for consumption of fossil fuels or replaces inefficient burning of fuelwood or crop residues, and so avoids carbon emissions, together with use of biogas digesters and improved cookstoves. We then review best–practice sustainable agriculture and renewable–resource–management projects and initiatives in China and India, and analyse the annual net sinks being created by these projects, and the potential market value of the carbon sequestered. We conclude with a summary of the policy and institutional conditions and reforms required for adoption of best sustainability practice in the agricultural sector to achieve the desired reductions in emissions and increases in sinks. A review of 40 sustainable agriculture and renewable–resource–management projects in China and India under the three mechanisms estimated a carbon mitigation potential of 64.8 MtC yr−1 from 5.5 Mha. The potential income for carbon mitigation is

Biogas plant dissemination: success story of Sirsi, India

324 million at

Carbon mitigation potential and costs of forestry options in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines and Tanzania

5 per tonne of carbon. The potential exists to increase this by orders of magnitude, and so contribute significantly to greenhouse–gas abatement. Most agricultural mitigation options also provide several ancillary benefits. However, there are many technical, financial, policy, legal and institutional barriers to overcome.

Land availability and biomass production potential in India.

Dissemination of alternative energy technologies such as biogas in various parts of the world has rarely led to a success rate of 90%. This study in Sirsi block, Karnataka, south India, revealed that 43% of rural households (HH) had dung resources to operate biogas plants and 65% of them had already built biogas plants. 100% of the plants built were functioning satisfactorily and 85% of HH with biogas plants met all their cooking energy needs with biogas, improving the quality of life of women. The presence of multiple agencies in the dissemination network, participation of entrepreneurs competing to assist households in all aspects of biogas plant construction, commissioning, procuring subsidy, guaranteed performance and free servicing contributed to the high rate of success (of 100% of biogas plants being functional). Most biogas plants built had excess plant capacity, with cost implications. An observed shift in the design choice from mild steel floating drum design to fibre reinforced plastic-based floating drum design and then to a less expensive fixed dome model shows that rural households respond quickly to technological developments. The paper discusses the roles of various factors and their implications for future dissemination programmes.

Potential and economics of forestry options for carbon sequestration in India

This paper summarizes studies of carbon (C) mitigation potential and costs of about 40 forestry options in seven developing countries. Each study uses the same methodological approach – Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process (COMAP) – to estimate the above parameters between 2000 and 2030. The approach requires the projection of baseline and mitigation land-use scenarios. Coupled with data on a per ha basis on C sequestration or avoidance, and costs and benefits, it allows the estimation of monetary benefit per Mg C, and the total costs and carbon potential. The results show that about half (3.0 Pg C) the cumulative mitigation potential of 6.2 Petagram (Pg) C between 2000 and 2030 in the seven countries (about 200× 106 Mg C yr-1) could be achieved at a negative cost and the remainder at costs ranging up to

Sustainable biomass production for energy in selected Asian countries.

100 Mg C-1. About 5 Pg C could be achieved, at a cost less than