N. I. Kristiansen

Operational prediction of ash concentrations in the distal volcanic cloud from the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

[1] During the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajokull, improvements were made to the modeling procedure at the Met Office, UK, enabling peak ash concentrations within the volcanic cloud to be estimated. In this paper we describe the ash concentration forecasting method, its rationale and how it evolved over time in response to new information and user requirements. The change from solely forecasting regions of ash to also estimating peak ash concentrations required consideration of volcanic ash emission rates, the fraction of ash surviving near-source fall-out, and the relationship between predicted mean and local peak ash concentrations unresolved by the model. To validate the modeling procedure, predicted peak ash concentrations are compared against observations obtained by ground-based and research aircraft instrumentation. This comparison between modeled and observed peak concentrations highlights the many sources of error and the uncertainties involved. Despite the challenges of predicting ash concentrations, the ash forecasting method employed here is found to give useful guidance on likely ash concentrations. Predicted peak ash concentrations lie within about one and a half orders of magnitude of the observed peak concentrations. A significant improvement in the agreement between modeled and observed values is seen if a buffer zone, accounting for positional errors in the predicted ash cloud, is used. Sensitivity of the predicted ash concentrations to the source properties (e.g., the plume height and the vertical distribution of ash at the source) is assessed and in some cases, seemingly minor uncertainties in the source specification have a large effect on predicted ash concentrations.

Stratospheric volcanic ash emissions from the 13 February 2014 Kelut eruption

Mount Kelut (Indonesia) erupted explosively around 15:50 UT on 13 February 2014 sending ash and gases into the stratosphere. Satellite ash retrievals and dispersion transport modeling are combined within an inversion framework to estimate the volcanic ash source term and to study ash transport. The estimated source term suggests that most of the ash was injected to altitudes of 16–17 km, in agreement with space-based lidar data. Modeled ash concentrations along the flight track of a commercial aircraft that encountered the ash cloud indicate that it flew under the main ash cloud and encountered maximum ash concentrations of 9 ± 3 mg m−3, mean concentrations of 2 ± 1 mg m−3over a period of 10–11 min of the flight, giving a dosage of 1.2 ± 0.3 g s m−3. Satellite data could not be used directly to observe the ash cloud encountered by the aircraft, whereas inverse modeling revealed its presence.

Separation of ash and sulfur dioxide during the 2011 Grímsvötn eruption

Modeling the transport of volcanic ash and gases released during volcanic eruptions is crucially dependent on knowledge of the source term of the eruption, that is, the source strength as a function of altitude and time. For the first time, an inversion method is used to estimate the source terms of both volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO2) and ash. It was applied to the explosive volcanic eruption of Grimsvotn, Iceland, in May 2011. The method uses input from the particle dispersion model, FLEXPART (flexible particle dispersion model), a priori source estimates, and satellite observations of SO2 or ash total columns from Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer to separately obtain the source terms for volcanic SO2 and fine ash. The estimated source terms show that SO2 was emitted mostly to high altitudes (5 to 13 km) during about 18 h (22 May, 00-18 UTC) while fine ash was emitted mostly to low altitudes (below 4 km) during roughly 24 h (22 May 06 UTC to 23 May 06 UTC). FLEXPART simulations using the estimated source terms show a clear separation of SO2 (transported mostly northwestward) and the fine ash (transported mostly southeastward). This corresponds well with independent satellite observations and measured aerosol mass concentrations and lidar measurements at surface stations in Scandinavia. Aircraft measurements above Iceland and Germany confirmed that the ash was located in the lower atmosphere. This demonstrates that the inversion method, in this case, is able to distinguish between emission heights of SO2 and ash and can capture resulting differences in transport patterns. Key Points Ash and SO2 source terms estimated using inverse techniques and satellite data The transport and separation of ash and SO2 are modeled Model simulations correspond well with a range of independent observations ©2014. The Authors.

Uncertainties in the inverse modelling of sulphur dioxide eruption profiles

An inverse modelling methodology to derive vertical profiles of atmospheric emissions in volcanic eruptions from satellite observations has been developed and applied, inter alia, to sulphur dioxide from the Kasatochi 2008 eruption. In this paper, the method is expanded to yield a posteriori uncertainties of the emission profiles, and sensitivity experiments have been conducted to study the influence of different assumptions for the input parameters. These parameters are the a priori emission profile and its uncertainty, the uncertainties of the observations, and the value of a smoothing parameter. The basic structure of the emission profile with a tropospheric and a stratospheric peak, as well as the heights of these peaks is very robust against the parameter variations. As constraints on the inversion are loosened, the stratospheric peak becomes stronger and sharper.

Using data insertion with the NAME model to simulate the 8 May 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash cloud

A data insertion method, where a dispersion model is initialized from ash properties derived from a series of satellite observations, is used to model the 8 May 2010 Eyjafjallajokull volcanic ash cloud which extended from Iceland to northern Spain. We also briefly discuss the application of this method to the April 2010 phase of the Eyjafjallajokull eruption and the May 2011 Grimsvotn eruption. An advantage of this method is that very little knowledge about the eruption itself is required because some of the usual eruption source parameters are not used. The method may therefore be useful for remote volcanoes where good satellite observations of the erupted material are available, but little is known about the properties of the actual eruption. It does, however, have a number of limitations related to the quality and availability of the observations. We demonstrate that, using certain configurations, the data insertion method is able to capture the structure of a thin filament of ash extending over northern Spain that is not fully captured by other modeling methods. It also verifies well against the satellite observations according to the quantitative object-based quality metric, SAL—structure, amplitude, location, and the spatial coverage metric, Figure of Merit in Space.