Nadejda Komendantova

Regional integration to support full renewable power deployment for Europe by 2050

The European Union is currently working on a achieving a target of 20% renewable energy by 2020, and has a policy framework in place that relies primarily on individual Member States implementing their own policy instruments for renewable energy support, within a larger context of a tradable quota system. For 2050 the target is likely to be more stringent, given the goal of reducing European carbon dioxide emissions by 80% by then. Preliminary analysis has suggested that achieving the 2020 target through renewable power deployment will be far less expensive and far more reliable if a regional approach is taken, in order to balance intermittent supply, and to take advantage of high renewable potentials off the European mainland. Analysis based on modeling is combined with the results of stakeholder interviews to highlight the key options and governance challenges associated with developing such a regional approach.

Multi-risk governance for natural hazards in Naples and Guadeloupe

Technical and institutional capacities are strongly related and must be jointly developed to guarantee effective natural risk governance. Indeed, the available technical solutions and decision support tools influence the development of institutional frameworks and disaster policies. This paper analyses technical and institutional capacities, by providing a comparative evaluation of governance systems in Italy and France. The focus is on two case studies: Naples and Guadeloupe. Both areas are exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, floods, tsunamis, fires, cyclones, and marine inundations Cascade and conjoint effects such as seismic swarms triggered by volcanic activity have also been taken into account. The research design is based on a documentary analysis of laws and policy documents informed by semi-structured interviews and focus groups with stakeholders at the local level. This leads to the identification of three sets of governance characteristics that cover the key issues of: (1) stakeholders and governance level; (2) decision support tools and mitigation measures; and (3) stakeholder cooperation and communication. The results provide an overview of the similarities and differences as well as the strengths and weaknesses of the governance systems across risks. Both case studies have developed adequate decision support tools for most of the hazards of concern. Warning systems, and the assessment of hazards and exposure are the main strengths. While technical/scientific capacities are very well developed, the main weaknesses involve the interagency communication and cooperation, and the use and dissemination of scientific knowledge when developing policies and practices. The consequences for multi-risk governance are outlined in the discussion.

Governance Barriers to Renewable Energy in North Africa

Solar power in the North African region has the potential to provide electricity for local energy needs and export to Europe. Nevertheless, despite the technical feasibility of solar energy projects, stakeholders still perceive projects in the region as risky because of existing governance issues. Certain areas of solar projects, such as construction, operation and management, are the most prone to governance risks, including lack of transparency and accountability, perceived as barriers for deployment of the projects. It is likely that large-scale foreign direct investment into solar energy will not eliminate existing risks, but might even increase them. Furthermore, the recent political changes in the region have addressed some governance risks but not all of them, especially bureaucratic corruption. Stakeholders recommend a broad set of measures to facilitate development of solar projects in the region, ranging from auditing of individual projects to simplification and unification of bureaucratic procedures.

Multi-risk approach and urban resilience

Purpose Urban resilience is becoming increasingly important due to increasing degree of urbanization and a combination of several factors affecting urban vulnerability. Urban resilience is also understood as a capacity of a system to prepare, respond and recover from multi-hazard threats. The purpose of multi-risk approach (MRA) is to take into consideration interdependencies between multiple risks, which can trigger a chain of natural and manmade events with different spatial and temporal scales. The purpose of this study is to understand correlation between multi-risk approach and urban resilience. Design/methodology/approach To increase urban resilience, MRA should also include multi-risk governance, which is based on understanding how existing institutional and governance structures, individual judgments and communication of risk assessment results shape decision-making processes. Findings This paper is based on extensive fieldwork in the test studies of Naples, Italy and Guadeloupe, France, the historical case study analysis and the stakeholders’ interviews, workshops and focus groups discussions. Originality/value Multi-risk is a relatively new field in science, only partially developed in social and geosciences. The originality of this research is in establishment of a link between MRA, including both assessment and governance, and urban resilience. In this paper, the authors take a holistic and systemic look at the MRA, including all stages of knowledge generation and decision-making. Both, knowledge generation and decision-making are reinforced by behavioural biases, different perceptions and institutional factors. Further on, the authors develop recommendations on how an MRA can contribute to urban resilience.

Chapter 14: Multi-Risk Assessment and Governance

Multi-risk assessment involves the inclusion of hazard and risk interactions within the modeling of the disaster risk chain. These interactions include more than one disastrous event at the same time, cascading events, and how changes in exposure and vulnerability arise over time, including as a result of previous events. At a first glance, multi-risk assessment appears to be a better means of approaching disaster risk reduction actions. However, it is hindered by a lack of knowledge about the fundamental physical processes involved, difficulties in comparing hazards and risks of different types and, especially, the topic of this chapter, barriers within risk governance for the successful implementation of necessary risk mitigation actions. Such barriers include a lack of standardization in terminology, a deficiency in expertise in the range of disciplines that are relevant to multi-risk reduction planning, inadequate resources, and biases and barriers in communication between the relevant public and private actors, as well as between researchers and policy-makers. This chapter details some of the social, institutional and scientific barriers that are associated with the full consideration of multi-risk governance, and provides some suggestions as to how these may be overcome.

Social Challenges of Electricity Transmission: Grid Deployment in Germany, the United Kingdom, and Belgium

The European Union needs to decarbonize its energy generation to reach its goals of climate change mitigation and energy security policies. In 2011, the European Commission published a road map to reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) by at least 80% by 2050. The road map foresees five pathways, and, across all of them, renewable energy generation plays a significantly stronger role today. The deployment of renewable energy sources (RES ) to generate electricity is one possible option to decarbonize energy generation. The goals of the European energy security policy require restructuring energy generation toward a greater share of lowcarbon energy generation. In October 2014, EU leaders agreed on the 2030 policy framework for climate and energy, which settles the GHG reduction target of 40% compared to 1990, as well as an increase of the share of renewable energy to at least 27% of EU energy consumption by 2030.

Transformation of the South African Energy System: Towards Participatory Governance

Background & Significance of the topic: Approximately 10% of South Africa’s population has no access to electricity. Responding to this need for affordable and sustainable energy requires solutions that are environmentally friendly and not detrimental to human health. It has been demonstrated in countries such as Germany, Denmark, Canada and Wales that public participation contributes to the social acceptance of renewable energy. This study proposes that Arnstein’s Ladder of Citizen Participation can be used to underpin the concept of stakeholder participation in emerging economies like South Africa, and that participation in renewable energy projects is dependent on leadership that is ‘ecologically’ attuned. From the onset, a renewable energy project that is geared for success must include opportunities for the public to participate in decision- making and to feel part of the success of the project. Methodology: A meta-analysis of the literature was conducted. Application/Relevance to systems analysis: This Chapter demonstrates how promoting public participation through applications such as climate modeling; assessment of impacts, vulnerability, mitigation, and adaptation options; and policy analysis can contribute to transforming a country’s energy sector. Policy and/or practice implications: This study has special relevance for policy making in the energy sector in South Africa as it assists with long term projections for good governance and transformation of the energy sector. Incorporating public participation as part of the public policy process is essential to the success of transforming South Africa’s energy system. Additionally, investing in building a cadet of environmental leaders, especially in the public sector, would mitigate environmental degradation and embrace a transition to cleaner energy. Discussion and conclusion: The need to incorporate public participation within the project cycle and institutionalise it as part of the whole process is an important success feature, along with investing in the development of environmental leadership and monitoring and evaluation initiatives.

New Governance Challenges and Conflicts of the Energy Transition: Renewable Electricity Generation and Transmission as Contested Socio-technical Options

The emergence of renewable energy sources (RES) has broadened the scope of socio-technical options for energy systems. While the conventional fossil-nuclear system has been a highly centralized one, both technological and in economic respects, RES can be implemented in a highly decentralized manner—but can also fit to the traditional centralized pathway. This new option space is associated with many conflicts. The paper reconstructs one basic conflict by conceptualizing future energy options as a strategic action field with incumbents and challengers as stylized key actors. We illustrate this approach by various cases from Germany, Austria, the Mediterranean, and China. The paper argues against a popular stylization of the strategic action field of RES along the dichotomy of centralized versus decentralized options and sketches a mixed future as the more plausible—and more desirable—one. The paper ends by sketching the design of a global super smart grid as the backbone for such a mixed option.

Impacts Of Geophysical Hazards On Critical Infrastructure: Case Study Of Electricity Transmission Networks

Geophysical hazards such as earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and storms affect electricity transmission infrastructure by destroying its elements including grids, masts, interconnectors and other elements of the electricity transmission system. Extreme temperatures also have negative impacts on transmission capacities of electricity networks. This paper discusses historical evidence of impacts of geophysical hazards and how they lead to major blackouts, which took place during the last decades in France, in the Balkans region and in China. In 1999 France experienced the storms Lothar and Martin, which had the wind speed of 200 km/h and had severe impacts on electricity transmission infrastructure. For instance 0.5% of the total number of towers were affected, 10% of circuits and 180 substations were out of order (Eurelectric, 2006). In the middle of 2015 the heavy rainfall resulted in extensive flooding in the Balkan region, which affected Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as Croatia. This was a real multi-risk event, which was followed by landslides, which damaged overhead lines and underground infrastructure as well as transformer stations, customer connections and metering equipment. This resulted in an interruption of power supply, which affected more than 250,000 customers. The Wenchuan earthquake, which happened in May 2008, was one of the most devastating earthquakes in the history of China for the last 60 years. It had the magnitude of 8.0 on the Richter scale and severely damaged regional infrastructure, including electricity systems, such as regional high voltage power transmission lines and distribution lines. The earthquake damaged three 500 kV electricity transmission lines, fifty six 220 kV transmission lines, one hundred and ten 35 kV lines and seven hundred ninety five 10kV lines. The lines tripped mainly because of the broken poles, fallen pylons and damages to transformers and circuit breakers (Eidinger, 2009). The destruction of electricity transmission infrastructure resulted in a blackout, which affected 2.5 million people. Based on the analysis of the reports about these blackouts, lessons learned as well as elicitations from stakeholders from different sectors such as transmission systems operations, NGOs, academia and international organizations, this paper provides recommendations on risk management and short and medium term response and recovery measures. References 1. Eidinger, J. (2009). Wenchuan earthquake impact to power systems. In Proceedings of the 2009 technical council on lifeline earthquake engineering (TCLEE) conference: lifeline earthquake engineering in a multihazard environment, Oakland, June. 2. Eurelectric, (2006). Impacts of Severe Storms on Electric Grids. Union of the Electricity Industry – Eurelectric.

Impacts of risks perceptions on decision-making on mitigation of losses from natural hazards: case studies of the 1995 Kobe, the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman and the 2011 Tohoku earthquakes

The earthquakes, such as the 1995 Kobe, the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman and the 2011 Tohoku, showed the need of a multi-risk approach, which would include multi-risk assessment and multi-risk governance. Despite available international frameworks and implementation of a multi-risk approach in a number of regions, the disaster risk reduction is still dominated by the single risk approach, which does not take into consideration interactions among risks. This research is based on the behavioral economics and identified barriers in the individual decision-making processes for implementation of the multi-risk approach. Evidence of cognitive and behavioral biases was found in human reasons of decision-makers prior to all three above mentioned earthquakes. Our results showed that availability heuristics, loss aversion and limited worry were three most common biases, at the same time as experimental versus statistical evidence and bounded rationality were playing the least significant role in the decision-making process.