Nadine Deslauriers-Varin

Victims' routine activities and sex offenders' target selection scripts: a latent class analysis.

This study investigates target selection scripts of 72 serial sex offenders who have committed a total of 361 sex crimes on stranger victims. Using latent class analysis, three target selection scripts were identified based on the victim’s activities prior to the crime, each presenting two different tracks: (1) the Home script, which includes the (a) intrusion track and the (b) invited track, (2) the Outdoor script, which includes the (a) noncoercive track and the (b) coercive track, and (3) the Social script, which includes the (a) onsite track and the (b) off-site track. The scripts identified appeared to be used by both sexual aggressors of children and sexual aggressors of adults. In addition, a high proportion of crime switching was found among the identified scripts, with half of the 72 offenders switching scripts at least once. The theoretical relevance of these target selection scripts and their practical implications for situational crime prevention strategies are discussed.

Confessing their Crime: Factors Influencing the Offender’s Decision to Confess to the Police

Confessions are crucial to successful police investigations but scholars have significantly overlooked factors that contribute to an offender’s decision to confess a crime. This study aims to examine a large array of factors that play a role in the offender’s decision to confess a crime to the police and potential interaction effect among them. A total of 221 adult males incarcerated in a federal Canadian penitentiary were recruited. Correctional files, police reports, and offenders’ self‐reported data were collected and analyzed. Controlling for sociodemographic, criminological, and contextual factors, a series of logistic regression analyses were conducted. Findings highlighted the predominant role of police evidence over and above other factors analyzed. Furthermore, sociodemographic and criminological factors played a more important role in the offender’s decision to confess when police evidence was weak. Findings are discussed in light of the current scientific literature on the determinants of offenders’ decision to confess their crime.

Chronic Violent Patients in an Inpatient Psychiatric Hospital Prevalence, Description, and Identification

This study examines the prevalence and the individual characteristics of chronically violent patients (CVPs) in a psychiatric hospital during inpatient treatment. The study is based on a 1-year follow-up investigation of all violent episodes committed by a sample of 527 patients in a forensic psychiatric hospital in British Columbia, Canada. Sociodemographic, legal and criminological, historical, and clinical factors were analyzed using a risk assessment scheme. Approximately 10% of the sample was responsible for more than 60% for all violent episodes recorded during the study period. Those CVPs were characterized by historical, but mostly clinical, risk factors. Moderate to good predictive accuracy was achieved when defining CVPs as individuals who perpetrated 15 or more violent episodes. Important limitations of the actuarial approach were also highlighted by the presence of two qualitatively different groups of CVPs. The results are discussed in light of the scientific literature on the risk management of inpatient violence.

A Descriptive Profile of High-Risk Sex Offenders Under Intensive Supervision in the Province of British Columbia, Canada:

This study provides a preliminary descriptive profile of individuals having been issued an 810 recognizance order (i.e., peace bond). This preventive order is issued to individuals in the community considered by the court to be high-risk sex offenders. In total, 88 offenders were issued an 810.1 (at risk of sexual offence against a child) or an 810.2 (at risk of a personal injury offence) recognizance order between April 2006 and February 2008, among whom 59 sex offenders were included. The sociodemographics, risk profiles, and recidivism of offenders under the orders were analyzed. Two risk assessment tools, the Static-99 and the Stable, were used to describe this population. Comparisons were made between sex offenders under 810.1 and 810.2 orders. Preliminary analyses suggest that these men are heterogeneous in terms of their level of risk of reoffending. Only one offender sexually reoffended while under the order. On the other hand, the general recidivism rate was about 30%, with many breaching the conditions of their order. The findings are discussed in light of the community risk management of high-risk sex offenders.

Investigating offending consistency of geographic and environmental factors among serial sex offenders: a comparison of multiple analytical strategies

Crime linkage analysis constitutes a tool to help investigators prioritize suspects, but a scarcity of research and methodological issues limits our knowledge on behavioral consistency in sexual offenses. The current study identifies geographic and environmental factors that are useful in examining offending consistency across series of sexual assaults using different specialization coefficients. The current study draws on criminal career research and methodology as a way to improve the study of behavioral consistency. The sample includes 72 serial stranger sex offenders who have committed a total of 361 sexual assaults. Three methods are used (i.e., diversity index, forward specialization coefficient, and Jaccard’s coefficient) and reveal a high degree of offending consistency. All three methods also highlight promising factors to rely on for crime linkage of serial sexual offenses. Empirical and methodological implications for behavioral consistency research are discussed as well as practical implications for police investigations and crime linkage.

Interactions between factors related to the decision of sex offenders to confess during police interrogation: a classification-tree approach.

Most studies of confessions have looked at the influence of individual factors, neglecting the potential interactions between these factors and their impact on the decision to confess or not during an interrogation. Classification and regression tree analyses conducted on a sample of 624 convicted sex offenders showed that certain factors related to the offenders (e.g., personality, criminal career), victims (e.g., sex, relationship to offender), and case (e.g., time of day of the crime) were related to the decision to confess or not during the police interrogation. Several interactions were also observed between these factors. Results will be discussed in light of previous findings and interrogation strategies for sex offenders.

Changing Their Mind About Confessing to Police: The Role of Contextual Factors in Crime Confession

This study aimed to investigate the offender’s decision making in crime confession during police interrogation. On the basis of a sample of 211 incarcerated offenders, the study showed that 21% of offenders changed their mind about confessing or not their crime following police interrogation. Logit regression indicated that contextual factors were associated with the offender’s final decision to confess after controlling for the offender’s initial decision. Multinomial regression further showed that offenders with a lengthy criminal record, advised by a lawyer, and facing drug-related charges characterized by weak police evidence were less likely to confess to the police, even when they initially planned to do so. Findings are discussed in light of the literature on crime confession.

Community Risk Management of High-Risk Sex Offenders in Canada: Findings From a Quasi-Experimental Study

Much has been said about risk assessment and risk prediction of sexual recidivism, but few studies have examined the risk management of high-risk sex offenders returning to the community. The current study explores the impact of an intensive supervision program in the province of British Columbia, Canada. A quasi-experimental design was implemented to determine the impact of the program on recidivism. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards analyses were conducted to determine the impact of the risk management program on recidivism. Mixed findings were observed as to the impact of the intensive supervision program. In spite of varying levels of supervision, the study showed that age, legal status, actuarial risk, and—to a lesser extent—education were all predictive of recidivism.