Nancy Qian

On the Road: Access to Transportation Infrastructure and Economic Growth in China

This paper estimates the effect of access to transportation networks on regional economic outcomes in China over a twenty-period of rapid income growth. It addresses the problem of the endogenous placement of networks by exploiting the fact that these networks tend to connect historical cities. Our results show that proximity to transportation networks have a moderate positive causal effect on per capita GDP levels across sectors, but no effect on per capita GDP growth. We provide a simple theoretical framework with empirically testable predictions to interpret our results. We argue that our results are consistent with factor mobility playing an important role in determining the economic benefits of infrastructure development.

The Institutional Causes of China's Great Famine, 1959-1961

This article studies the causes of Chinas Great Famine, during which 16.5 to 45 million individuals perished in rural areas. We document that average rural food retention during the famine was too high to generate a severe famine without rural inequality in food availability; that there was significant variance in famine mortality rates across rural regions; and that rural mortality rates were positively correlated with per capita food production, a surprising pattern that is unique to the famine years. We provide evidence that an inflexible and progressive government procurement policy (where procurement could not adjust to contemporaneous production and larger shares of expected production were procured from more productive regions) was necessary for generating this pattern and that this policy was a quantitatively important contributor to overall famine mortality.

The Institutional Causes of China's Great Famine, 1959-61

This paper investigates the institutional causes of Chinas Great Famine. It presents two empirical findings: 1) in 1959, when the famine began, food production was almost three times more than population subsistence needs; and 2) regions with higher per capita food production that year suffered higher famine mortality rates, a surprising reversal of a typically negative correlation. A simple model based on historical institutional details shows that these patterns are consistent with the policy outcomes in a centrally planned economy in which the government is unable to easily collect and respond to new information in the presence of an aggregate shock to production.

The Institutional Causes of China’s Great Famine

This paper presents new facts about China’s Great Famine and develops a theory of famine to explain them. First, in 1959, when the famine began, food production was almost three times more than population subsistence needs. Second, we uncover a very surprising fact: regions with higher per capita food production that year suffered higher famine mortality rates, a reversal of the typically negative correlation. Existing theories for famine cannot easily explain this puzzling pattern. Therefore, we develop a theory of government policy under central planning where policy is inflexible because the government is unable to easily collect and respond to new information. In the presence of an aggregate shock to production, a famine with the spatial patterns we uncover can occur. The model also provides a unified framework that illustrates the contributions of other existing explanations in amplifying the magnitude of the famine. Moreover, it allows us to assess the benefits of price versus quantity controls in the Chinese context.

Life Cycle Wage Growth across Countries

This paper documents how life cycle wage growth varies across countries. We harmonize repeated cross-sectional surveys from a set of countries of all income levels and then measure how wages rise with potential experience. Our main finding is that experience-wage profiles are on average twice as steep in rich countries as in poor countries. In addition, more educated workers have steeper profiles than the less educated; this accounts for around one-third of cross-country differences in aggregate profiles. Our findings are consistent with theories in which workers in poor countries accumulate less human capital or face greater search frictions over the life cycle.

Political Reform in China: Elections, Public Goods and Income Distribution

This study investigates the effects of introducing elections on public good expenditures, income distribution and land use in rural China. We collect a large and unique survey to document the history of political reforms and economic policies and exploit the staggered timing of the introduction of elections for causal identification. We find that elections significantly increase public goods expenditure funded by villagers, reduce the income of the richest households in each village and reduce the amount of village land that is leased away from household farming.

Life-Cycle Human Capital Accumulation Across Countries: Lessons From U.S. Immigrants

This paper assesses cross-country variation in life-cycle human capital accumulation, using new evidence from US immigrants. The returns to experience accumulated in an immigrant’s birth country before migrating are positively correlated with birth-country GDP per capita. To understand this fact, we build a model of life-cycle human capital accumulation that features three potential theories: differential human capital accumulation, differential selection, and differential skill loss. We use new data on the characteristics of immigrants and nonmigrants from a large set of countries to distinguish between these theories. The most likely theory is that immigrants from poor countries accumulate less human capital in their birth countries before migrating. Our findings imply that life-cycle human capital stocks are much larger in rich countries.

Economic Transition and Private-Sector Labor Demand: Evidence from Urban China

This paper studies the policy determinants of economic transition and estimates the demand for labor in the infant private sector in urban China. We show that a reform that untied access to housing in urban areas from working for the state sector accounts for more than a quarter of the overall increase in labor supply to the private sector during 1986-2005. Using the reform to instrument for private-sector labor supply, we find that private-sector labor demand is very elastic. We provide suggestive evidence that the reform equalized wages across sectors and reduced private-sector rents.

The Dynamic Effects of Computerized VAT Invoices on Chinese Manufacturing Firms

This paper uses a balanced panel of large manufacturing firms to study the dynamic effects of computerizing VAT invoices on tax revenues and firm behavior in China, 1998-2007. We find that computerization explains 10.8% of cumulative VAT revenues and increases the effective average tax rate by approximately 9-12% in the seven subsequent years. The evidence suggests that the effects of computerization change over time: tax revenue gains are likely to be smaller in the long run. Meanwhile, firms reduce output and input, and increase productivity monotonically over time.This paper documents that an increase in the enforcement of VAT caused by the adoption of a new technology significantly increased payments by large firms. The reform contributed to 23.5% of VAT revenues and 11.2% of total government revenues in the five subsequent years. The main mechanism was a reduction in (formerly exaggerated) deductions. The dynamic effects of the reform suggest that the rise in tax revenues is non-monotonic over time, with large short-run gains and smaller, though still positive, long-run gains. The reform also reduced firm revenues and inputs, and increased productivity.