Nachum Sicherman

Do Workers Prefer Increasing Wage Profiles

We present survey data challenging the assumption implicit in analyses of labor supply that, all else being equal, workers prefer declining over increasing wage profiles. We test several explanations for our results, including that (a) there is something special about wages (e.g., their association with productivity), as opposed to other types of payments, that induces the preference for increasing wages; (b) utility depends not only on absolute levels of consumption but also on changes in consumption over time; and (c) respondents who prefer increasing wage profiles are irrational and would change their behavior if the rationale for preferring declining wages were explained.

Technological Change and the Skill Acquisition of Young Workers

Since technological change influences the rate at which human capital obsolesces and also increases the uncertainty associated with human capital investments, training may increase or decrease at higher rates of technological change. Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we find that production workers in manufacturing industries with higher rates of technological change are more likely to receive formal company training. At higher rates of technological change, the training gap between the more and less educated narrows, low‐skilled nonproduction workers receive significantly more training than higher‐skilled nonproduction workers, and the proportion of individuals receiving training increases.

Technological Change and Retirement Decisions of Older Workers

According to human capital theory, technological change will influence the retirement decisions of older workers in two ways. First, workers in industries with high rates of technological change will retire later if there is a net positive correlation between technological change and on-the-job training. Second, an unexpected change in the rate of technological change will induce older workers to retire sooner because the required amount of retraining will be an unattractive investment. We matched industry data on productivity growth and occupational data on required training with data from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Older Men to test these hypotheses. Our results support both hypotheses.

The cost-effectiveness of low-dose CT screening for lung cancer: preliminary results of baseline screening.

BACKGROUND Low-dose CT scan screening greatly improves the likelihood of detecting small nodules and, thus, of detecting lung cancer at a potentially more curable stage. METHODS To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a single baseline low-dose CT scan for lung cancer screening in high-risk individuals, data from the Early Lung Cancer Action Project (ELCAP) was incorporated into a decision analysis model comparing low-dose CT scan screening of high-risk individuals (ie, those > or = 60 years with at least 10 pack-years of cigarette smoking and no other malignancies) to observation without screening. Cost-effectiveness was expressed as the incremental cost per year of life saved. The analysis adopted the perspectives of the health-care system. The probability of the different outcomes following the decision either to screen or not to screen an individual at risk was based on data from ELCAP and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Registry or published data, respectively. The cost of the screening and treatment of patients with lung cancer was established based on data from the New York Presbyterian Hospitals financial system. The base-case analysis was conducted under the assumption of similar aggressiveness of screen-detected and incidentally discovered lung cancers and then was followed by multiple sensitivity analyses to relax these assumptions. RESULTS The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of a single baseline low-dose CT scan was 2,500 US dollars per year of life saved. The base-case analysis showed that screening would be expected to increase survival by 0.1 year at an incremental cost of approximately 230 US dollars. Only when the likelihood of overdiagnosis was > 50% did the cost effectiveness ratio exceed 50,000 US dollars per year of life saved. The cost-effectiveness ratios were also relatively insensitive to estimates of the potential lead-time bias. CONCLUSIONS A baseline low-dose CT scan for lung cancer screening is potentially highly cost-effective and compares favorably to the cost-effectiveness ratios of other screening programs.

Gender Differences in Departures from a Large Firm

Previous studies have found that although women have higher initial quit rates than men, the quit rates of the two groups converge as time on the job lengthens. This study of personnel records from a large company for the years 1971–80 confirms that finding in an analysis that aggregates observations across all reasons for quits. Disaggregation of the data by reason for quitting, however, reveals marked, systematic differences between men and women. Notably, a higher proportion of women than men left their jobs for non-market-related reasons such as household duties and illness in the family; and women were much more likely than men to name higher wages, and not better opportunities, as a reason for switching jobs. Also, the effects of tenure and education on quit rates differed significantly across both gender and reasons for departure.

Clinical InvestigationsCANCERThe Cost-Effectiveness of Low-Dose CT Screening for Lung Cancer*: Preliminary Results of Baseline Screening

BACKGROUND Low-dose CT scan screening greatly improves the likelihood of detecting small nodules and, thus, of detecting lung cancer at a potentially more curable stage. METHODS To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a single baseline low-dose CT scan for lung cancer screening in high-risk individuals, data from the Early Lung Cancer Action Project (ELCAP) was incorporated into a decision analysis model comparing low-dose CT scan screening of high-risk individuals (ie, those > or = 60 years with at least 10 pack-years of cigarette smoking and no other malignancies) to observation without screening. Cost-effectiveness was expressed as the incremental cost per year of life saved. The analysis adopted the perspectives of the health-care system. The probability of the different outcomes following the decision either to screen or not to screen an individual at risk was based on data from ELCAP and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Registry or published data, respectively. The cost of the screening and treatment of patients with lung cancer was established based on data from the New York Presbyterian Hospitals financial system. The base-case analysis was conducted under the assumption of similar aggressiveness of screen-detected and incidentally discovered lung cancers and then was followed by multiple sensitivity analyses to relax these assumptions. RESULTS The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of a single baseline low-dose CT scan was 2,500 US dollars per year of life saved. The base-case analysis showed that screening would be expected to increase survival by 0.1 year at an incremental cost of approximately 230 US dollars. Only when the likelihood of overdiagnosis was > 50% did the cost effectiveness ratio exceed 50,000 US dollars per year of life saved. The cost-effectiveness ratios were also relatively insensitive to estimates of the potential lead-time bias. CONCLUSIONS A baseline low-dose CT scan for lung cancer screening is potentially highly cost-effective and compares favorably to the cost-effectiveness ratios of other screening programs.

Education and occupational mobility

Abstract This paper analyzes the effect of education on different types of occupational mobility. The focus of the analysis is on “career mobility”, an upward occupational mobility along a series of occupations that forms a workers career. More educated workers are less likely, on average, to change occupation due to larger amounts of occupational specific investment and also because their careers involve a fewer number of distinct occupations. Within the same occupation of origin, however, more educated workers are more likely to move to a higher level occupation, within the firm (promotion) or across firms. In those occupations where the effect of schooling on wages is lower, schooling has a stronger effect on the likelihood of moving to a higher level occupation.

Why Do Dancers Smoke? Smoking, Time Preference, and Wage Dynamics

Time preference is a key determinant of investments in human capital and occupational choice. Individuals with higher discount rates are less likely to invest in human capital and hence more likely to select into careers with lower and flatter earnings profiles. Since discount rates are unobservable, we use smoking behavior as a proxy to study the effect of discounting on wage dynamics. We find that smokers, compared to non-smokers, earn lower wages at the time they enter the labor market and experience substantially lower rates of wage growth. These differences are consistent with the discounting hypothesis, and highly robust to an extensive array of control variables.

Technological Change and the Make-or-Buy Decision

A central decision faced by firms is whether to make intermediate components internally or to buy them from specialized producers. We argue that firms producing products for which rapid technological change is characteristic will benefit from outsourcing to avoid the risk of not recouping their sunk cost investments when new production technologies appear. This risk is exacerbated when firms produce for low volume internal use, and is mitigated for those firms that sell to larger markets. Hence, products characterized by higher rates of technological change will be more likely to be produced by mass specialized firms to which other firms outsource production. Using a 1990–2002 panel data set on Spanish firms and an exogenous proxy for technological change, we provide causal evidence that technological change increases the likelihood of outsourcing. JEL Codes: O33, L24.

THE MEASUREMENT OF ON-THE-JOB TRAINING

The availability of direct measurement of job training provides an opportunity to test directly theories dealing with the relationship among training, schooling, wage growth, and labor mobility. Since most training is informal, obtaining a good estimate is complicated but crucial. This paper analyzes and compares the training information provided by two data sets: The Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the DOT. The analysis shows that the PSID reports only partially training obtained via vocational education and experience in other jobs. The average reported training in the DOT is, therefore, higher, but the correlation between the two measures is high.