Nafomon Sogoba

An empirical malaria distribution map for West Africa

The objective of this study was to produce a malaria distribution map that would constitute a useful tool for development and health planners in West Africa. The recently created continental database of malaria survey results ( MARA/ARMA 1998 ) provides the opportunity for producing empirical models and maps of malaria distribution at a regional and eventually at a continental level. This paper reports on the mapping of malaria distribution for sub‐Saharan West Africa based on these data. The strategy was to undertake a spatial statistical analysis of malaria parasite prevalence in relation to those potential bio‐physical environmental factors involved in the distribution of malaria transmission intensity which are readily available at any map location. The resulting model was then used to predict parasite prevalence for the whole of West Africa. We also produced estimates of the proportion of population of each country in the region exposed to various categories of risk to show the impact that malaria is having on individual countries. The data represent a very large sample of children in West Africa. It constitutes a first attempt to produce a malaria risk map of the West African region, based entirely on malariometric data. We anticipate that it will provide useful additional guidance to control programme managers, and that it can be refined once sufficient additional data become available.

Mapping malaria transmission in West and Central Africa

We have produced maps of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in West and Central Africa using the Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa (MARA) database comprising all malaria prevalence surveys in these regions that could be geolocated. The 1846 malaria surveys analysed were carried out during different seasons, and were reported using different age groupings of the human population. To allow comparison between these, we used the Garki malaria transmission model to convert the malaria prevalence data at each of the 976 locations sampled to a single estimate of transmission intensity E, making use of a seasonality model based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), temperature and rainfall data. We fitted a Bayesian geostatistical model to E using further environmental covariates and applied Bayesian kriging to obtain smooth maps of E and hence of age‐specific prevalence. The product is the first detailed empirical map of variations in malaria transmission intensity that includes Central Africa. It has been validated by expert opinion and in general confirms known patterns of malaria transmission, providing a baseline against which interventions such as insecticide‐treated nets programmes and trends in drug resistance can be evaluated. There is considerable geographical variation in the precision of the model estimates and, in some parts of West Africa, the predictions differ substantially from those of other risk maps. The consequent uncertainties indicate zones where further survey data are needed most urgently. Malaria risk maps based on compilations of heterogeneous survey data are highly sensitive to the analytical methodology.

Lassa Fever in West Africa: Evidence for an Expanded Region of Endemicity

Lassa virus (LASV) is endemic in Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia (known as the Mano River region) and Nigeria and Lassa fever cases from these countries are being reported annually. Recent investigations have found evidence for an expanded endemicity zone between the two known Lassa endemic regions indicating that LASV is more widely distributed throughout the Tropical Wooded Savanna ecozone in West Africa.

Detection of Lassa Virus, Mali

To determine whether Lassa virus was circulating in southern Mali, we tested samples from small mammals from 3 villages, including Soromba, where in 2009 a British citizen probably contracted a lethal Lassa virus infection. We report the isolation and genetic characterization of Lassa virus from an area previously unknown for Lassa fever.

Endemic Foci of the Tick-Borne Relapsing Fever Spirochete Borrelia crocidurae in Mali, West Africa, and the Potential for Human Infection

Background Tick-borne relapsing fever spirochetes are maintained in endemic foci that involve a diversity of small mammals and argasid ticks in the genus Ornithodoros. Most epidemiological studies of tick-borne relapsing fever in West Africa caused by Borrelia crocidurae have been conducted in Senegal. The risk for humans to acquire relapsing fever in Mali is uncertain, as only a few human cases have been identified. Given the high incidence of malaria in Mali, and the potential to confuse the clinical diagnosis of these two diseases, we initiated studies to determine if there were endemic foci of relapsing fever spirochetes that could pose a risk for human infection. Methodology/Principal Findings We investigated 20 villages across southern Mali for the presence of relapsing fever spirochetes. Small mammals were captured, thin blood smears were examined microscopically for spirochetes, and serum samples were tested for antibodies to relapsing fever spirochetes. Ornithodoros sonrai ticks were collected and examined for spirochetal infection. In total, 11.0% of the 663 rodents and 14.3% of the 63 shrews tested were seropositive and 2.2% of the animals had active spirochete infections when captured. In the Bandiagara region, the prevalence of infection was higher with 35% of the animals seropositive and 10% infected. Here also Ornithodoros sonrai were abundant and 17.3% of 278 individual ticks tested were infected with Borrelia crocidurae. Fifteen isolates of B. crocidurae were established and characterized by multi-locus sequence typing. Conclusions/Significance The potential for human tick-borne relapsing fever exists in many areas of southern Mali.

Spatial distribution of the chromosomal forms of anopheles gambiae in Mali

BackgroundMaps of the distribution of malaria vectors are useful tools for stratification of malaria risk and for selective vector control strategies. Although the distribution of members of the Anopheles gambiae complex is well documented in Africa, a continuous map of the spatial distribution of the chromosomal forms of An. gambiae s.s. is not yet available at country level to support control efforts.MethodsBayesian geostatistical methods were used to produce continuous maps of the spatial distribution of the chromosomal forms of An. gambiae s.s. (Mopti, Bamako, Savanna and their hybrids/recombinants) based on their relative frequencies in relation to climatic and environmental factors in Mali.ResultsThe maps clearly show that each chromosomal form favours a particular defined eco-climatic zone. The Mopti form prefers the dryer northern Savanna and Sahel and the flooded/irrigated areas of the inner delta of the Niger River. The Savanna form favours the Sudan savanna areas, particularly the South and South-Eastern parts of the country (Kayes and Sikasso regions). The Bamako form has a strong preference for specific environmental conditions and it is confined to the Sudan savanna areas around urban Bamako and the Western part of Sikasso region. The hybrids/recombinants favour the Western part of the country (Kayes region) bordering the Republic of Guinea Conakry.ConclusionThe maps provide valuable information for selective vector control in Mali (insecticide resistance management) and may serve as a decision support tool for the basis for future malaria control strategies including genetically manipulated mosquitoes.

Population Size and Migration of Anopheles gambiae in the Bancoumana Region of Mali and Their Significance for Efficient Vector Control

We present results of two intensive mark-release-recapture surveys conducted during the wet and dry seasons of 2008 in the villages of Fourda and Kenieroba, Mali. The former is a small fishing village by the Niger River with a moderate to high densities of Anopheles gambiae Giles s.s. (Diptera: Culicidae) throughout the year, while the latter is a large agricultural community 2 km inland that experiences strong seasonal fluctuation in An. gambiae densities. We estimate the population size of female An. gambiae in Fourda to be in less than 3,000 during the dry season. We found evidence of large population size and migration from Fourda in Kenieroba during the wet season, but very low numbers and no sign of migrants during the dry season. We suggest that malaria vector control measures aimed at adult mosquitoes might be made more efficient in this region and other seasonal riparian habitats by targeting disruption of mosquito populations by the river during the dry season. This would decrease the size of an already small population, and would be likely to delay the explosive growth in vector numbers in the larger inland villages as rainfall increases.

Co-infection of Long-Term Carriers of Plasmodium falciparum with Schistosoma haematobium Enhances Protection from Febrile Malaria: A Prospective Cohort Study in Mali

Background Malaria and schistosomiasis often overlap in tropical and subtropical countries and impose tremendous disease burdens; however, the extent to which schistosomiasis modifies the risk of febrile malaria remains unclear. Methods We evaluated the effect of baseline S. haematobium mono-infection, baseline P. falciparum mono-infection, and co-infection with both parasites on the risk of febrile malaria in a prospective cohort study of 616 children and adults living in Kalifabougou, Mali. Individuals with S. haematobium were treated with praziquantel within 6 weeks of enrollment. Malaria episodes were detected by weekly physical examination and self-referral for 7 months. The primary outcome was time to first or only malaria episode defined as fever (≥37.5°C) and parasitemia (≥2500 asexual parasites/µl). Secondary definitions of malaria using different parasite densities were also explored. Results After adjusting for age, anemia status, sickle cell trait, distance from home to river, residence within a cluster of high S. haematobium transmission, and housing type, baseline P. falciparum mono-infection (n = 254) and co-infection (n = 39) were significantly associated with protection from febrile malaria by Cox regression (hazard ratios 0.71 and 0.44; P = 0.01 and 0.02; reference group: uninfected at baseline). Baseline S. haematobium mono-infection (n = 23) did not associate with malaria protection in the adjusted analysis, but this may be due to lack of statistical power. Anemia significantly interacted with co-infection (P = 0.009), and the malaria-protective effect of co-infection was strongest in non-anemic individuals. Co-infection was an independent negative predictor of lower parasite density at the first febrile malaria episode. Conclusions Co-infection with S. haematobium and P. falciparum is significantly associated with reduced risk of febrile malaria in long-term asymptomatic carriers of P. falciparum. Future studies are needed to determine whether co-infection induces immunomodulatory mechanisms that protect against febrile malaria or whether genetic, behavioral, or environmental factors not accounted for here explain these findings.

Sahel, Savana, Riverine and Urban Malaria in West Africa: Similar Control Policies with Different Outcomes

The study sites for the West African ICEMR are in three countries (The Gambia, Senegal, Mali) and are located within 750 km of each other. In addition, the National Malaria Control Programmes of these countries have virtually identical policies: (1) Artemisinin Combination Therapies (ACTs) for the treatment of symptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infection, (2) Long-Lasting Insecticide-treated bed Nets (LLINs) to reduce the Entomololgic Inoculation Rate (EIR), and (3) sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine for the Intermittent Preventive Treatment of malaria during pregnancy (IPTp). However, the prevalence of P. falciparum malaria and the status of malaria control vary markedly across the four sites with differences in the duration of the transmission season (from 4-5 to 10-11 months), the intensity of transmission (with EIRs from unmeasurably low to 4-5 per person per month), multiplicity of infection (from a mean of 1.0 to means of 2-5) and the status of malaria control (from areas which have virtually no control to areas that are at the threshold of malaria elimination). The most important priority is the need to obtain comparable data on the population-based prevalence, incidence and transmission of malaria before new candidate interventions or combinations of interventions are introduced for malaria control.

A Recently Isolated Lassa Virus From Mali Demonstrates Atypical Clinical Disease Manifestations and Decreased Virulence in Cynomolgus Macaques

The virulence of Soromba-R, a Lassa virus strain recently isolated from southern Mali, was assessed in 2 animal models of Lassa fever: inbred strain 13 guinea pigs and cynomolgus macaques. In both models, the Malian isolate demonstrated tissue tropism and viral titers similar to those of historical Lassa virus isolates from Sierra Leone (Josiah) and Liberia (Z-132); however, the Soromba-R isolate was found to be less pathogenic, as determined by decreased mortality and prolonged time to euthanasia in macaques. Interestingly, in addition to the classic indicators of Lassa fever, Soromba-R infection presented with moderate to severe pulmonary manifestations in the macaque model. Analysis of host responses demonstrated increased immune activation in Soromba-R-infected macaques, particularly in neutrophil-activating or -potentiating proinflammatory cytokines or growth factors, including tumor necrosis factor α, macrophage inflammatory protein 1α, interleukin 1β, and granulocyte colony-stimulating factor, as well as interleukin 5, which may be responsible for the decreased lethality and uncharacteristic clinical presentation. These results suggest that the strain of Lassa virus circulating in Mali might be less pathogenic than strains circulating in the historical region of endemicity and may result in an atypical presentation for Lassa fever, which could complicate clinical diagnosis.