Nancy J. Toombs

Recidivism Among Adolescent Serious Offenders Prediction of Entry Into the Correctional System for Adults

This is a 2-year follow-up study of 414 adolescents, age 17 years, to determine what static and dynamic factors predict recidivism or entry into the correctional system for adults. The strongest predictor is prior incarcerations, followed by age persons started committing crime, gang membership, age they started using alcohol/drugs, their MMPIpd scores, and chemical abuse score. The denial and asocial subscales of the Jesness Inventory and all the subscales of the Carlson Psychological Inventory are significantly associated with recidivism. Implications of the study are discussed.

From Adolescent "Serious Offender" to Adult Felon: A Predictive Study of Offense Progression.

Abstract This study of 248 adolescents who had been in a Serious Offender Program in the Arkansas Division of Youth Serivces (DYS) was designed to examine the relative predictiveness of (a) a common risk assessment tool, (b) a battery of psychological tests, and (c) a combination of demographic and theoretical factors. The criterion outcome or measure of recidivism was entry into the Arkansas correctional system for adults within a two-year follow-up period. Logistic regression procedures indicate that the following are significant predictors (in order of predictiveness): prior commitments to DYS, male, gang members, carry weapons, peers present during committing of-fense(s), age of first offense, age first used illicit drugs, persons of color, those who had been neglected or abused, youth from larger families, higher scores on the chemical abuse scale, higer scores on alienation, mother used illicit drugs, those who scored high on social maladjustment, more siblings, youth from families where one biological parent was not in the home most of the time, father used illicit drugs, high score on aggression scale, and high MMPI pd subscale scores. The risk assessment instrument used by the Arkansas DYS did not predict recidivism. Intervention implications of the study are discussed.

Religiosity and violence: Are they related after considering the strongest predictors?

Abstract The present study was designed to examine the significance of religiosity and of church attendance after considering the effects on violence of sociodemographic variables and elements of control, strain, and social learning theories. The sample was comprised of inmates, aged fifteen to forty-seven years, at the only boot camp for adults in Arkansas. Logistic regression procedures indicated that religiosity, and not church attendance, maintained a significant inverse relationship to violence after other study factors were held constant. Implications of these findings were discussed.

Survival Analysis of Recidivism of Male and Female Boot Camp Graduates Using Life-Course Theory.

Abstract This was a five-year follow-up study of 572 male and 120 female graduates of a boot camp in the South. The purpose was to examine what elements of life-course theory predict recidivism (felony conviction or parole violation), gender differences in predictors, and some issues regarding the effects of boot camp. Special emphasis was on perceptions of the boot camp experience by inmates, and on how sexual and physical abuses during different stages of the life span predict recidivism. Coxs Proportional-Hazards Model indicated that certain favorable perceptions of the boot camp program were associated with decreased hazard rates of recidivism, even after considering factors considered to be ameliorating experiences in life-course theory. Childhood sexual abuse, sexual and physical maltreatments in adolescence, and current sexual assaults are related to increases in the hazard rates of recidivism. In support of life-course theory, ameliorating experiences, such as having a conventional partner and full-time employment, did significantly reduce the hazard rates of most predictors studied. Finally, several gender differences relevant to questions about the utility and humanity of boot camps were discussed.

An Empirical Examination of Competing Theories in Predicting Recidivism of Adult Offenders Five Years After Graduation from Boot Camp

Abstract This was a five-year follow-up study of recidivism of 572 male graduates of the only boot camp for adults in a southern state. The purpose was to examine competing theories in predicting recidivism among these adult males. Elements of social learning and general theoretical models were tested to determine their relative prediction of return to Department of Correction (DOC) in a 5-year follow-up study. Using a proportional hazard rate analysis, the findings indicated that, contrary to well-accepted general theories, elements of social learning theory are among the strongest predictors of recidivism, which also include early experiences such as sexual and physical abuse and personality traits like immaturity and social maladjustment. In fact, differential peer association and normative definitions are the two top predictors. Implications of these findings for revisions of theory are discussed.

Two preeminent theoretical models: A proportional hazard rate analysis of recidivism

This was a three-year follow-up study of survival in the community without arrests or a parole violation of 480 male graduates of the only boot camp for adults in Arkansas. The purpose was to determine the relative viability of elements from social selection and social causation models in predicting this survival. Using a proportional hazard rate analysis, the findings indicated that elements of both models were significant predictors of survival. Attachment to caregivers, physical and sexual abuse during childhood, and various personality deficits were found to be useful predictors from the selection model, whereas beliefs, religiosity, caregiver monitoring, and various aspects of peer affiliations were predictors of survival from the causation model. Conceptual, methodological, and intervention implications of the findings were discussed.

Recidivism among boot camp graduates: A comparison of drug offenders to other offenders

Abstract This was a study of recidivism among 792 graduates of the only boot camp in Arkansas. Recidivism was operationalized with two measures in a six-month follow-up period and in a twelve-month follow-up period: (a) the number of months in the community after graduation from boot camp, and (b) return to the Department of Correction after graduation from the boot camp (yes versus no). Several demographic predictors were examined with ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and logistic regression. The primary predictors of recidivism were the type of offense(s) and race at both follow-up periods, and the number of infractions at the boot camp at twelve months. None of the predictors, however, accounted for much variance in recidivism. A recommendation is made that future investigations of recidivism among boot camp graduates consider more personal and interpersonal factors indicated by theory because of the homogeneity of most boot camp populations.

Testing theoretical models with reciprocal effects of drug use among boot camp participants using a developmental perspective

Abstract This was a study of 601 participants in the only boot camp in Arkansas, the purpose of which was to test two theoretical models composed of elements from control and social learning theories based on developmental perspectives. The hypothesized differences in the two theoretical models were: (a) it was hypothesized that religiosity and beliefs were the significant influences on peer associations and that both factors have reciprocal relationships with these associations, that there was a reciprocal relationship between peer association and alienation, and a bi-directional relationship between alienation and drug use among older offenders (aged 24 years or older); and (b) it was hypothesized that attachment to mother and physical abuse were the primary influences on peer association, that there was a reciprocal relationship between peer association and excuses, and a bi-directional relationship between excuses and drug use among younger offenders (aged 23 years or younger). Evidence indicates that the feedback effects of drug use on alienation or excuses were not significant, and beliefs did not influence peer associations among older offenders. Otherwise, the hypothesized theoretical models for the two age groups were supported, with the exception that drug use did not affect carrying a gun among older offenders, and did have a reciprocal relationship with selling drugs for both age groups. Practice implications were discussed.

Self-Control, Gender, and Age: A Survival Analysis of Recidivism among Boot Camp Graduates in a 5-Year Follow-Up.

Abstract This study of 572 male and 120 female graduates of a boot camp investigates the potency of self-control as a predictor of recidivism in comparison to gender, age, and elements of life-course theory. It also examines whether the effects of self-control on recidivism are commensurate within the categories of gender. Recidivism is defined as a felony conviction or parole violation in a 5-year follow-up period. Coxs Proportional-Hazards Models indicate that self-control, gender, and age are significant predictors of recidivism when they are considered separately, and self-control and gender remain significant predictors when they are analyzed simultaneously. Furthermore, analyses show that low self-control is a stronger predictor of recidivism among men than women. Low self-control is a significant predictor of recidivism after elements of life-course theory are added to an analysis that also includes age and gender. Implications of these findings for self-control theory are discussed.

Violent Youth in Boot Camps for Non-Violent Offenders.

Abstract The present study was designed to examine what sociodemographic and criminogenic factors discriminate between inmates in a boot camp for non-violent offenders who commit crimes against persons and other offenders. This boot camp was for first-admissions to the Department of Correction in Arkansas, and self-report data indicated that 69 percent of those inmates had 3 or more violent offenses prior to entering boot camp. Stepwise discriminant analysis indicated that the order of entry (from highest to lowest) of discriminators of violence was carrying a weapon, peer association with persons who engage in violence, more alcohol consumption, attempted suicide, younger age, use of amphetamines, persons of color, feelings of alienation, low self-esteem, and unprotected sex. The intervention implications of these findings were discussed.