Naifang Bei

Mesoscale Predictability of Moist Baroclinic Waves: Convection-Permitting Experiments and Multistage Error Growth Dynamics

A recent study examined the predictability of an idealized baroclinic wave amplifying in a conditionally unstable atmosphere through numerical simulations with parameterized moist convection. It was demonstrated that with the effect of moisture included, the error starting from small random noise is characterized by upscale growth in the short-term (0–36 h) forecast of a growing synoptic-scale disturbance. The current study seeks to explore further the mesoscale error-growth dynamics in idealized moist baroclinic waves through convection-permitting experiments with model grid increments down to 3.3 km. These experiments suggest the following three-stage error-growth model: in the initial stage, the errors grow from small-scale convective instability and then quickly [O(1 h)] saturate at the convective scales. In the second stage, the character of the errors changes from that of convective-scale unbalanced motions to one more closely related to large-scale balanced motions. That is, some of the error from convective scales is retained in the balanced motions, while the rest is radiated away in the form of gravity waves. In the final stage, the large-scale (balanced) components of the errors grow with the background baroclinic instability. Through examination of the error-energy budget, it is found that buoyancy production due mostly to moist convection is comparable to shear production (nonlinear velocity advection). It is found that turning off latent heating not only dramatically decreases buoyancy production, but also reduces shear production to less than 20% of its original amplitude.

Critical role of meteorological conditions in a persistent haze episode in the Guanzhong basin, China

In the present study, the critical role of the meteorological condition in a persistent extreme haze episode that occurred in Guanzhong basin of China on December 16 to 25, 2013 has been investigated. Analyses of the large-scale meteorological conditions on 850hPa during the episode have been performed using the NCEP FNL data set, indicating that synoptic situations generally facilitate the accumulation of pollutants either in horizontal or vertical directions in the basin. The FLEXPART model has been utilized to illustrate the pollutant transport patterns during the episode, further showing the dominant role of synoptic conditions in accumulation of pollutants in the basin. Detailed meteorological conditions, such as temperature inversion, and low-level horizontal wind speed also contribute to the extreme haze episode. In addition, the WRF-CHEM model has been used to evaluate the responses of the surface PM2.5 level to the emission mitigation. Generally, the predicted PM2.5 spatial patterns and temporal variations agree well with the observations at the ambient monitoring sites. Sensitivity studies show that the emissions in the basin need to be mitigated by more than 91% to meet the excellent level of the China National Air Quality Standard under the extremely unfavorable meteorological conditions, demonstrating that it is imperative to implement stringent controls on emissions to improve the air quality.

Mesoscale predictability of moist baroclinic waves: Variable and scale-dependent error growth

This study seeks to quantify the predictability of different forecast variables at various scales through spectral analysis of the difference between perturbed and unperturbed cloud-permitting simulations of idealized moist baroclinic waves amplifying in a conditionally unstable atmosphere. The error growth of a forecast variable is found to be strongly associated with its reference-state (unperturbed) power spectrum and slope, which differ significantly from variable to variable. The shallower the reference state spectrum, the more spectral energy resides at smaller scales, and thus the less predictable the variable since the error grows faster at smaller scales before it saturates. In general, the variables with more small-scale components (such as vertical velocity) are less predictable, and vice versa (such as pressure). In higher-resolution simulations in which more rigorous small-scale instabilities become better resolved, the error grows faster at smaller scales and spreads to larger scales more quickly before the error saturates at those small scales during the first few hours of the forecast. Based on the reference power spectrum, an index on the degree of lack (or loss) of predictability (LPI) is further defined to quantify the predictive time scale of each forecast variable. Future studies are needed to investigate the scale- and variable-dependent predictability under different background reference flows, including real case studies through ensemble experiments.

Impacts of using an ensemble Kalman filter on air quality simulations along the California-Mexico border region during Cal-Mex 2010 field campaign.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) on air quality simulations in the California-Mexico border region on two days (May 30 and June 04, 2010) during Cal-Mex 2010. The uncertainties in ozone (O3) and aerosol simulations in the border area due to the meteorological initial uncertainties were examined through ensemble simulations. The ensemble spread of surface O3 averaged over the coastal region was less than 10ppb. The spreads in the nitrate and ammonium aerosols are substantial on both days, mostly caused by the large uncertainties in the surface temperature and humidity simulations. In general, the forecast initialized with the EnKF analysis (EnKF) improved the simulation of meteorological fields to some degree in the border region compared to the reference forecast initialized with NCEP analysis data (FCST) and the simulation with observation nudging (FDDA), which in turn leading to reasonable air quality simulations. The simulated surface O3 distributions by EnKF were consistently better than FCST and FDDA on both days. EnKF usually produced more reasonable simulations of nitrate and ammonium aerosols compared to the observations, but still have difficulties in improving the simulations of organic and sulfate aerosols. However, discrepancies between the EnKF simulations and the measurements were still considerably large, particularly for sulfate and organic aerosols, indicating that there are still ample rooms for improvement in the present data assimilation and/or the modeling systems.

Ensemble-Based Observation Targeting for Improving Ozone Prediction in Houston and the Surrounding Area

This study examines the effectiveness of targeted meteorological observations for improving ozone prediction in Houston and the surrounding area based on perfect-model simulation experiments. Supplementary observations are targeted for the location that has the highest impact factor (maximum Kalman gain) estimated from an ensemble and is expected to minimize ozone forecast uncertainty at the verification time. It is found that the observational impact factor field varies with time and is sensitive to ensemble resolutions and physics parameterizations. The efficiency of observation targeting is further examined through assimilating observations in areas with different impact factors using an ensemble Kalman filter. It is found that the ensemble sensitivity analysis is capable of locating supplementary observations that may reduce meteorological and ozone forecast error, but not as effectively as expected.

Impacts of local circulations on the wintertime air pollution in the Guanzhong Basin, China

Urbanization and industrialization in the recent 30years have caused frequent heavy haze pollution in the Guanzhong basin, China during wintertime. Based on the categorized large-scale synoptic situations, the local circulation and its impact on the air pollution in the basin have been investigated using observational data analyses and model simulations with the WRF-CHEM model. The simulated mountain-valley breeze circulations are well established under most of the large-scale synoptic situations in the south-north direction. The downward mountain-breeze not only causes the convergence zone in the basin but also tends to bring the pollutants back from the mountain areas to the basin and enhance pollutants concentrations in the evening. The intensity of the mountain-valley breeze circulations may be different under different synoptic situations, but in general, aside emissions, every pollution event is the synthetic result of the synoptic situation at the large scale and the local circulation at the small scale in the Guanzhong basin.

Impacts of sea-land and mountain-valley circulations on the air pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH): A case study

In the study, observational data analyses and the WRF-CHEM model simulations are used to investigate the role of sea-land and mountain-valley breeze circulations in a severe air pollution event occurred in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) during August 9-10, 2013. Both the wind observations and the model simulations have clearly indicated the evolution of the sea-land and mountain-valley breeze circulations during the event. The WRF-CHEM model generally reproduces the local meteorological circulations and also performs well in simulating temporal variations and spatial distributions of fine particulate matters (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) concentrations compared to observations in BTH. The model results have shown that the offshore land breeze transports the pollutants formed in Shandong province to the Bohai Gulf in the morning, causing the formation of high O3 and PM2.5 concentrations over the gulf. The onshore sea breeze not only causes the formation of a convergence zone to induce upward movement, mitigating the surface pollution to some degree, also recirculates the pollutants over the gulf to deteriorate the air quality in the coastal area. The upward valley breeze brings the pollutants in the urban area of Beijing to the mountain area in the afternoon, and the downward mountain breeze transports the pollutants back during nighttime. The intensity of the mountain-valley breeze circulation is weak compared to the land-sea breeze circulation in BTH. It is worth noting that the local circulations play an important role when the large-scale meteorological conditions are relatively weak.

Widespread air pollutants of the North China Plain during the Asian summer monsoon season: a case study

During the Asian summer monsoon season, prevailing southeasterly–southwesterly winds are subject to delivering air pollutants from the North China Plain (NCP) to northeast and northwest China. In the present study, the WRF-CHEM model is used to evaluate contributions of trans-boundary transport of NCP emissions to the air quality in northeast and northwest China during a persistent air pollution episode from 22 to 28 May 2015. The WRF-CHEM model generally performs well in capturing the observed temporal variation and spatial distribution of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), ozone (O3), and NO2. The simulated temporal variation of aerosol species is also in good agreement with measurements in Beijing during the episode. Model simulations show that NCP emissions contribute substantially to the PM2.5 level in Liaoning and Shanxi provinces, the adjacent downwind areas of the NCP, with an average of 24.2 and 13.9 μg m−3 during the episode, respectively. The PM2.5 contributions in Jilin and Shaanxi provinces are also appreciable, with an average of 9.6 and 6.5 μg m−3, respectively. The average percentage contributions of NCP emissions to the PM2.5 level in Liaoning, Jilin, Shanxi, and Shaanxi provinces are 40.6, 27.5, 32.2, and 20.9 %, respectively. The NCP emissions contribute remarkably to the O3 level in Liaoning province, with an average of 46.5 μg m−3, varying from 23.9 to 69.5 μg m−3. The O3 level in Shanxi province is also influenced considerably by NCP emissions, with an average contribution of 35.1 μg m−3. The O3 level in Shanxi province is also influenced considerably by NCP emissions, with an average contribution of 35.1 μg m−3. The average O3 contributions of NCP emissions to Jilin and Shaanxi provinces are 28.7 and 20.7 μg m−3, respectively. The average percentage contributions of NCP emissions to the afternoon O3 level in Liaoning, Jilin, Shanxi, and Shaanxi provinces are 27.4, 19.5, 21.2, and 15.8 %, respectively. However, the effect of NCP emissions on the air quality in Inner Mongolia is generally insignificant. Therefore, effective mitigation of NCP emissions not only improves the local air quality, but is also beneficial to the air quality in northeast and northwest China during the Asian summer monsoon season.