Nakul Saxena

Setting up a regional health system database for seamless population health management in Singapore

Objective: Understanding the health and health service utilization of the population is critical for Regional Health System’s (RHS) population health management (PHM) initiatives in Singapore. The RHS database is a collaborative effort toward developing a national architecture for healthcare utilization data across diverse clinical systems with disparate data models. This manuscript describes the setup of an RHS database which would facilitate big data analytics for proactive population health management and health services research. Materials and methods: The RHS database is a conglomeration of four isolated databases from the three RHSs. It contains linked National Healthcare Group (NHG) polyclinic visit records, specialist outpatient clinic visit records, hospital discharge records from Tan Tock Seng Hospital (TTSH), National University Hospital (NUH) and Alexandra Hospital (AH), chronic disease management system (CDMS) records and mortality records from local registries. The data linkage process was conducted using the unique identification number (NRIC) as the linking variable. The final anonymized database has multiple interconnected tables that includes patient demographics, chronic disease and healthcare utilization information. Results: Over 2.8 million patients had contact with the three RHSs from 2008 to 2013. The database facilitated risk stratification of patients based on their past healthcare utilization and chronic disease information. This database aids in understanding the cross-utilization of healthcare services across the three RHSs and can help address the challenges of setting up a distinct geographical boundary for individual RHSs. Conclusions: The RHS database has been established with the intention to support the secondary use of administrative health data in health services research and proactive PHM in Singapore.

Diabetes-related lower extremity amputations in Singapore

Background: Lower extremity amputation (LEA) is defined as the complete loss in the transverse anatomical plane of any part of the lower limb. The objective of this study is to look at the trend and mortality trend of LEA performed in diabetes patients from 2008 to 2013. Methods: All patients age 15 and above with diabetes mellitus who had undergone LEAs (both major and minor) in Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2013 were included. The outcomes of interest were deaths from all causes within 30 days and within 1 year. Results: Major LEA rate has increased from 11.0 per 100,000 population in 2008 to 13.3 per 100,000 population in 2013. The 30-day mortality rate ranges from 6.0% to 11.1% and the 1-year mortality rate ranges from 24.3% to 30.6%. Minor LEA rate has increased from 10.8 per 100,000 population in 2008 to 13.9 per 100,000 population in 2013. The 30-day mortality rate ranges from 1.5% to 3.7% and the 1-year mortality rate ranges from 9.7% to 18.3%. Conclusions: The trends in major and minor LEA are increasing. The 30-day and 1-year mortality for both major and minor LEA are comparable to figures reported worldwide. There is a need to re-look at preventive strategies to reduce LEA in diabetes patients in Singapore.

Online- and local area network (LAN)-based eLearning interventions for medical doctors' education

Pradeep Paul, Elicia Toon, Arash Hadadgar, Maria Jirwe, Nakul Saxena, Kenneth Teck Kiat Lim, Monika Semwal, LorainneTudor Car, Nabil Zary, Craig Lockwood, Josip Car

Virtual patient simulations for health professional education

his is the protocol for a review and there is no abstract. The objectives are as follows: The objective of this review is to evaluate the effectiveness of virtual patient simulation as an educational intervention versus traditional learning, other types of e-Learning interventions and other forms of virtual patient simulation interventions for delivering pre-registration and post-registration healthcare professional education. We will primarily assess the impact of these interventions on learners’ knowledge, skills and attitudes. Our secondary objective is to assess the cost-effectiveness of these interventions.

Burden of Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration and Its Economic Implications in Singapore in the Year 2030

ABSTRACT Purpose: To estimate the prevalence of wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in Singapore in the year 2030. This projection will help in planning appropriate care provision and build health services capacity to cater to the increasing healthcare demand in 2030. Methods: The number of AMD patients aged 40–79 years from all Singaporeans was estimated using prevalence rates from a local study and using the United Nations population projections for Singapore to 2030. Age-specific mortality was accounted for. Additionally, two main scenarios were presented: (1) Projected number of wet AMD cases if patients were not taking preventive antioxidant vitamins; (2) projected number of wet AMD cases if patients were taking preventive antioxidant vitamins. Based on these scenarios, the economic burden was calculated. The number of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained as a result of improvement in visual acuity (VA) due to anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) treatment was also calculated. Results: An estimated growth of 42% in the number of wet AMD cases is expected by 2030. The estimated economic burden of wet AMD in 2030 for scenarios 1 and 2 is Singapore

Annual all-cause mortality rate for patients with diabetic kidney disease in Singapore

203.1 million and

Cost-effectiveness of anti-oxidant vitamins plus zinc treatment to prevent the progression of intermediate age-related macular degeneration. A Singapore perspective

162.9 million, respectively. The QALYs gained as a result of improved VA from wet AMD treatment ranged from 10,114.4 to 14,058.8 over a 5-year period for the 2030 cohort. Conclusion: The burden of wet AMD is set to increase over the next 15 years. Appropriate measures to build healthcare capacity and plan for this expected surge in patients should be a priority in Singapore.

Effect of Asian BMI on risk of chronic disease progression: A Singapore perspective:

Highlights • We followed up a cohort of 3008 Type 2 DM patients with diabetic kidney disease.• We estimated the annual mortality rate by CKD stages.• Predictors of mortality were age, male gender, CKD stages and albuminuria.• Certain comorbid conditions and use of antiplatelet agents were predictors too.

Evaluation of an integrated primary care-led dementia shared care program in Singapore: An effectiveness and cost-effectiveness study: Primary care dementia clinic in Singapore

Purpose: To determine if providing high dose anti-oxidant vitamins and zinc treatment age-related eye disease study (AREDS formulation) to patients with intermediate age-related macular degeneration (AMD) aged 40–79 years from Singapore is cost-effective in preventing progression to wet AMD. Methods: A hypothetical cohort of category 3 and 4 AMD patients from Singapore was followed for 5 calendar years to determine the number of patients who would progress to wet AMD given the following treatment scenarios: (a) AREDS formulation or placebo followed by ranibizumab (as needed) for wet AMD. (b) AREDS formulation or placebo followed by bevacizumab (monthly) for wet AMD. (c) AREDS formulation or placebo followed by aflibercept (VIEW I and II trial treatment regimen). Costs were estimated for the above scenarios from the providers’ perspective, and cost-effectiveness was measured by cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted with a disability weight of 0.22 for wet AMD. The costs were discounted at an annual rate of 3%. Results: Over 5400 patients could be prevented from progressing to wet AMD cumulatively if AREDS formulation were prescribed. AREDS formulation followed by ranibizumab was cost-effective compared to placebo-ranibizumab or placebo-aflibercept combinations (cost per DALY averted: SGD

Effect of multimorbidity on survival of patients diagnosed with heart failure: a retrospective cohort study in Singapore

23,662.3 and SGD